The 3-year-old males

[Betsy]

Originally Posted by Danzig

who said anything about replacing? lol you put too much stock in derby lists and rankings. especially at this point in the year. i'm talking about the coverage of these horses in general.

as for mott, he only plans on two starts because he's got the money. i don't buy that it's best for the horse. best for the horse to have a minimum two losses i guess.
i don't think it's best for the sport either. but it seems all the top trainers with the best of the best stock are stuck in this mindset. has nothing to do with training, ability, etc. has to do with protecting the supposed monetary value of a horse, and not wanting to risk a loss.
makes me wonder why it's still called horse 'racing'. i think it stinks, which is no slur on bill mott-but a huge indictment of this sport, which is slowly committing suicide.

I think it's more like trainers are afraid of being past their peak by the time the Derby comes around - I can't blame them for that. I agree in general that horses need to race more, but I don't have a problem with 2 preps for the Derby. There's more to racing than the Derby or the Triple Crown. In terms of THAS, he's clearly going to run as a 4 year old so he won't be retiring anytime soon due to anything other than illness or injury. How would you prefer his schedule to have gone? Run in the Holy Bull, FOY and then FLA Derby?

[RockHardTen1985]

Originally Posted by Betsy

I think it's more like trainers are afraid of being past their peak by the time the Derby comes around - I can't blame them for that. I agree in general that horses need to race more, but I don't have a problem with 2 preps for the Derby. There's more to racing than the Derby or the Triple Crown. In terms of THAS, he's clearly going to run as a 4 year old so he won't be retiring anytime soon due to anything other than illness or injury. How would you prefer his schedule to have gone? Run in the Holy Bull, FOY and then FLA Derby?

I agree with you as far as THAS. He already has rolled going 9f, and as a 2yr old he has been more then fast enough. Its Motts job to keep him moving forward, and have him ready. Its different with all horses, but a fast horse who already has won going 9f, I have no problem with 2 preps. I got him as the horse to beat, and I cant wait for him to run back.

[Betsy]

Originally Posted by RockHardTen1985

I agree with you as far as THAS. He already has rolled going 9f, and as a 2yr old he has been more then fast enough. Its Motts job to keep him moving forward, and have him ready. Its different with all horses, but a fast horse who already has won going 9f, I have no problem with 2 preps. I got him as the horse to beat, and I cant wait for him to run back.

Yep, there isn't just one way of doing things; what works for one horse won't work for another. I'm sure Mott badly wants to win a Derby, but if he doesn't think running THAS (for instance) more than 2x before hitting KY is the right thing, then I have to believe he's right. I don't think that this horse will lose the Derby because he's not fit enough.

[King Glorious]

Originally Posted by Betsy

Yep, there isn't just one way of doing things; what works for one horse won't work for another. I'm sure Mott badly wants to win a Derby, but if he doesn't think running THAS (for instance) more than 2x before hitting KY is the right thing, then I have to believe he's right. I don't think that this horse will lose the Derby because he's not fit enough.

My feeling on it is that he won't be fit enough. In years past, he would have been at a big disadvantage conditioning wise. He could be the most talented, like Arazi was, but the margin for error is so small that any advantage you give to the others could be enough to cause a loss. However, he's lucky enough to have come along in this new era of less is more. When all of his main competition will be coming in with the same two, at most three starts, he's then not at a disadvantage anymore. For the most part, it's going to be a competition between a bunch of unfit and undertrained horses bred for 8f and the one that lasts the longest and gets the best trip will win.

[Betsy]

Originally Posted by King Glorious

My feeling on it is that he won't be fit enough. In years past, he would have been at a big disadvantage conditioning wise. He could be the most talented, like Arazi was, but the margin for error is so small that any advantage you give to the others could be enough to cause a loss. However, he's lucky enough to have come along in this new era of less is more. When all of his main competition will be coming in with the same two, at most three starts, he's then not at a disadvantage anymore. For the most part, it's going to be a competition between a bunch of unfit and undertrained horses bred for 8f and the one that lasts the longest and gets the best trip will win.

If all the trainers feel that 2 starts is enough, then maybe it is.........times change. Don't you think that 3 starts is pushing it ? Didn't Northern Dancer's trainer (for some reason, I'm totally blanking, but I know him) say "never squeeze the lemon dry"?

[King Glorious]

Originally Posted by Betsy

If all the trainers feel that 2 starts is enough, then maybe it is.........times change. Don't you think that 3 starts is pushing it ? Didn't Northern Dancer's trainer (for some reason, I'm totally blanking, but I know him) say "never squeeze the lemon dry"?

No, I absolutely don't feel that two starts is enough. I think they should run 6-8 times as 2yos and the Derby should be a fourth start MINIMUM as a 3yo. Times may change but basic principles of conditioning and muscle training remain the same. You have to get your body ready if you are going to ask it to do something. Horses are athletes too and once you reach your peak, you stay in it with activity not inactivity. I think that's why you see a lot of Derby winners come back with really strong Preakness performances in only two weeks, which seems to fly in the face of modern thinking that you need 6-8 weeks to recover from a huge effort. I think that racing is a lot like other sports in that it's a copy-cat game. It worked for one so now everyone wants to do it and then, as I said earlier, they all end up in the same underconditioned boat and then it's no longer a disadvantage to any of them. I bet if a horse ran five preps this year and then won the Derby, next year, you'd see more with three or four as the pendelum would start to swing back again.

[Betsy]

Originally Posted by King Glorious

No, I absolutely don't feel that two starts is enough. I think they should run 6-8 times as 2yos and the Derby should be a fourth start MINIMUM as a 3yo. Times may change but basic principles of conditioning and muscle training remain the same. You have to get your body ready if you are going to ask it to do something. Horses are athletes too and once you reach your peak, you stay in it with activity not inactivity. I think that's why you see a lot of Derby winners come back with really strong Preakness performances in only two weeks, which seems to fly in the face of modern thinking that you need 6-8 weeks to recover from a huge effort. I think that racing is a lot like other sports in that it's a copy-cat game. It worked for one so now everyone wants to do it and then, as I said earlier, they all end up in the same underconditioned boat and then it's no longer a disadvantage to any of them. I bet if a horse ran five preps this year and then won the Derby, next year, you'd see more with three or four as the pendelum would start to swing back again.

That's a good point about the Preakness - can't argue with you there. Well, neither of the consensus top two (top 3 ) horses - Mo, THAS and BOYS ran that much, but then the first two didn't even debut until Saratoga. I can't say that 6-8 starts as a baby is right when for me a lot depends on pedigree. Racing and other sports definitely tend towards copy-catting - not necessarily a good thing as I still see horses as individuals and what works for one won't necessarily work for another. I guess if I think about it, 2 starts to go a grueling 1 1/14 (with all the banging around that goes on) doesn't really toughen a horse. I'm sort of torn on this.

[King Glorious]

I've always said that if you don't go into the Derby with the intention of winning it, you shouldn't go at all. If you do go planning on winning it, the next step is obviously the Preakness. The point is, if you aren't preparing your horse for the entire series, you are asking for trouble. How can you expect a horse that's conditioned to run once every 6-8 weeks to be ready to run three times in six weeks? You can't.

As for the hype of the horses, I think it's really a case of people are looking for hope where maybe it's not really there. But this is what the sport has left us with. Horses don't run enough anymore for us to properly evaluate actual talent and ability against other top horses so all we can do is watch a good horse beat mediocres and pin our hopes on them as future stars. I think back to my first year as a fan, 1986. We had Java Gold, Polish Navy, Gulch, Capote, Bet Twice, Talinum, Temperate Sil, Demons Begone, Qualify, Alysheba...the list goes on.....and they were competing against each other regularly as 2yos and on the TC trail as 3yos. We KNEW who the top horses were. Yearly, that was the case. It wasn't like now where it's mostly speculating and guessing.

[Betsy]

Originally Posted by King Glorious

I've always said that if you don't go into the Derby with the intention of winning it, you shouldn't go at all. If you do go planning on winning it, the next step is obviously the Preakness. The point is, if you aren't preparing your horse for the entire series, you are asking for trouble. How can you expect a horse that's conditioned to run once every 6-8 weeks to be ready to run three times in six weeks? You can't.

As for the hype of the horses, I think it's really a case of people are looking for hope where maybe it's not really there. But this is what the sport has left us with. Horses don't run enough anymore for us to properly evaluate actual talent and ability against other top horses so all we can do is watch a good horse beat mediocres and pin our hopes on them as future stars. I think back to my first year as a fan, 1986. We had Java Gold, Polish Navy, Gulch, Capote, Bet Twice, Talinum, Temperate Sil, Demons Begone, Qualify, Alysheba...the list goes on.....and they were competing against each other regularly as 2yos and on the TC trail as 3yos. We KNEW who the top horses were. Yearly, that was the case. It wasn't like now where it's mostly speculating and guessing.

I understand hope and I don't mean to imply that the horses we've seen recently are not talented or are not capable of being among the best in their crop.......We'll see them run against their more proven counterparts soon enough. The fact is, though, after the TC, you're right they don't run enough anymore - against each other especially. 1986- what a fantastic crop of horses. Gulch was the first horse I followed from beginning to end and I was lucky, I think - he was a pretty special horse

[King Glorious]

Originally Posted by Betsy

I understand hope and I don't mean to imply that the horses we've seen recently are not talented or are not capable of being among the best in their crop.......We'll see them run against their more proven counterparts soon enough. The fact is, though, after the TC, you're right they don't run enough anymore - against each other especially. 1986- what a fantastic crop of horses. Gulch was the first horse I followed from beginning to end and I was lucky, I think - he was a pretty special horse

I'm more in agreement with you in that I think a horse like Uncle Mo or Boys at Tosconova deserve to stay near the top of the rankings until proven otherwise. Yes, they are out of sight and that opens the door for others to move in but the others haven't done more than the leaders have. I believe that a champ is a champ until beaten. Right now, the Spurs are running away with the best record in the NBA but until they beat the Lakers in the playoffs or someone else does, LA is still the champ.

[Betsy]

Originally Posted by King Glorious

I'm more in agreement with you in that I think a horse like Uncle Mo or Boys at Tosconova deserve to stay near the top of the rankings until proven otherwise. Yes, they are out of sight and that opens the door for others to move in but the others haven't done more than the leaders have. I believe that a champ is a champ until beaten. Right now, the Spurs are running away with the best record in the NBA but until they beat the Lakers in the playoffs or someone else does, LA is still the champ.

That's right - I just don't think they've done anything wrong to be knocked off their perch, esp. by maiden winners. For all we know, Uncle Mo ,THAS, Boys, etc... will be even better at 3 than they were last year. I wouldn't even put Dialed In above them until I see the others come back ..........and they don't have to win, either.

[Pedigree Ann]

Originally Posted by King Glorious

I've always said that if you don't go into the Derby with the intention of winning it, you shouldn't go at all. If you do go planning on winning it, the next step is obviously the Preakness. The point is, if you aren't preparing your horse for the entire series, you are asking for trouble. How can you expect a horse that's conditioned to run once every 6-8 weeks to be ready to run three times in six weeks? You can't.

As for the hype of the horses, I think it's really a case of people are looking for hope where maybe it's not really there. But this is what the sport has left us with. Horses don't run enough anymore for us to properly evaluate actual talent and ability against other top horses so all we can do is watch a good horse beat mediocres and pin our hopes on them as future stars. I think back to my first year as a fan, 1986. We had Java Gold, Polish Navy, Gulch, Capote, Bet Twice, Talinum, Temperate Sil, Demons Begone, Qualify, Alysheba...the list goes on.....and they were competing against each other regularly as 2yos and on the TC trail as 3yos. We KNEW who the top horses were. Yearly, that was the case. It wasn't like now where it's mostly speculating and guessing.

I couldn't agree more with you. This 'resting' horses after even easy races just gives their bones and muscles time to lose the remodeling that the race gave them. And it seems to have been instituted by the 'sheets guys' analyses. Don't run him back too soon or he'll bounce! They have no training in exercise physiology or anything similar, and they haven't trained a racehorse in the flesh, yet everybody listens to them anyway. Madness. I am a mathematician, holding a doctorate in mathematical statistics, and I can tell you that a complex situation like a racehorse's performance in a race can't be described by a single number.

My first 'Derby' season was 1971 and I had latched onto Jim French, the hickory throwback to an earlier era who seemed to run every 10 days or so. He took part in all 4 parts of the Hialeah Derby series (won the Bahamas but had to give it back) with a couple of placings, then ran in the Bay Shore, Florida Derby, and Santa Anita Derby on consecutive weekends, placing in the first two and winning the last. And since it was then 4 weeks to the Derby, he ran in the Wood Memorial (4th). If that critter Canonero II hadn't shipped in from Venezuela, Jim French would have been the Derby winner, because he was a clear second on the day. None of the US-raced 3yos that year were all that much - except Hoist the Flag, who got hurt early - but they ran against one another all spring. Bold Reason, Executioner, Good Behaving, His Majesty - all nice horses who won good races in their lifetimes, but nothing even Riva Ridge-style special. Nobody was worried about their stud value being diminished by a loss because it wasn't until they had run 8-10 times that any of them HAD any value as a stallion.

[freddymo]

Originally Posted by Pedigree Ann

I couldn't agree more with you. This 'resting' horses after even easy races just gives their bones and muscles time to lose the remodeling that the race gave them. And it seems to have been instituted by the 'sheets guys' analyses. Don't run him back too soon or he'll bounce! They have no training in exercise physiology or anything similar, and they haven't trained a racehorse in the flesh, yet everybody listens to them anyway. Madness. I am a mathematician, holding a doctorate in mathematical statistics, and I can tell you that a complex situation like a racehorse's performance in a race can't be described by a single number.

My first 'Derby' season was 1971 and I had latched onto Jim French, the hickory throwback to an earlier era who seemed to run every 10 days or so. He took part in all 4 parts of the Hialeah Derby series (won the Bahamas but had to give it back) with a couple of placings, then ran in the Bay Shore, Florida Derby, and Santa Anita Derby on consecutive weekends, placing in the first two and winning the last. And since it was then 4 weeks to the Derby, he ran in the Wood Memorial (4th). If that critter Canonero II hadn't shipped in from Venezuela, Jim French would have been the Derby winner, because he was a clear second on the day. None of the US-raced 3yos that year were all that much - except Hoist the Flag, who got hurt early - but they ran against one another all spring. Bold Reason, Executioner, Good Behaving, His Majesty - all nice horses who won good races in their lifetimes, but nothing even Riva Ridge-style special. Nobody was worried about their stud value being diminished by a loss because it wasn't until they had run 8-10 times that any of them HAD any value as a stallion.

In 1972/'73 Mr. Phipps offered 8mil for horse who had run 6 or 7 times.. What is 8mil 1972 dollars equivalent to in 2011 bucks?

[Pedigree Ann]

Originally Posted by freddymo

[/b]

In 1972/'73 Mr. Phipps offered 8mil for horse who had run 6 or 7 times.. What is 8mil 1972 dollars equivalent to in 2011 bucks?

And it was a highly controversial move on his part. Plenty of people thought it was an outrageous amount to pay to syndicate a horse based only on 2yo form, without a classic win or even a race at 3.

[freddymo]

Originally Posted by Pedigree Ann

And it was a highly controversial move on his part. Plenty of people thought it was an outrageous amount to pay to syndicate a horse based only on 2yo form, without a classic win or even a race at 3.

So apparently people did care about a horses value well in advance of their 10th start?

[Danzig]

Originally Posted by Betsy

I think it's more like trainers are afraid of being past their peak by the time the Derby comes around - I can't blame them for that. I agree in general that horses need to race more, but I don't have a problem with 2 preps for the Derby. There's more to racing than the Derby or the Triple Crown. In terms of THAS, he's clearly going to run as a 4 year old so he won't be retiring anytime soon due to anything other than illness or injury. How would you prefer his schedule to have gone? Run in the Holy Bull, FOY and then FLA Derby?

how do you reconcile the two? if you think horses should race more, that there's more to racing than the classics, how can you then defend someone not racing because they only have the derby in their sights?
besides, you've got rht agreeing with you. that ought to tell you you're on the wrong track.

seems like this discussion rolls around every year. horses who haven't race at three are on peoples radar as being the ones to beat, when they've yet to show a thing as a 3 yo. newcomers are dismissed, and fairly often they're the ones to watch.

[RockHardTen1985]

Originally Posted by Danzig

how do you reconcile the two? if you think horses should race more, that there's more to racing than the classics, how can you then defend someone not racing because they only have the derby in their sights?
besides, you've got rht agreeing with you. that ought to tell you you're on the wrong track.

seems like this discussion rolls around every year. horses who haven't race at three are on peoples radar as being the ones to beat, when they've yet to show a thing as a 3 yo. newcomers are dismissed, and fairly often they're the ones to watch.

I have never dismissed a newcomer and in general they never seem dismissed to me. Dunkirk and Curlin come to mind.

[King Glorious]

Originally Posted by RockHardTen1985

I have never dismissed a newcomer and in general they never seem dismissed to me. Dunkirk and Curlin come to mind.

And Big Brown, Bernardini, Smarty Jones, Flower Alley, Summer Bird, Rock Hard Ten, Eskendereya.....

The newcomers aren't dismissed but not all of us forget about the reigning leaders just because they haven't raced recently. The returning leaders have to prove they still belong; the newcomers have to prove they belong. Both groups have something to prove but if I'm going to give the benefit of the doubt to anyone, it's gonna be to the ones that have at least showed it in top company before.

[RockHardTen1985]

Originally Posted by King Glorious

And Big Brown, Bernardini, Smarty Jones, Flower Alley, Summer Bird, Rock Hard Ten, Eskendereya.....

The newcomers aren't dismissed but not all of us forget about the reigning leaders just because they haven't raced recently. The returning leaders have to prove they still belong; the newcomers have to prove they belong. Both groups have something to prove but if I'm going to give the benefit of the doubt to anyone, it's gonna be to the ones that have at least showed it in top company before.

2 on your list were not new comers.

[King Glorious]

Originally Posted by RockHardTen1985

2 on your list were not new comers.

Which two?