Premium Tap to Classic?

[slotdirt]

I love that stat on Jockey Club Gold Cup winners and the Classic. I mentioned that last year and was laughed at on ESPN. Obviously Bernardini and Borrego are different animals, but still, Borrego's last prep looked even more effortless against a far superior field last year than Bernardini did this year. Just throwing that out there.

[1st_Saturday_in_May]

Prado gets the mount...interesting

[blackthroatedwind]

Premium Tap has a chance in the Classic?

Not likely. Haven't seen the field but it's hard to think off-hand of any horse with less of a chance. Hell, if Ouiji Board ran she would have a better chance of winning. Not that she rates to finish ahead of him but at least she's an unknown quantity. Premium Tap has ZERO chance.

[pmayjr]

Look, whteher it was Desormeaux's fault or not, Premium Tap had a big closing kick (against a weak field I know...), so I'd try him oin the Clasic. It's not out of the question that he could run with these guys. I'd take Desormeaux off of him for sho though! But I hope he runs in the Classic. He'll be coming late.

Well there's another horse I can throwout.

I have seen quotes from Kimmel stating that he does not wish to face Bernardini. What changed? Bernardini still seems like Bernardini. Perhaps Kimmel now realizes the money to be made coming second through ?

[Dunbar]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

Premium Tap has ZERO chance.

That's about as silly as someone saying Pegasus Wind had no chance in the Champagne.

--Dunbar

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by Dunbar

That's about as silly as someone saying Pegasus Wind had no chance in the Champagne.

--Dunbar

No, my comments are being made before the race. He is too slow, he is distance challenged, and he is pretty much a need the lead type. Nothing about him suits this race.

He has ZERO chance and is the kind of horse people only pick on the internet and don't back with their wallets. He will be 40-1 or more and should be every bit of that.

My understanding is that Prado was aboard for the work and he looked exceptional. He will be a big price and would need a ton of luck, but he is not without a chance, given that many in the classic appear to be over the top. BBB

[Dunbar]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

No, my comments are being made before the race. He is too slow, he is distance challenged, and he is pretty much a need the lead type. Nothing about him suits this race.

He has ZERO chance and is the kind of horse people only pick on the internet and don't back with their wallets. He will be 40-1 or more and should be every bit of that.

The only sentence I agree with is the first. I'm not sure about the last.

One thing I am certain of is that he has more than a "zero" chance. If you don't understand that, then you are not as sharp as I thought you were.

I can assure you I will be backing him with my wallet if I see 40-1. I think he has better than a 2.5% chance to win. I'd also take 10-1 that he finishes in front of Bernardini and 4-1 that he finishes in front of any other individual horse in the race. Those are numbers I'm SURE I'd take. I may be willing to go much lower in the matchups.

--Dunbar

Originally Posted by Dunbar

The only sentence I agree with is the first. I'm not sure about the last.

One thing I am certain of is that he has more than a "zero" chance. If you don't understand that, then you are not as sharp as I thought you were.

I can assure you I will be backing him with my wallet if I see 40-1. I think he has better than a 2.5% chance to win. I'd also take 10-1 that he finishes in front of Bernardini and 4-1 that he finishes in front of any other individual horse in the race. Those are numbers I'm SURE I'd take. I may be willing to go much lower in the matchups.

--Dunbar

I think his only chance would be if the starting gate malfunctions and his gate is the only one that opens. No way Jose.

[blackthroatedwind]

OK...a number approaching zero which I personally believe is less than 2.5% ( though with takeout I was really saying his actual representative chances would be under 2%...wouldn't want to drop too far down in your esteem ).

I would say he is considerably more than 10-1 to beat Bernardini. I mean even if he's 4%, do you really think Bernardini is under 40% ( yeah, I know, that would theoretically be 9-1 ). And he is probably more than 4-1 to beat Invasor and Lava Man but I can see how it's close.

The problem with a horse like Premium Tap in match-ups ( and I'm sure I don't have to explain this to you ) is that he has a running style for this race that makes even a reasonable finish difficult. He figures to have to fight it out at least reasonably early with some of the top guns and still have enough left to deal with the decent closers.

Truly, the above argument is also why I say he has " no " chance in the race. First of all, while I do think he's improved, and publically said before the Woodward he was the one longshot I would recommend in the race, he does not fit the race dynamics along with being too slow.