3-year-old Recap - Updated Derby Chances

[Indian Charlie]

What about Glickman?

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Originally Posted by Indian Charlie

What about Glickman?

Any horse connected to Pippy is a danger!

[GPK]

Your obvious bias and love for Joe Vann is unbecoming of you.

[Indian Charlie]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

Any horse connected to Pippy is a danger!

Castro thought he could have won the Bay Shore

[NTamm1215]

Originally Posted by Indian Charlie

Castro thought he could have won the Bay Shore

I always thought Castro was an idiot.

[Indian Charlie]

Originally Posted by NTamm1215

I always thought Castro was an idiot.

Me too, and Ive never even met him.

I didn't like his ride on Glickman today, and neither did Pippy.

[philcski]

BRING BACK THE FAT MAN!

I need my Fat Charts

[Dunbar]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

Uncle Mo (18.50%)
Dialed In (14.50%)
The Factor (12.50%)
Midnight Interlude (7.50%)
Elite Alex (6%)
Toby's Corner (4.50%)
Mucho Macho Man (4.25%)
Silver Medallion (4%)
Soldat (3.5%)
Sheckleford (3.25%)
Santiva (2.50%)
Archarcharch (2.50%)
Sway Away (2.50%)
Jaycito (2.00%)
Nehro (1.75%)
Astrology (1.50%)
Mr. Commons (1%)
Arthur's Tale (1%)
Decisive Moment (0.80%)
Pants on Fire (0.80%)
Animal Kingdom (0.80%)
Bretheren (0.50%)
Stay Thirsty (0.33%)
Twice the Appeal (0.25%)
Joe Vann (0.25%)
Watch Me Go (0.05%)

The Rest: 3.75%

DrugS, in your first list on Mar 12, you listed 27 horses, and you gave "The Rest" a 5% chance to win. I posted that I thought 5% was much too low a figure. You disagreed.

In your current list, there are 9 horses individually listed that came from "The Rest" of your 3/12 list, and you are now giving them a combined chance of winning of about 15.5%. And there is still another 3.75% chance given to the current "Rest" of the horses. That suggests that the horses in your 3/12 "The Rest" group had a 19% chance to win, not a 5% chance to win.

btw, I like these efforts a lot. It beats the hell out of someone posting "I really like so-and-so" or "so-and-so has no chance".

--Dunbar

[Indian Charlie]

Hindsight.

[DaTruth]

Originally Posted by Dunbar

DrugS, in your first list on Mar 12, you listed 27 horses, and you gave "The Rest" a 5% chance to win. I posted that I thought 5% was much too low a figure. You disagreed.

In your current list, there are 9 horses individually listed that came from "The Rest" of your 3/12 list, and you are now giving them a combined chance of winning of about 15.5%. And there is still another 3.75% chance given to the current "Rest" of the horses. That suggests that the horses in your 3/12 "The Rest" group had a 19% chance to win, not a 5% chance to win.

btw, I like these efforts a lot. It beats the hell out of someone posting "I really like so-and-so" or "so-and-so has no chance".

--Dunbar

I'm sure he is up all night trying to decide whether he should give a horse a 1% chance or a 0.8% chance.