Updated Derby Chances - Prep Recap

[paulo537]

Originally Posted by miraja2

Are people really saying that?
I guess everybody has their own definition of what "horse to beat" means but I don't see anybody in this thread saying he's the "horse to beat." You might think DrugS gave him too high of a chance to win on his list, and you might be right, but based on his percentages he is still saying he thinks there's over an 80% chance that Uncle Mo will NOT win the Derby. To me, that isn't exactly a huge endorsement of Mo or constitute "basically" calling him the horse to beat.

"Most likely winner."

"Fair Value favorite."

"Highest percentage likelihood to win."

"Horse to beat."

Is there really any difference? If there is, I don't know it. Perhaps upon his return DrugS will toss me a clue.

And really, it's nothing other than internet talk about one race. Not incredibly important but when you still think U Mo is the likeliest winner 3 weeks out with what is known AND when you categorize people who disagree with you with various cognomens, you can't be totally shocked when you are offered a small taste of what your own cooking.

[miraja2]

Originally Posted by paulo537

"Most likely winner."

"Fair Value favorite."

"Highest percentage likelihood to win."

"Horse to beat."

Is there really any difference? If there is, I don't know it. Perhaps upon his return DrugS will toss me a clue.

Again, as I've already stated, I guess everybody has their own opinion of what an expression like that means. To me, "horse to beat" means a horse that is likely to win the race. Saying that you think there's an 80+% chance that the horse won't win strikes me as something quite different.
Personally I don't know what to think of Mo's chances in the race. I doubt if I bet him, but I can't really blame people who do because at least he's actually run a fast route race before in his life.....something which the overwhelming majority of this field has NEVER done.

[estreetposse]

I'm confused...is Mawhip a he or a she?

[Indian Charlie]

Originally Posted by paulo537

And really, it's nothing other than internet talk about one race. Not incredibly important but when you still think U Mo is the likeliest winner 3 weeks out with what is known AND when you categorize people who disagree with you with various cognomens, you can't be totally shocked when you are offered a small taste of what your own cooking.

Listen up.

It's not that he disagrees. It's that he constantly harps on and on about it, and he also totally misses the point of what was trying to be said in the post in the first place. If he would take more than a quarter of a second to try to understand that post instead of responding with his usual knee jerk nonsense, maybe I and most other people would be spared his drivel.

By the way, I am dazzled by your ability to work cognomen into a sentence.