Gambling and taxes

[Indian Charlie]

Originally Posted by pweizer

Future bets in general are bad bets. Ask any race book manager whether these are hugely profitable for them. I assure you that we all know the answer.

Your claim that they are good bets are based on you hitting a bet about 20 years ago as well as the fact that you got 100-1 on a horse who never made the race.

The Eskendereya example is a perfect illustration. Did you get good value when you made the bet? Yes. Would I have taken that bet a few weeks out from the Derby? Yes. But, in the end, did you cash the ticket? The simple answer is no. There is no value in a losing ticket.

Future bets are sucker bets because you are betting on a horse who may never run. Unlike race day, there are no scratches or refunds. How many examples do we have in the last few years alone where probable favorites scratch from the Derby in the weeks or days leading up to the race. It is not just Eskendereya. Would you have taken 100-1 on I Want Revenge or Uncle Mo in April?

People will hit future bets. Sometimes they hit for serious money. But far more often than not, they will lose. Call me a bozo, but I usually like to know something about the race track, the track conditions, the post positions, and whether a horse will actually run before betting. This game is hard enough with that knowledge.

I will renew my original offer. Pick any horse from the Wynn list and I will happily book any and all future bets.

Paul

It's the indiscriminate use of future books that makes it lucrative for the casinos. Someone who is patient and prudent with their selections can make gigantic scores.

Your description of what entails value is ridiculous. Are you really saying that any bet that loses offered no value???????? That would also mean that any horse you bet that wins, say even at 1/9 in a 12 horse field, offers value!

Obviously the downside with future book bets is the no refund policy, but without that, you'd be getting nowhere near the same odds.

There is also the ride you get from having a future bet six months out. The action. Instead of just having action on a horse for 30 minutes prior to post and than the ensuing two minutes, this way, as the horse moves towards the Derby, you get a lot of excitement and thrill from that.

When I bet Indian Charlie at 150/1 in August, I felt like I was getting over on Vegas. When he finally made his second start in February, I knew my analysis on him was right and I did enjoy the ride he gave me from there on towards the Derby. Was I disappointed he lost? Yes, absolutely. But I got him at 150/1 instead of around 2/1, and win or lose, I got stupendous value.

The only other three horses I've bet in the Derby futures were Snow Chief, Congaree, and stupidly, a horse named Cliquot. I got large odds on all three, and of the three, only the Cliquot bet was stupid, being sort of a whim bet.

People who play eight horses in the futures, yeah, I'll agree with you on that, they are throwing away their money.

I almost played a future on Fusaichi Pegasus before his debut, but apparently, if I got word on that horse being better than AP Indy (according to the Drysdale camp), everyone else did as well. Oh well.