Derby Trail Next Start-Likely/Possible

[RolloTomasi]

Originally Posted by parsixfarms

Would any of those horses be less than 20-1, even in this watered down field?

I believe that the field size restriction has been in place since the 1970s; it's only in the past decade or so, when decisions about entering the Derby seem to be more about "do I qualify" than "do I fit," that a twenty-horse field has become the norm.

Yeah, I was confused about the field size issue. I guess they were looking to restrict it even further in the wake of Eight Belles. Had it in my head that there were more than 20 horses a couple of times in the '80s.

Anyways, the main point is that horses like Brilliant Speed and Animal Kingdom don't deserve to be in the race over several other horses just because they won irrelevant races that used to be important preps. If they were viable contenders all along, then they would have been in races like the Fountain of Youth or the Holy Bull. Clearly they were entered in the Kentucky races because of the popular notion that turf form translates to polytrack. Now they get a free ride to Churchill likely to end with a "no factor" running line.

While the horses I mentioned aren't top contenders, at least a couple of them potentially could hit the board. I'm sure bettors, particularly exotics players, would be more interested in those with at least some dirt form than horses that are practically automatic tosses.