BC Classic after 6 furlongs based on pace figures

[RockHardTen1985]

Originally Posted by Calzone Lord

Assuming everyone has an even start, is ridden with the normal riding tactics, and runs their average type of race -- this is how the field should be postitioned as they cross the half mile pole based on pace figures.


Game On Dude: (Joint leader)
Uncle Mo: (Joint leader)
To Honor And Serve: (3rd by 1.5 lengths)
Stay Thirsty: (4th by 2.75 lengths)
Havre De Grace: (5th by 3.5 lengths)
Flat Out: (6th by 4.5 lengths)
Rattlesnake Bridge: (7th by 7 lengths)
Ruler On Ice: (8th by 9.25 lengths)
Drosselmeyer: (9th by 10 lengths)
Prayer For Relief: (Joint 10th by 11 lengths)
Headache: (Joint 10th by 11 lengths)
Ice Box: (12th by 14 lengths)
So You Think: ????

How about at 10f?

[Calzone Lord]

Originally Posted by RockHardTen1985

How about at 10f?

I only bother with the pace calls.

However, at 10fs -- it's basically a two horse race between Flat Out and Havre De Grace with Uncle Mo the only true wildcard on the win end.

[RockHardTen1985]

Originally Posted by Calzone Lord

I only bother with the pace calls.

However, at 10fs -- it's basically a two horse race between Flat Out and Havre De Grace with Uncle Mo the only true wildcard on the win end.

Am I wrong to think that at this distance, with this pace that Havre De Grace wont be in the triple? It feels like Flat Out or Mo to me.

[Calzone Lord]

I think Headache is the one horse who has run a lot of races that are better than looked on paper.

I just can't imagine how he's going to pass 10 horses and make up 10 or so lengths on the final four furlongs... but he won't be stopping.

Flat Out is the only horse I think you can trust in regard to a top 3 finish.

[Indian Charlie]

These projections seem unrealistic.

[Calzone Lord]

Originally Posted by Indian Charlie

These projections seem unrealistic.

Why?

[Indian Charlie]

Originally Posted by Calzone Lord

Why?

I think THAS, FO and HDG will likely be further back then those projections indicate.

Probably ST as well.

Maybe I'll feel differently once the PPs are released.

[Sightseek]

Originally Posted by Calzone Lord

I think Headache is the one horse who has run a lot of races that are better than looked on paper.

I just can't imagine how he's going to pass 10 horses and make up 10 or so lengths on the final four furlongs... but he won't be stopping.

Flat Out is the only horse I think you can trust in regard to a top 3 finish.

This is like Stately Victor all over again. Do you have a man-crush on Maker?

[Calzone Lord]

Originally Posted by Sightseek

This is like Stately Victor all over again. Do you have a man-crush on Maker?

He also trained Further Land now that you mention it.

[Sightseek]

Originally Posted by Calzone Lord

He also trained Further Land now that you mention it.

I like his longshots on synthetic better than other surfaces.