Updated Derby Chances - Prep Recap

[miraja2]

Originally Posted by paulo537

"Most likely winner."

"Fair Value favorite."

"Highest percentage likelihood to win."

"Horse to beat."

Is there really any difference? If there is, I don't know it. Perhaps upon his return DrugS will toss me a clue.

Again, as I've already stated, I guess everybody has their own opinion of what an expression like that means. To me, "horse to beat" means a horse that is likely to win the race. Saying that you think there's an 80+% chance that the horse won't win strikes me as something quite different.
Personally I don't know what to think of Mo's chances in the race. I doubt if I bet him, but I can't really blame people who do because at least he's actually run a fast route race before in his life.....something which the overwhelming majority of this field has NEVER done.