|
|
 |
|
|
|
#1
02-27-2011, 05:54 AM
|
||||
|
||||
 HE'S REMARKABLE 3 c Pentire - Axiom Breeder: Rich Hill Stud Owner: G G Syndicate, J B Struthers & R S Balcoumb Trainer: Roger James Jockey: Matthew Cameron Starts: 7 Wins: 2 Seconds: 1 Thirds: 1 Earnings: $193,500 Last start: Avondale Guineas (10th) Best performance of the season: Rating 70 (1st) http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PetkprE1UZ0 Season so far: 1st Maiden 6th Hawke's Bay Guineas behind Jimmy Choux, Icepin, Maradona, Cellarmaster, We Can Say It Now 1st Rating 70 2nd New Zealand 2000 Guineas behind Jimmy Choux 5th Rating 90 behind Fazzle 3rd Wellington Stakes behind Jimmy Choux, Jetset Lad 10th Avondale Guineas behind Icepin - had some trouble getting a clear run Pedigree: Excellent (excuse the pun). He's by Pentire, who of course sired 2004 Derby winner Xcellent, and is known for stamina - his other good runners include Tinseltown, Pentane, Pentastic, Pentathon, Tin Goose and Zarita. And his dam, Axiom, is a daughter of champion sire Zabeel - one of the most successful stallions in NZ history, and the sire of three NZ Derby winners and also three Melbourne Cup winners. Stamina will not be an issue for He's Remarkable. Positives: - He's probably the second best 3yo we've got this season - Proven in G1 company, with his amazing performance for 2nd in the 2000 Guineas - Trainer Roger James has won the Derby three times - James considers him the best horse he's trained since Zonda, the champion of the late '90s who won the Derby in 1997. I still consider him the second best I've seen after Sunline. Negatives: - Jimmy keeps beating him. Maybe he was just born in the wrong year - Hasn't won a race since October Current odds: 7-1 (second favourite) So can he win? Yes, although his form at the moment worries me. He hasn't really shown his true ability since the 2000 Guineas in November. But while some others have some doubts about the distance, he'll love the step up to 2400m. He should be making a strong run in the last furlong or so of this great race. He should finish in the money. Predicted finish: 3rd (Ooh, who will I pick for 2nd? The suspense!  )
|
|
#2
02-27-2011, 05:12 PM
|
||||
|
||||
|
Quote:
(Agree Jimmy wins it!).  Can't wait for the rest! This is always so much appreciated and it's something I look forward to every year.
|
|
#3
02-27-2011, 07:08 PM
|
||||
|
||||
|
That's good to hear! It's fun to do. Here's another one...
 BANCHEE 3 f Oratorio - Miss Jessie Jay Breeder: Hallmark Stud Owner: Pencarrow Stud Trainer: John Sargent Jockey: James McDonald Starts: 14 Wins: 5 Seconds: 2 Thirds: 1 Earnings: $419,575 Major wins: Karaka Mile Last start: Avondale Guineas (12th) Best performance of the season: Karaka Mile (1st) http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RO-CDZOWe1Q Season so far: 9th Gold Trail Stakes behind Rememba Howe 9th Sarten Memorial behind We Can Say It Now 6th New Zealand 1000 Guineas behind King's Rose 5th Eulogy Stakes behind King's Rose 2nd Eight Carat Classic behind Smoulder 1st Cambridge Stud 3yo, beating Historian and Yin Yang Master 1st Karaka Mile, beating Icepin 12th Avondale Guineas - unlucky in stretch Pedigree: Crazily strong in terms of ability; not so much stamina. She's a half-sister to the amazing Katie Lee. What might help her get more distance is that her sire is Oratorio, whose horses should be able to run further than horses by Katie Lee's sprint sire Pins. Positives: - She has an unbelievable finishing sprint - Already a G1 winner - Has won four times at Ellerslie, including two major races - Jockey James McDonald is the best in NZ and in amazing form - had six wins Saturday Negatives: - Although she was unlucky in her last race, I'm not sure she was really going well enough anyway - Hasn't won beyond a mile Current odds: 9-1 (fourth favourite) So can she win? Yes, but there are some big doubts hanging over her. I'd love to see her do it, and she's one of the best horses in the race for sure. I'm just worried about that last race, and the fact that she's never won over further than a mile. This is a lot further than a mile! Also, it's been 18 years since a filly won the Derby, and only one filly has finished in the money in the last 8 years. Predicted finish: 4th I'm probably going to be hugely wrong with these predictions! Off to work now. I'll do another one when I get home. Last edited by _ed_ : 02-28-2011 at 07:44 AM.
|
|
#4
02-28-2011, 07:59 AM
|
||||
|
||||
 ICEPIN 3 g Pins - Ice Maiden Breeder: Waikato Stud Owner: Herbie Dyke Trainer: Jason Bridgman Jockey: Sam Spratt Starts: 14 Wins: 4 Seconds: 4 Thirds: 1 Earnings: $356,615 Major wins: Avondale Guineas (G2) Last start: Avondale Guineas (1st) Best performance of the season: Avondale Guineas (1st) http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=02cKpN-DRgY Season so far: 2nd Hawke's Bay Guineas behind Jimmy Choux 3rd Canterbury Stakes behind Undisclosed 10th New Zealand 2000 Guineas behind Jimmy Choux 1st Rating 80, beating I'm A King and Riotous 2nd Great Northern Guineas to Jimmy Choux 2nd Karaka Mile to Banchee 1st Avondale Guineas, beating almost every Derby contender except Jimmy Choux Pedigree: Very sprint-heavy. Pins is a highly successful sire, but most of his horses excel over sprint distances. Ice Maiden was a good mare, but she never won over more than 1200m either. Judging simply from his breeding, it's ridiculous that he won the Avondale Guineas over 2100m. But he has a love of racing and determination that has nothing to do with the pedigree page. Positives: - Never runs a bad race - Two wins at Ellerslie, including the Avondale Guineas, and two more stakes placings there - The field he beat in the Avondale Guineas was very similar to the likely Derby field - Trained by NZ's leading trainer, Jason Bridgman, and ridden by outstanding jockey Sam Spratt (of Mufhasa fame) Negatives: - Jimmy keeps beating him, and he has no excuses - he just gets beaten by a better horse - Excessively sprint-oriented breeding Current odds: 8-1 (third favourite) So can he win? It'd be great if he did, but I don't think he can. Jimmy Choux has beaten him fair and square so many times now that it's just hard to see him turning that around. But no one expected him to win the Avondale Guineas, and he did, so rule him out completely at your own peril. It's impossible not to love him, and it would be awesome to see him do well. He's definitely a place chance. Predicted finish: 5th
|
|
#5
02-28-2011, 04:36 PM
|
||||
|
||||
|
I"m really starting to love Icepin and decided I'm going to predict right along with you.
So far I have Jimmy winning as well and this one 2nd. I don't want to interrupt the fantastic job you're doing (and God you will never know how much I appreciate this!) but where's my slow boy Upsala? Has he raced since that day when (I think ) he didn't like the wet track? Thanks! Oh yeah and whatever that Mufhasa didn't win! Tough field... even for a HOY and finishing where he did was pretty damned good, you're right!
|
|
#6
02-28-2011, 05:03 PM
|
||||
|
||||
|
And Mufhasa had a bad flight over the day before - stuck in a box for 13 hours! It's usually about five or six hours. Poor guy. Might have affected his performance.
I can tell you that Upsala ran second in a trial on the 24th. He was in heat 19: http://www.nzracing.co.nz/Meetings/T...lts.aspx/38946 I see he beat a G1 winner (Miss Raggedy Ann)! I haven't heard what the plans are for Upsala, but I'll post them here if I do.
|
|
#7
02-28-2011, 05:10 PM
|
||||
|
||||
|
That's awesome!
Thanks for the news and wow poor Mufhasa. That sucks!
|
|
#8
03-01-2011, 02:14 PM
|
||||
|
||||
|
Quote:
Is Yin Yang Master going to the Derby? Historian? Not trying to rush you hahahaha it's like a good book (your Derby horse profiles) where you never want it to end but still, wondering... (!). Oh and you were right, I hadn't heard of either of the two.
|
|
#9
03-01-2011, 06:40 PM
|
||||
|
||||
|
That's right - her name's Samantha, but she prefers Sam.
Here's the full Derby field: 10111 Jimmy Choux 7 94 56.0 Jonathan Riddell John Bary, Hastings 12530 He's Remarkable 14 82 56.0 Matthew Cameron Roger James, Cambridge 01221 Icepin 5 88 56.0 Sam Spratt Jason Bridgman, Matamata 31160 Hidden Asset 8 73 56.0 Shaune Ritchie, Cambridge 21642 On The Level 12 80 56.0 Michael Coleman Murray & Bjorn Baker, Cambridge 31360 Yourein 13 70 56.0 Lisa Allpress John Sargent, Matamata 45559 Encosta Diablo 3 75 56.0 Opie Bosson Jason Bridgman, Matamata 12126 Jetset Lad 17 84 56.0 Scott Galloway John Wheeler, New Plymouth 23212 Nippin 11 76 56.0 Allan Sharrock, New Plymouth 23328 Yin Yang Master 10 76 56.0 Mark Du Plessis John Sargent, Matamata 52115 O'Reilly's Prize 1 78 56.0 Hayden Tinsley David Haworth & Matt Dixon, Foxton 11234 Historian 4 77 56.0 Chad Ormsby Tony Pike & Mark Donoghue, Cambridge 11446 Raffles Knight 2 74 56.0 Stephen McKee, Ardmore 54113 Sierra Nevada 16 77 56.0 Richard & Chris Otto, Te Awamutu 171 Wisecrack 15 74 56.0 Ken & Bev Kelso, Matamata 44913 Between The Beats 9 70 56.0 Jeff Lynds, Awapuni 52110 Banchee 6 86 54.5 James McDonald (a) John Sargent, Matamata So the answers are yes and yes!
|
|
#10
03-01-2011, 10:06 PM
|
||||
|
||||
|
Thank you cause I stupidly assumed she was a he but just to be clear I meant the other one... Danielle Johnson (I had to look up her name. Duh.).
Which is his regular rider or does he not really have one?
|
|
#11
03-01-2011, 10:48 PM
|
||||
|
||||
 HIDDEN ASSET 3 g High Chaparral - Fragile Asset Breeder: BE & RW Punch Owner: BR Broomhead, GG Syndicate, Parsons Bloodstock, KL Syminton and Twelve Cheers Syndicate Trainer: Shaune Ritchie Jockey: Vinnie Colgan Starts: 5 Wins: 2 Seconds: 0 Thirds: 1 Earnings: $66,400 Major wins: Championship Stakes (G2) Last start: Avondale Guineas (14th) Best performance of the season: Championship Stakes (1st) http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oV_O_xMVlqA Season so far: 3rd Maiden 1st Maiden 1st Championship Stakes, beating Hot Pursuit and Yourein 6th Waikato Guineas behind Jimmy Choux 14th Avondale Guineas behind Icepin Pedigree: Very strong. He's another High Chaparral, and his dam is a Zabeel mare. He should love the 2400m of the Derby. Positives: - Showed loads of ability when he won a G2 race over 2100m at Ellerslie on Jan 1 - Ritchie trained Military Move to win the Derby last year - Colgan has ridden four Derby winners Negatives: - His last two races have been the two worst performances of his career, and no one can explain why. Current odds: 19-1 So can he win? If you had asked me this in January, I would have said yes. He's been as high as my second pick for the Derby in the past. But his last performance was just terrible. If he miraculously returns to his best, he could win this. But I don't see him turning it around that quickly. Predicted finish: 10th  NIPPIN 3 c Pins - Wait A Minute Breeder: Waikato Stud Owner: EM Bourke, NA Bourke, AR Piercy, MI Eliason, JP Fleming and JA Washer Trainer: Allan Sharrock Jockey: Shane Scriven Starts: 7 Wins: 2 Seconds: 3 Thirds: 1 Earnings: $36,125 Last start: Rating 90 Best performance of the season: Conditions Race (1st) http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=P8Yw_E1vT1M Season so far: 6th Maiden 1st Maiden 2nd 3yo 3rd 3yo 2nd Rating 70 1st Conditions Race 2nd Rating 90 Pedigree: A little bit questionable - Pins is a speed sire. But the dam is by a good stamina sire in Centaine, and she won over 2100m herself. Positives: - Rated very highly by his trainer, who has already won a Derby with Wahid in 2006. - Since his below-par debut, he hasn't run a bad race. Negatives: - Hasn't faced stakes-class horses yet - He probably should have beaten that Rating 90 field in his last start, so he's coming into the race off a slightly disappointing effort. Current odds: 25-1 So can he win? His trainer seems to think so, so you can't completely rule it out. But I'm a bit worried about the fact that he hasn't faced good-class opposition yet. The Derby is going to be a big step up for this colt. He'll need to find five or six lengths on his last performance. Predicted finish: 14th  HISTORIAN 3 g Choisir - Cyclonic Breeder: Bledisloe Bloodstock Owner: Ngai Chun-Hung Trainer: Tony Pike & Mark Donoghue Jockey: Chad Ormsby Starts: 6 Wins: 2 Seconds: 2 Thirds: 1 Earnings: $32,125 Last start: Avondale Guineas (4th) Best performance of the season: Maiden (1st) http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LNbJA_nRqZI Season so far: 2nd Maiden 1st Maiden 1st Rating 70 2nd 3yo - a nose behind Banchee 3rd Waikato Guineas behind Jimmy Choux 4th Avondale Guineas behind Icepin Pedigree: He's by the great Australian sprinter Choisir, so there are some concerns here. The dam, Cyclonic, also has a speedy pedigree, and her only win was 1300m - that's a long way short of 2400m. I hear alarm bells. Positives: - This is a really, really talented horse - He's never run a bad race, and has faced some of the very best 3yos in NZ - Banchee, Jimmy Choux and Icepin won his last three races Negatives: - The distance is going to be a huge test for this guy, I think Current odds: 17-1 So can he win? If he gets the distance, yes, he could win this race. He has proven himself to be not far behind the likes of Jimmy Choux, Banchee and Icepin. But I'm really worried about the 2400m for Historian. His pedigree suggests that even trying it is lunacy. He's done 2000m and 2100m in his last two starts and performed well, but this is another step up. I think it's just too far for him. But he'll be a good horse over shorter distances next year. Predicted finish: 12th
|
|
#14
03-04-2011, 03:22 PM
|
||||
|
||||
|
Oh crap I hope so too.
|
|
#15
03-05-2011, 03:47 AM
|
||||
|
||||
|
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RJpZVWTG3Lg
By the way, Banchee was scratched because the track was so wet.
|
|
#16
03-05-2011, 12:02 PM
|
||||
|
||||
|
Hahahaha yea!!!
Jimmy!!! Oh my God you scared the hell out of me cause I purposely didn't look at any news... I wanted to hear it from you and by your post I thought oh no... Jimmy couldn't do it and wonder who beat him.  Fantastic!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!  So exciting and so happy and yea for Historian cause what a nice run and very very impressed with On the Level! Yea!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! 
|
 |
| Thread Tools | |
| Display Modes | |
|
|
Hybrid Mode
