Jerry Brown on Maclean's Music

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Originally Posted by justindew

By "clear up in hindsight", I assume you are talking about changing a Beyer weeks after it is earned after the horse in question, who was assigned a 97 for his 2nd place effort, races again and earns a 72, then another 72, and the original 97 is changed to a 91.

The scenerio you mentioned probably never happened before in 20 years since they've been published - at least not to that kind of extreme.

IMO - numbers are tweaked in hindsight far, far, far, less often than I think they should be.

[justindew]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

The scenerio you mentioned probably never happened before in 20 years since they've been published - at least not to that kind of extreme.

IMO - numbers are tweaked in hindsight far, far, far, less often than I think they should be.

Are you suggesting that a horse's Beyer has never been adjusted downward by 6 points or more after a subsequent start by him or another horse?

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Originally Posted by justindew

Are you suggesting that a horse's Beyer has never been adjusted downward by 6 points or more after a subsequent start by him or another horse?

If you adjust a horse six points - you have to adjust the rest of the field with him. For instance - The Factor's maiden win was raised from a 102 to 108 a few weeks later. That was before he ever started again.

These type of moves often come on tricky days - and often on days that can probably be explained by wind ... for instance 5f 2yo races at Belmont when a lot of the other sprints on the card are elongated sprints. Or days when only one route race is carded ... and the field consists of a lot of lightly raced horses.

I certainly doubt it ever has become adjusted solely because a beaten horse regressed 25 points over and over. In that example, the horse probably went from Rick Dutrow to Jeff Odintz ... or is off-form because of a nagging physical issue that has surfaced.