Offshore Derby odds

[The Indomitable DrugS]

You think 20/1 on Stay Thirsty is an overlay???

Jesus.

In other words - you're saying his chances of winning the KY Derby right now are clearly greater than 5%.

[VOL JACK]

I think he is getting "overlay and underlay" confused (reversed)....

[justindew]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

You think 20/1 on Stay Thirsty is an overlay???

Jesus.

In other words - you're saying his chances of winning the KY Derby right now are clearly greater than 5%.

This might be a case of someone not knowing definitions of the terms underlay and overlay, and having them reversed.

[-BT-]

Originally Posted by justindew

This might be a case of someone not knowing definitions of the terms underlay and overlay, and having them reversed.

correct... adjusted

sorry about that

-bt-

[Dunbar]

Originally Posted by -BT-

5712 Elite Alex +2550 *UNDERLAY
** just noticed he's 43 on the graded earnings @ only +2550, head scratcher

Welcome to the often wacky world of offshore futures. The sportsbook Bookmaker (formerly CRIS), generally considered once of the sharpest, is still offering 17-1 on To Honor and Serve and a lousy 15-1 on Premier Pegasus. You'd think they could be more generous on horses that will definitely not run. They are still listing odds on about 150 horses, beginning with Aces and Kings at 250-1. In the past Bookmaker/CRIS has left odds up on dead horses for weeks. And I don't mean figuratively "dead". I mean literally dead.

Among the 150 horses in Bookmaker's list you can occasionally find something worthwhile. There are 4 horses with odds higher than TheGreek's. 3 of them are the horses you marked as "underlays". Bookmaker has:

Elite Alex 27-1
Stay Thirsty 33-1
Mucho Macho Man 22-1

In addition, Bookmaker has Midnight Interlude at 25-1, which would be an overlay according to DrugS's line and would be tempting to me if I wasn't already maxed out by my Future Wager bets.

If I combine those 4 horses' odds with the other 22 from The Greek, the combined line has a 5% takeout. (but again, it doesn't include every horse that might run in the Derby.)



--Dunbar