The Cops are coming after me...

Originally Posted by Dunbar

CR, I have 2 reasons to not agree with that way of thinking. First, it is said with hindsight. Even if you are correct that he had the perfect trip, the fact is that he came close. From the information BEFOREHAND, it is enough to have been that close. You cannot take the factors going into a race and say I am not going to bet that 21-1 shot because he is going to lose by 1 length. A much better approach, IMO, is to say that the 21-1 shot isn't that much behind the favs. He almost certainly has more than a 5% chance to win the race, so I am going to bet him. (I didn't bet him, I'm speaking generally)

The 2nd problem with the way you are thinking (IMO!) is that you are thinking of these horses like machines. You are thinking that a horse running the same path is going to run the same time under all conditions. In this particular case, you are thinking that if you give Pegasus the same nice trip time after time, he will run it exactly the same way. You are not considering variables that we can never measure, that are enough to produce a 1-length difference more often than not. (I'm not talking about different times as a result of more experience; I'm talking about the inherent uncertainty of the information we are dealing with.)

A related concept is that it was entirely possible that Scat Daddy and NoBiz could have both run into just a little more trouble than they did. It wouldn't have taken much to make Pegasus the winner. So, even if you were correct in suggesting that Pegasus could not have run a better time, there are many scenarios by which Pegasus could have won that race.

--Dunbar

Believe me, I've seen scenarios where four horses have fallen down and it allowed a $80 horse to win loose on the lead before, but who can predict that?...You wouldn't bet Pegasus Wind to win because you thought the better and faster horses than him (Scat Daddy and Nobiz Like Shobiz) were going to get in trouble and that he would have things his own way that easily ad that is why he would win, would you?

[Dunbar]

Originally Posted by Cunningham Racing

Believe me, I've seen scenarios where four horses have fallen down and it allowed a $80 horse to win loose on the lead before, but who can predict that?...You wouldn't bet Pegasus Wind to win because you thought the better and faster horses than him (Scat Daddy and Nobiz Like Shobiz) were going to get in trouble and that he would have things his own way that easily ad that is why he would win, would you?

If I thought he was just 1-3 lengths worse than those other 2, then yes, I would bet him at 21-1. My point is that when a horse loses by less than a length, it doesn't take much of a change to make that horse the winner. I only need him (or horses like him) to win 6% of the time to show an extremely nice profit.

I'm sure you understand that capping isn't about picking the most likely winner of the race. If someone doesn't understand that any horse can win (and any horse can lose), then he/she has very little chance of being a successful capper.

--Dunbar

Originally Posted by Dunbar

If I thought he was just 1-3 lengths worse than those other 2, then yes, I would bet him at 21-1. My point is that when a horse loses by less than a length, it doesn't take much of a change to make that horse the winner. I only need him (or horses like him) to win 6% of the time to show an extremely nice profit.

I'm sure you understand that capping isn't about picking the most likely winner of the race. If someone doesn't understand that any horse can win (and any horse can lose), then he/she has very little chance of being a successful capper.

--Dunbar

IMO, only 6% of the time will he get such an easy trip to capitalize on....he got that ideal, lucky, beneficial trip to give him the BEST chance to win and he still got beat by better horses who had way worse journeys than him....

Originally Posted by DaHoss9698

First of all, what was so lucky and beneficial about his trip. he is a frontrunner, they sort of make their own trips. It's not like there weren't other speeds in the race, they didn't go. And what was so bad about Scat's journey? You said way worse, so what exactly was so way worse about his trip? Nobiz, yeah he had a way worse trip, but I saw Scat as having a pretty clean trip.

Scat had to make a far wider run than NLS and Pegasus Wind, both......Pegasus Wind got away with an easy lead while hugging the rail and fractions of 24 and change and almost 48 seconds for his half mile, which is RIDICULOUSLY slow for good horses going around one turn. Yet, he still allowed horses with wider and less advantageous trips to run him over late....I'm not impressed when a horse is given a race and cannot capitalize to even run in the Exacta....

Originally Posted by DaHoss9698

Oh okay, someone had better tell Lukas that you aren't impressed. maybe he'll rethink entering in the Juvy.

God couldn't tell Lukas not to run his horses where they don't belong...that is a common practice from that barn....its all about winning the biggest races at ANY cost....