8/27 (SAR): Travers, King's Bishop, Ballerina, Victory Ride, Ballston

[RolloTomasi]

Originally Posted by pick4

I hope I'm not falliing into the wise guy horse with Raison d'Etat. I see a well bred horse with a lot of upside potential. The key thing is this field is filled with mediocre horses. Bill Mott usually enters horses in stakes races where he thinks he has a shot. Raison d' Etat will have to raise his game to win this but why not? Shackleford might not last the distance, Ruler on Ice probably got lucky in the Belmont, Stay Thirsty ran well in the Jim Dandy but who did he beat? Coil is coming off an injury. I'm going to take a chance on Raison d'Etat and hope for the best.

I thought he looked terrible down the stretch in the Curlin, not like a horse on the improve. His maiden win was nice, and highly rated, but talk about a ragtag field.

Bill Mott had enough sense to put To Honor And Serve in allowance company (no mean feat with the colt owning 3 lifetime wins). How hard would it have been to get Raison d'Etat into a first condition allowance?

What injury is Coil coming off of?

[keithting]

I kinda like JW Blue as a longshot possibility in the Travers - if he gets a clean break - working steadily coming off freshening, blinkers off should help.....

[ateamstupid]

Sure seems like the pace in the Travers is going to be a crawl. If Shackleford is ever going to win a 10-furlong race, this is the one.

[Clip-Clop]

Originally Posted by ateamstupid

Sure seems like the pace in the Travers is going to be a crawl. If Shackleford is ever going to win a 10-furlong race, this is the one.

He seemed to run better when the pace was faster. His Haskell was great put the pace was punishing in the Preakness and he finished up there. I do think this will be his race to lose, but I think he needs to go 1:11 or faster to make it so.

[Travis Stone]

Originally Posted by Clip-Clop

He seemed to run better when the pace was faster. His Haskell was great put the pace was punishing in the Preakness and he finished up there. I do think this will be his race to lose, but I think he needs to go 1:11 or faster to make it so.

My biggest pet peeve with pace setters is when the jockey backs down the pace and does a fantastic job of moderating the tempo, only to let the other horses get right up to his neck on the far turn, which basically eliminates the advantage. Rarely does a pacesetter lose the lead and then come back to win, unless you're talking about a significant class/ability edge.

I wish they would step on it a bit sooner, open-up and then in the stretch, when everyone is tired, see if they can hold off any closers... which is hard to do - pass horses when you're spent.

[Clip-Clop]

Originally Posted by Travis Stone

My biggest pet peeve with pace setters is when the jockey backs down the pace and does a fantastic job of moderating the tempo, only to let the other horses get right up to his neck on the far turn, which basically eliminates the advantage. Rarely does a pacesetter lose the lead and then come back to win, unless you're talking about a significant class/ability edge.

I wish they would step on it a bit sooner, open-up and then in the stretch, when everyone is tired, see if they can hold off any closers... which is hard to do - pass horses when you're spent.

I thought that was where Quality Road went wrong last year and got caught.

[ellpol]

Originally Posted by Travis Stone

My biggest pet peeve with pace setters is when the jockey backs down the pace and does a fantastic job of moderating the tempo, only to let the other horses get right up to his neck on the far turn, which basically eliminates the advantage. Rarely does a pacesetter lose the lead and then come back to win, unless you're talking about a significant class/ability edge.

I wish they would step on it a bit sooner, open-up and then in the stretch, when everyone is tired, see if they can hold off any closers... which is hard to do - pass horses when you're spent.

Since you call hundreds maybe thousands of races per year your assesment carries far more weight than the opinion of most other observers. Also since I agree with you 100% you must be right. Actually I have often mentioned that exact thing to several of my degenerate friends and they tell me leave the riding to the jockeys. I am printing this off so I can show them I am not alone. Thanks Travis.

[ateamstupid]

Pretty damn impressive race from To Honor and Serve.

[Rudeboyelvis]

[quote=RolloTomasi;802999]I thought he looked terrible down the stretch in the Curlin, not like a horse on the improve. His maiden win was nice, and highly rated, but talk about a ragtag field.

Bill Mott had enough sense to put To Honor And Serve in allowance company (no mean feat with the colt owning 3 lifetime wins). How hard would it have been to get Raison d'Etat into a first condition allowance?

What injury is Coil coming off of?[/QUOTE]

Maybe this? Dunno either - hadn't heard anything...

From BRISnet -

Baffert said that Coil scratched his right eye at some point after his most recent work, a six-furlong drill in 1:13 last Wednesday, but that the injury has been improving.

"Coil's eye is getting better," Baffert said. "He scratched it somehow after I left and has a small ulcer. I'm going to breeze him after the break on Tuesday and make the call. It's always something."

Baffert's assistant Jim Barnes said he has been keeping the eye covered and out of direct sunlight, and that the ulcer was on the colt's cornea.

"We're not sure how it came up, if he scratched it in the work, bumped it in the stall or what," Barnes said. "You have to very careful, but it looks like it's doing fine."

[Rootdog1]

I agree with you, if you look at the Preakness he had pace to stalk then opened up on the turn and just tried to hold on. That strategy works, but the problem is I think he gets lazy/distracted/pulls himself up if he doesnt have a target for a portion of the race (which is the case Sat).

[Clip-Clop]

Originally Posted by Rootdog1

I agree with you, if you look at the Preakness he had pace to stalk then opened up on the turn and just tried to hold on. That strategy works, but the problem is I think he gets lazy/distracted/pulls himself up if he doesnt have a target for a portion of the race (which is the case Sat).

Should lock up then and keep a horse next to him for a while then on the turn, he certainly does not like to be passed.