New Zealand Racing, 2010-11

[_ed_]

SIERRA NEVADA
3 g High Chaparral - Rata
Breeder: EO Aitken
Owner: JC & MA Thompson
Trainer: Richard & Chris Otto
Jockey: Jim Byrne

Starts: 5
Wins: 2
Seconds: 0
Thirds: 1
Earnings: $15,325

Last start: Avondale Guineas (3rd)
Best performance of the season: Avondale Guineas (3rd)
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=02cKpN-DRgY

Season so far:
5th Maiden
4th Maiden
1st Maiden
1st Rating 70
3rd Avondale Guineas behind Icepin

Pedigree:
High Chaparral - that's about all that needs to be said. And his dam, Rata, won three races over distances up to 2200m. This guy is bred to run all day.

Positives:
- He's getting good at exactly the right time - each start has been better than the one before it
- Very solid pedigree

Negatives:
- He was a maiden on Jan 28 - is this too much, too quickly?

Current odds:
16-1

So can he win?
He can, but I think it's unlikely. He came from absolutely nowhere, improving an enormous amount in a very short period of time. The trainers said they are a bit worried that the Derby might be a bit too soon for him, and I share that concern. He's going to be a very good horse, but I think this will be a learning curve. Having said that, I think he'll run a strong race and go close to finishing in the money.

Predicted finish:
6th




ON THE LEVEL
3 g Align - Springtime Romance
Breeder: Highview Stud
Owner: Sir Patrick Hogan, AJ Sutherland, AC Timpson & PJ Walker
Trainer: Murray & Bjorn Baker
Jockey: Michael Coleman

Starts: 9
Wins: 2
Seconds: 3
Thirds: 0
Earnings: $46,475

Last start: Avondale Guineas (2nd)
Best performance of the season: Maiden (1st)
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FKnTiClTQao

Season so far:
2nd Maiden
1st Maiden
2nd Rating 70
1st Conditions Race
6th Great Northern Guineas
4th Waikato Guineas
2nd Avondale Guineas

Pedigree:
Quite speedy - Align is well known as a sire of sprinters. But On The Level has already performed well in two distance races, so it may not be a concern.

Positives:
- Two very good races in a row against tremendous opposition
- He was doing his best work at the very end of the Avondale Guineas
- Coleman has won the Derby twice, including aboard Xcellent in 2004
- The Bakers are having a great season with the 3yos they train - Lion Tamer, We Can Say It Now...

Negatives:
- His two victories were both in quite low-quality company
- There's not much stamina in his pedigree


Current odds:
18-1

So can he win?
Yes, and quite a few people are picking him as a live longshot chance. But I think that lack of stamina in his pedigree might cause him some trouble. He's also had two gut-busting runs in very tough company. That might start to take its toll as the field turns for home in the Derby.

Predicted finish:
11th




YOUREIN
3 g Reset - It's You
Breeder: DW Flower
Owner: Sir Patrick Hogan, AJ Sutherland, AC Timpson & PJ Walker
Trainer: John Sargent
Jockey: Lisa Allpress

Starts: 8
Wins: 1
Seconds: 0
Thirds: 3
Earnings: $41,400

Last start: Avondale Guineas (13th)
Best performance of the season: Championship Stakes (3rd)
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oV_O_xMVlqA

Season so far:
8th Maiden
3rd Maiden
1st 3yo (listed)
3rd Championship Stakes behind Hidden Asset
6th Karaka Mile behind Banchee
13th Avondale Guineas

Pedigree:
It's hard to say. Reset is a reasonably new sire. It's a bit of a weird pedigree, really. It's difficult to come to any sort of verdict about it. But this horse's owners know a lot about that sort of thing, so they must have liked what they saw when he went through the sale ring.

Positives:
- A listed stakes winner over 2100m at Ellerslie
- Jockey Lisa Allpress is in the best form of her life - currently 2nd on the premiership
- One of three runners in the race for trainer John Sargent

Negatives:
- It looks like he peaked in December/January - his form is going downhill

Current odds:
40-1

So can he win?
I don't think so. The Derby used to be run on Boxing Day, and I think if it was this time, he would have been one of the main chances. He was a good horse in December and January. But his performances have really gone downhill in the last couple of months. It would be a big surprise if he won.

Predicted finish:
16th




JETSET LAD
3 g Elusive City - Jetset Lass
Breeder: Stewarts' Racehorse Syndicate
Owner: CE & CJW Stewart
Trainer: John Wheeler
Jockey: Scott Galloway

Starts: 10
Wins: 3
Seconds: 2
Thirds: 1
Earnings: $43,100

Last start: Avondale Guineas (7th)
Best performance of the season: Wellington Stakes (2nd)
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DR0-ddZDfrI

Season so far:
5th Rating 70
8th Rating 70
9th Wellington Guineas
3rd Rating 70
1st Rating 70
2nd 3yo
1st 3yo
2nd Wellington Stakes
7th Avondale Guineas

Pedigree:
Reasonably solid. Elusive City is a good sire, and his dam, Jetset Lass, wasn't far away when she ran 8th in the NZ Oaks in 2003.

Positives:
- A very good effort behind Jimmy Choux in the Wellington Stakes
- Distance shouldn't be a problem

Negatives:
- Form is inconsistent
- I was looking for a little more in the Avondale Guineas
- Jockey Scott Galloway has never ridden at Ellerslie before - it's a tricky track to ride

Current odds:
26-1

So can he win?
My opinion is that he can't. He's a bit hot-and-cold, and what was by far his best performance of the season came on a track that was much wetter than Ellerslie is likely to be this weekend. And even though he ran well that day, Jimmy was clearly the better horse. I don't think it'll be Jetset Lad's day on Saturday.

Predicted finish:
15th



BETWEEN THE BEATS
3 g Golan - Whistling Jazz
Breeder: CP & KR Russell
Owner: GKV Holdings Ltd, MA Head & M Isaac
Trainer: Jeff Lynds
Jockey: Noel Harris

Starts: 5
Wins: 1
Seconds: 0
Thirds: 1
Earnings: $8,600

Last start: Rating 80 (3rd)
Best performance of the season: Maiden (1st)
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=igAyWOd4EKI

Season so far:
4th 3yo
4th Maiden
9th Wellington Stakes
1st Maiden
3rd Rating 80

Pedigree:
Not bad. Golan has been a successful sire, and has sired a few Derby contenders in the past. The dam, Whistling Jazz, won a race.

Positives:
- Only one really poor performance
- Trained by Jeff Lynds, who is having a great streak - Vosne Romanee, Wall Street and Booming

Negatives:
- That one bad performance was his only start against stakes-quality horses
- This is a really huge step up from Rating 80 grade

Current odds:
60-1

So can he win?
No offense to the horse or any of his connections, but I'm going to predict that this horse will finish in last place. Someone has to come 17th, and Between The Beats has the least impressive credentials in this field.

Predicted finish:
17th

[_ed_]

LAST ONE!

And you might notice I still haven't picked a horse to finish 2nd...



ENCOSTA DIABLO
3 c Encosta De Lago - Devil's Lair
Breeder: Pencarrow Stud
Owner: Te Akau Stud
Trainer: Jason Bridgman
Jockey: Opie Bosson

Starts: 10
Wins: 4
Seconds: 1
Thirds: 0
Earnings: $73,575

Last start: Avondale Guineas (9th)
Best performance of the season: Karaka Mile (fast-finishing 5th)
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RO-CDZOWe1Q

Season so far:
1st 3yo
1st 3yo
4th Ray Coupland Stakes
5th New Zealand 2000 Guineas
5th 3yo
5th Karaka Mile (fast-finishing)
9th Avondale Guineas (unlucky and fast-finishing)

Pedigree:
The best in the field. He's by champion Australian sire Encosta De Lago. His dam is Devil's Lair, which makes him a half-brother to two Oaks winners - Vapour Trail and Santagostino. This pedigree, and his eye-catching conformation, saw him sell for one of the highest prices in the yearling sales of his year.

Positives:
- Sensational breeding
- He hasn't run a bad race this season
- A stakes-winner as a 2yo, so no doubting his ability
- He's desperate for a step up in distance
- Trained by Bridgman and ridden by Bosson - that combo seems to be working well with King's Rose!

Negatives:
- No wins since October

Current odds:
15-1

So can he win?
Yes. He's a beautifully bred and very highly talented galloper, ridden and trained by some of the best in NZ. There's no doubt he'll handle the distance. If it's not Jimmy's day on Saturday, it just might be Encosta's.

Predicted finish:
2nd


All done! That's the whole field. Thanks and congrats if you read all that!

[my miss storm cat]

Originally Posted by _ed_

Predicted finish:
2nd


All done! That's the whole field. Thanks and congrats if you read all that!

Interesting!

Thank you for spending all this time... this is great and I've read through it twice (so far).

Okay just for fun here's mine at this (kinda) early date (although it's realy not so early is it?)...

1. Jimmy
2. Icepin
3. Yin Yang Master
4. Banchee
5. Historian
6. Wisecrack
7. Hidden Asset
8. He's Remarkable
9. Encosta Diablo
10. Raffles Knight
11. Sierra Nevada


Everyone else.

Honestly, I can't wait!

[_ed_]

That looks like a very good list!

Ooh, BIG jockey news:

Chris Munce can't make it over to ride Wisecrack anymore.

Have a look at who they've got to replace him...
http://www.nzracing.co.nz/Meetings/M...8383#raceLink9


He's never ridden in NZ before. Excited that I'm going to see him!

[my miss storm cat]

Oh wow that is awesome!!!!! Very exciting!

* * *

Since you might not have gone to the HK thread, I'll bring the news to you.

LOOK!!!!!

http://racing.scmp.com/freeservice/n...ws20110303.asp