2/26 (GP): Fountain of Youth, Hutcheson, Davona Dale (G2's)

[miraja2]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

horses that are going to the Derby off two preps are likely a lot more cranked up than people seem to want to believe.

Do you think it there might be a difference when it is a horse like this who doesn't need the graded earnings to get in?

On the one hand I'm always a bit hesitant to write off a disappointing performance on the grounds that the trainer didn't have the horse "cranked," because I'm somewhat skeptical of trainers ability to control when a horse is "cranked." On the other hand, with horses on the Derby Trail, where there is one definite goal race, I suppose it is possible that connections hold something back with a horse like this whose position in the field is already assured if he's healthy.

[randallscott35]

If Drosselmeyer can win a classic then there is hope for To Honor.

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by miraja2

Do you think it there might be a difference when it is a horse like this who doesn't need the graded earnings to get in?

On the one hand I'm always a bit hesitant to write off a disappointing performance on the grounds that the trainer didn't have the horse "cranked," because I'm somewhat skeptical of trainers ability to control when a horse is "cranked." On the other hand, with horses on the Derby Trail, where there is one definite goal race, I suppose it is possible that connections hold something back with a horse like this whose position in the field is already assured if he's healthy.

You are sort of suggesting it is some exact science where a horse has a certain amount to give and his trainer can sort of dole it out at will. That is not the case.

I guess what it really hinges on is Uncle Mo. If he keeps it together, the others are in trouble, but if he doesn't, it's wide open. But, it's hard to be overly encouraged by To Honor and Serve today, especially given the questions his 2YO races offered. He didn't give the right answer today. But, I suppose it's early. I just don't want him going forward. But, I also hated Soldat today.

[miraja2]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

You are sort of suggesting it is some exact science where a horse has a certain amount to give and his trainer can sort of dole it out at will. That is not the case.

I didn't mean to suggest that exactly, which is why I said in my post:
"I'm somewhat skeptical of trainers ability to control when a horse is "cranked.""

I just sometimes wonder if, when it comes to horses on the "derby trail" with the necessary graded stakes earnings in hand, trainers do try....whatever is they try....to get their horses to "peak" on Derby day. I do remain skeptical about how successful they would be at doing this, but it at least seems more probable to me with a horse in To Honor and Serve's position than is typically the case when people use the "it was just a prep race" excuse.

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Originally Posted by VOL JACK

My opinion on this is that your Facebook avatar is much better than the Brett Favre one.

I suppose.

By the way - had To Honor And Serve won the race - Jerry Brown might be calling him the fastest 3yo ever... or at least fastest pre-Derby 3yo.

The horse who won the ALW that went 20 Beyer points slower ran a 1 last out. Soldat ran a Negative 1.50 last out - once you factor in the weight and ground loss on there scale - I think it's a pretty safe bet To Honor And Serve ran a new lifetime top today. Had he won today - I can't even imagine how strong the hype would be from those guys.