Late Pace Figures for Derby Preps

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Originally Posted by Thunder Gulch

If you are talking 2nd call to wire, I understand what you are saying about closers having no shot when the late fig is higher, but what if it's the closer that posts that figure? To me the early pace is more telling such as you mention in SoCal where they are going fast early.

I'm not sure I follow.

To me - late pace figures on dirt - and I've just started fooling around with them - tell just two things.

#1.) did the horse use his speed efficently? If he's running a late pace figure of negative 50 - you know he will improve on his final figure big next time because he was burned out. If he's running a late pace figure of 150 - you know he'll improve his final number next time because he went too slow early on to run as fast as he's capable of running.

#2) did the pace truly collapse - or did the opposite happen? Like I said - the higher the number, the more hopeless things went for closers. The lower the number - the more the speed collapsed.