2/26 (GP): Fountain of Youth, Hutcheson, Davona Dale (G2's)

[ateamstupid]

Originally Posted by Betsy

I have no idea what your problem is except extreme arrogance, but go ahead and say that the horse ran a good race. I eagerly anticipate your analysis - or was your comment about War Front as much as we can expect from you. You sure have a hard time being civil.

Yeah, I'm the one with the problem. The horse ran third off a four-month layoff and you're taking him off the Derby trail, no questions asked. All you ever used to do is complain about how every horse's spot is too ambitious, now you've switched to putting the second favorite for the Derby on the shelf because of a so-so comeback race behind a quality horse who walked on the lead. Your insanely overprotective attitude towards all A.P. Indy sons and grandsons is beyond tired.

Look at the rest of the comments. I'm not the only one who thinks you're being typically ridiculous.

[Scav]

Originally Posted by ateamstupid

Yeah, I'm the one with the problem. The horse ran third off a four-month layoff and you're taking him off the Derby trail, no questions asked. All you ever used to do is complain about how every horse's spot is too ambitious, now you've switched to putting the second favorite for the Derby on the shelf because of a so-so comeback race behind a quality horse who walked on the lead. Your insanely overprotective attitude towards all A.P. Indy sons and grandsons is beyond tired.

Look at the rest of the comments. I'm not the only one who thinks you're being typically ridiculous.

Why so nice.

[Betsy]

Originally Posted by Scav

Why so nice.

If you think he's being too nice, instead of being gutless, why don't you come at me with guns blazing? I can handle it, believe me. Go ahead - say what you really feel.

[slotdirt]

So...Gourmet Dinner isn't horrible. That is all.

[Kasept]

Originally Posted by slotdirt

So...Gourmet Dinner isn't horrible. That is all.

2011 model of Jackson Bend. Very game and hard-trying.

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Originally Posted by slotdirt

So...Gourmet Dinner isn't horrible. That is all.

I still think his best game would be a fast paced 7f race. I wasn't watching him close - but he seemed to have a perfect position and looked ultra menacing on the far turn only to hang in the stretch. I would have made a strong bet on him today had he run in the Hutcheson instead.

I liked To Honor And Serve's race. He was wide on both turns and had every right to be flat off of the layoff. It was the kind of performance that gets people to overreact. Funny Cide was like a fading 5th with a similar wide trip in his 3yo debut -- he was a very fast 2yo and after that race - I think he was an incredible high price in Derby futures.

Soldat had every advantage in the world going for him coming into this race - he had a great draw, you knew he would send, and speed typically dominates these Derby prep races - especially at 9fs. Soldat's going to be another in a long line of speed horses who brings strong form into the Ky Derby only to see himself get cooked by sprinter/miler speed.

[freddymo]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

I still think his best game would be a fast paced 7f race. I wasn't watching him close - but he seemed to have a perfect position and looked ultra menacing on the far turn only to hang in the stretch. I would have made a strong bet on him today had he run in the Hutcheson instead.

I liked To Honor And Serve's race. He was wide on both turns and had every right to be flat off of the layoff. It was the kind of performance that gets people to overreact. Funny Cide was like a fading 5th with a similar wide trip in his 3yo debut -- he was a very fast 2yo and after that race - I think he was an incredible high price in Derby futures.

Soldat had every advantage in the world going for him coming into this race - he had a great draw, you knew he would send, and speed typically dominates these Derby prep races - especially at 9fs. Soldat's going to be another in a long line of speed horses who brings strong form into the Ky Derby only to see himself get cooked by sprinter/miler speed.

What is the Hutch fig going to be 106/7

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Originally Posted by freddymo

What is the Hutch fig going to be 106/7

It's hard to say - at a glance. I'm playing a few night tracks now and this figure isn't going to be an easy one imo.

The race went a little less than 2 full seconds faster than some lightly raced bums in the first race at the same distance. The 7f and 8f races there require seperate variants.

[Sightseek]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

It's hard to say - at a glance. I'm playing a few night tracks now and this figure isn't going to be an easy one imo.

The race went a little less than 2 full seconds faster than some lightly raced bums in the first race at the same distance. The 7f and 8f races there require seperate variants.

Anything good at Charles Town?

[Kasept]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

I still think his best game would be a fast paced 7f race. I wasn't watching him close - but he seemed to have a perfect position and looked ultra menacing on the far turn only to hang in the stretch. I would have made a strong bet on him today had he run in the Hutcheson instead.

There ya go... Same approach that would have benefitted Jackson Bend.

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

I liked To Honor And Serve's race. He was wide on both turns and had every right to be flat off of the layoff. It was the kind of performance that gets people to overreact. Funny Cide was like a fading 5th with a similar wide trip in his 3yo debut -- he was a very fast 2yo and after that race - I think he was an incredible high price in Derby futures.

And Funny Cide was in the 13 hole that day in the Holy Bull. Hit the gate too. 73-1 (or maybe 93-1) in the first round of KDFW. Agree Honor/Serve gets value of multiple works out of this.

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

Soldat had every advantage in the world going for him coming into this race - he had a great draw, you knew he would send, and speed typically dominates these Derby prep races - especially at 9fs. Soldat's going to be another in a long line of speed horses who brings strong form into the Ky Derby only to see himself get cooked by sprinter/miler speed.

A reminder of the last several FOY winners...

Eskendereya
Quality Road
Cool Coal Man
Scat Daddy
Corinthian-DQ (First Sam)
High Fly
Read the Footnotes
Trust N Luck
Booklet
Songandaprayer

[herkhorse]

Am I the only one who wants to puke every time someone writes "THAS"?

[ateamstupid]

Originally Posted by herkhorse

Am I the only one who wants to puke every time someone writes "THAS"?

THaS crazyyyyy man

[Sightseek]

Originally Posted by herkhorse

Am I the only one who wants to puke every time someone writes "THAS"?

Now that you mentioned it, no you're not!!

[Kasept]

From Mrs. Weber regarding Honor/Serve: "Pulled up fine. We survive to fight the next battle."

[blackthroatedwind]

Thinking this was anything other than a very disappointing effort by To Honor and Serve feels like seeing what you want to see as opposed to what you really saw. For the first time he hasn't had an absolutely perfect trip, and he didn't exactly set the world on fire, and his trip was far from bad. How good is Gourmet Dinner....and he buried him. Yes, he had a better trip, but To Honor and Serve is supposed to be a superior horse to him....and it wasn't close today.

Sorry, but it seems to me that horses that are going to the Derby off two preps are likely a lot more cranked up than people seem to want to believe. To Honor and Serve packed it in after seven furlongs today. After today I am inclined to go to the " horse he was dressed up by two straight dream trips " side of the fence.

[miraja2]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

horses that are going to the Derby off two preps are likely a lot more cranked up than people seem to want to believe.

Do you think it there might be a difference when it is a horse like this who doesn't need the graded earnings to get in?

On the one hand I'm always a bit hesitant to write off a disappointing performance on the grounds that the trainer didn't have the horse "cranked," because I'm somewhat skeptical of trainers ability to control when a horse is "cranked." On the other hand, with horses on the Derby Trail, where there is one definite goal race, I suppose it is possible that connections hold something back with a horse like this whose position in the field is already assured if he's healthy.

[randallscott35]

If Drosselmeyer can win a classic then there is hope for To Honor.

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by miraja2

Do you think it there might be a difference when it is a horse like this who doesn't need the graded earnings to get in?

On the one hand I'm always a bit hesitant to write off a disappointing performance on the grounds that the trainer didn't have the horse "cranked," because I'm somewhat skeptical of trainers ability to control when a horse is "cranked." On the other hand, with horses on the Derby Trail, where there is one definite goal race, I suppose it is possible that connections hold something back with a horse like this whose position in the field is already assured if he's healthy.

You are sort of suggesting it is some exact science where a horse has a certain amount to give and his trainer can sort of dole it out at will. That is not the case.

I guess what it really hinges on is Uncle Mo. If he keeps it together, the others are in trouble, but if he doesn't, it's wide open. But, it's hard to be overly encouraged by To Honor and Serve today, especially given the questions his 2YO races offered. He didn't give the right answer today. But, I suppose it's early. I just don't want him going forward. But, I also hated Soldat today.

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Even if To Honor And Serve was fully cranked and had preps in him for this - The other speeds were herding there way out going into the first turn - and he got caught miserably wide around that first turn on what was a solid early pace being set by a very sharp horse.

When he was struggling to go with a perfectly positioned Soldat - and a good closing sprinter like Gourmet Dinner was positioned so perfectly and about to come by him on the turn- it's when horses can just hit the reset button and plain quit...even fit ones going 9fs off a layoff.

To me - that was the exact race I wanted to see if I was going to like anything about To Honor And Serve going forward.

If Soldat wasn't involved in that race - To Honor And Serve gets to control the pace rating just off that silly Maker longshot ... Dominguez's hand is forced to move early on Gourmet Dinner - he is sent along to confront a fresh To Honor And Serve on the turn - and he gets shrugged off in the stretch. To Honor And Serve wins the race and does it by putting late margins on the field...and his reputation grows.

[Betsy]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

Even if To Honor And Serve was fully cranked and had preps in him for this - The other speeds were herding there way out going into the first turn - and he got caught miserably wide around that first turn on what was a solid early pace being set by a very sharp horse.

When he was struggling to go with a perfectly positioned Soldat - and a good closing sprinter like Gourmet Dinner was positioned so perfectly and about to come by him on the turn- it's when horses can just hit the reset button and plain quit...even fit ones going 9fs off a layoff.

To me - that was the exact race I wanted to see if I was going to like anything about To Honor And Serve going forward.

If Soldat wasn't involved in that race - To Honor And Serve gets to control the pace rating just off that silly Maker longshot ... Dominguez's hand is forced to move early on Gourmet Dinner - he is sent along to confront a fresh To Honor And Serve on the turn - and he gets shrugged off in the stretch. To Honor And Serve wins the race and does it by putting late margins on the field...and his reputation grows.

I agree with Andy, of course What I saw in this race is that I don't think the horse can rate comfortably. I doubt he'll make a habit of being fractious in the gate, but if Mott was trying to get him to rate, it didn't work. I'm not sure how far he even wants to go. I was guilty, I think, of being seduced by how he rated against the bad field of maidens he buried.

Also, Soldat was there - and so if it's not him involved, invariably there will be another quality speed that he faces. I think back to his debut when he broke badly from the rail and rushed up to lead for most of the rest of the race. Perhaps that says that he's really a speedball miler type?