Bernardini/Smarty revisited?

[kgar311]

They will do everything in their power out there to make sure he loses. Pin him down on the rail. If he tries to get out front you'll see a couple go after him. He isnt racing against 3 or 5 horses in this race and he definatley wont have it his own way. Bombs away when he doesnt it the board!

[Thunder Gulch]

If he didn't hit the board, there will be some huge tickets out there because I suspect every exotic will be keyed off of him.

[Cajungator26]

Sorry guys, but I don't see them doing this.

And IMO, Bernardini did NOT look all that great on The Works. They were schooling him in the gate yesterday, too... kinda odd, isn't it?

[kgar311]

Originally Posted by Cajungator26

Sorry guys, but I don't see them doing this.

And IMO, Bernardini did NOT look all that great on The Works. They were schooling him in the gate yesterday, too... kinda odd, isn't it?

You dont think if they have a chance to pin him down on the rail they wont do it??? Do you also think they would let him lose on the lead? If they are working him from the gate they are probably going to try and get him out of there fairly quickly. Hopefully I will see you tomorrow and we can discuss this face to face.

[Cajungator26]

Originally Posted by kgar311

You dont think if they have a chance to pin him down on the rail they wont do it??? Do you also think they would let him lose on the lead? If they are working him from the gate they are probably going to try and get him out of there fairly quickly. Hopefully I will see you tomorrow and we can discuss this face to face.

I just don't think they're going to risk an honest to God chance at winning the BCC by burning out Bernardini (who, I don't think has as good a chance here as most people think.) It amazes me that Lava Man is being ignored when he is training BRILLIANTLY and looks much the best, but whatever. I will be up at the Racebook by 2pm. If you're there, I'll see you.

[kgar311]

Originally Posted by Cajungator26

I just don't think they're going to risk an honest to God chance at winning the BCC by burning out Bernardini (who, I don't think has as good a chance here as most people think.) It amazes me that Lava Man is being ignored when he is training BRILLIANTLY and looks much the best, but whatever. I will be up at the Racebook by 2pm. If you're there, I'll see you.

Lava is a very nice horse but the whole running up the track thing outside of Cali scares alot of people. Also it didnt look to me that Lava was 100% in his last. He won but something didnt look right to me. Im going to go out on a limb here and give you a horse with alot of talent but not alot of heart and he decides to run tomorrow will hit the board at a huge price. Suave.

[Cajungator26]

Originally Posted by kgar311

Lava is a very nice horse but the whole running up the track thing outside of Cali scares alot of people. Also it didnt look to me that Lava was 100% in his last. He won but something didnt look right to me. Im going to go out on a limb here and give you a horse with alot of talent but not alot of heart and he decides to run tomorrow will hit the board at a huge price. Suave.

He's only had one start since July, which is a negative for him, but his work a few days ago was very nice...

It wouldn't surprise me in the slightest bit if he hit the board, but I'm going to take my chances and say that he's not the winner.

[Revolution]

Bernardini is much better than Smarty. He has proven he can run on the lead or just off of it. It is much harder to burn out a horse in a 10f race than a 12f race too. Smarty had a problem relaxing too, something Bernardini does not have.

It isn't like Bernardini has already beaten Invasor, Lava Man, George Washington, David Junior, etc. He has beaten mediocre horses, and these here are all group/grade 1 winners themselves. I am sure many think their horse is just as good, and they would never ruin there chance of winning to make sure he didn't win.

Based on speed figures of the american horses and based on David Junior and George Washington's raw talent, Bernardini does not stand that much above this field.

If he runs what he has been running, he is very beatable. The feeling is though that he hasn't shown his best, and that is why he is such a heavy favorite.

He is a very shaky even money choice if you ask me. I think a horse like Ouija Board stands over her field a lot more than Bernardini. With a giving turf course, there is no filly with a shot against Ouija.