Derby and Performance Figures

[somerfrost]

Originally Posted by Port Conway Lane

Well BSF's could "thin the herd" as well. You are eliminating 3/4 of the field for the win position. That could show me a flat win bet profit roughly 75% of the time provided the winner pays at least $11. A 9-1 shot doubles my money when I bet five horses to win and a 19-1 shot gets me back 3-1 on my money. I wouldn't be surprised if the drf speed figure plus track variant could achieve the same "thinning of the herd".

Again, you are missing the point, using all 5 horses based on this one factor is not my suggestion. There are other factors to consider. When I look at the Derby, I consider this factor, Number of points in horse's DP, number of 3yo preps, races as 2yo, time between last prep and Derby, breeding on both sire and dam side and other factors....then again, sometimes I go with a gut feeling, for example I am waiting this year to hear whether Master of Hounds is coming over...he doesn't fit via PF's, # of 3yo races and other factors but he still interests me. PF's are a tool...one of many!