Do you think this is a really nice crop of 2 year olds?

[hockey2315]

Originally Posted by smartbid09

I'm really impressed with all the talent we have out there this year!

This is not a complete list, but look at some of the two year olds we have this year:
Uncle Mo, Boys At Tosconova, Pluck, To Honor And Serve, Ruthenia, Dancinginherdreams, Stay Thirsty, Santiva, Premier Pegasus

Cathy’s Crunches, Awesome Feather, Winter Memories, Turbulent Descent,

Big time talents.

[smartbid09]

Originally Posted by hockey2315

Big time talents.

lol

just throwing out some names that came to mind. Got a little too excited Made the changes

[RolloTomasi]

There might be some extraordinary talents in this crop, but overall the group seems anemic.

That could have been the lightest BC Juvenile in history in terms of depth.

The Champagne had a 5-horse field with an odds-on colt with but a maiden win.

The Hopeful had a 4-horse field.

The Saratoga Special had a short field and the winner broke down soon after.

The top colt at West (JPs Gusto) has the classic look of an early season 2yo that doesn't train on. The Hollywood Futurity looks like a free-for-all.

To Honor And Serve seems like the only stakes winner that will be a legitimate Derby candidate.

[Indian Charlie]

I agree with Rollo.

At the top of the crop there seem to be some monsters, but the crop lacks any depth at all once you get by the top three or so.

[VOL JACK]

Besides Dancinginherdreams, I haven't been WOW'd by many fillies.

[Rudeboyelvis]

Royal Delta could be anything - visually one of the more impressive 2yo fillies in this crop.... Looking forward to her return

[jms62]

Bodog has posted their first futures for the Derby

Odds to win the 2011 Kentucky Derby All wagers have action, Others on Request
Astrology
50/1

Biondetti
40/1

Boys at Tosconova
16/1

Curlinello
40/1

J B's Thunder
65/1

J P's Gusto
65/1

Jaycito
30/1

Mucho Macho Man
40/1

Murjan
65/1

Pathfork
30/1

Pluck
25/1

Rogue Romance
40/1

Sheriff Cogburn
40/1

Smash
50/1

Sovereign Default
50/1

Stay Thirsty
35/1

Sway Away
50/1

To Honor And Serve
16/1

Uncle Mo
4/1

Zaidan
60/1

[Kasept]

BEST BEYERS: 2-year-olds (Main track only)


Juvenile Colts (1m or more)

Uncle Mo CD 06 Nov 1 1/16M 108
To Honor and Serve AQU 27 Nov 1 1/8M 102
Gourmet Dinner DED 20 Nov 1 1/16M 93
Boys At Tosconova CD 06 Nov 1 1/16M 101
Mucho Macho Man AQU 27 Nov 1 1/8M 99
To Honor and Serve AQU 06 Nov 1M 97
Buffum BEL 30 Oct 1M 96
Cool Blue Red Hot BEL 30 Oct 1M 96
Comma to the Top HOL 06 Nov 1 1/16M 95
To Honor and Serve BEL 02 Oct 1 1/16M 95
Mountain Town AQU 27 Nov 1 1/8M 94
Uncle Mo BEL 09 Oct 1M 94


Juvenile Colts (<1m)

Boys At Tosconova BEL 02 Jul 5F 102
Uncle Mo SAR 28 Aug 6F 102
Read the Contract AQU 26 Nov 6F 98
Leave of Absence AQU 07 Nov 6F 94
Sovereign Default BEL 15 Jul 5 1/2F 94
Dual Exhauzt CRC 11 Dec 6F 93
Justin Phillip BEL 18 Sep 6F 93
J P's Gusto DMR 08 Aug 6 1/2F 92
J P's Gusto HOL 31 May 5 1/2F 92
Su Casa G Casa RP 08 Oct 6F 92


Juvenile Fillies (all distances)

Twelve Pack Shelly (f) LRL 08 Apr 4 1/2F 95
Quantum Miss (f) PEN 24 Nov 6F 94
Tales in Excess (f) DMR 04 Sep 5 1/2F 93
Honey Chile (f) KEE 09 Oct 6F 92
Promise Me a Cat (f) BEL 26 Sep 5 1/2F 92
Turbulent Descent (f) HOL 11 Dec 1 1/16M 92

[freddymo]

Originally Posted by Kasept

BEST BEYERS: 2-year-olds (Main track only)


Juvenile Colts (1m or more)

Uncle Mo CD 06 Nov 1 1/16M 108
To Honor and Serve AQU 27 Nov 1 1/8M 102
Gourmet Dinner DED 20 Nov 1 1/16M 93
Boys At Tosconova CD 06 Nov 1 1/16M 101
Mucho Macho Man AQU 27 Nov 1 1/8M 99
To Honor and Serve AQU 06 Nov 1M 97
Buffum BEL 30 Oct 1M 96
Cool Blue Red Hot BEL 30 Oct 1M 96
Comma to the Top HOL 06 Nov 1 1/16M 95
To Honor and Serve BEL 02 Oct 1 1/16M 95
Mountain Town AQU 27 Nov 1 1/8M 94
Uncle Mo BEL 09 Oct 1M 94


Juvenile Colts (<1m)

Boys At Tosconova BEL 02 Jul 5F 102
Uncle Mo SAR 28 Aug 6F 102
Read the Contract AQU 26 Nov 6F 98
Leave of Absence AQU 07 Nov 6F 94
Sovereign Default BEL 15 Jul 5 1/2F 94
Dual Exhauzt CRC 11 Dec 6F 93
Justin Phillip BEL 18 Sep 6F 93
J P's Gusto DMR 08 Aug 6 1/2F 92
J P's Gusto HOL 31 May 5 1/2F 92
Su Casa G Casa RP 08 Oct 6F 92


Juvenile Fillies (all distances)

Twelve Pack Shelly (f) LRL 08 Apr 4 1/2F 95
Quantum Miss (f) PEN 24 Nov 6F 94
Tales in Excess (f) DMR 04 Sep 5 1/2F 93
Honey Chile (f) KEE 09 Oct 6F 92
Promise Me a Cat (f) BEL 26 Sep 5 1/2F 92
Turbulent Descent (f) HOL 11 Dec 1 1/16M 92

What BSF did the Von Hemmel at Remington get?

[Kasept]

Originally Posted by freddymo

What BSF did the Von Hemmel at Remington get?

79

[Kasept]

Originally Posted by Kasept

BEST BEYERS: 2-year-olds (Main track only)

Juvenile Colts (1m or more)

Uncle Mo CD 06 Nov 1 1/16M 108
To Honor and Serve AQU 27 Nov 1 1/8M 102
Gourmet Dinner DED 20 Nov 1 1/16M 93
Boys At Tosconova CD 06 Nov 1 1/16M 101
Mucho Macho Man AQU 27 Nov 1 1/8M 99
To Honor and Serve AQU 06 Nov 1M 97
Buffum BEL 30 Oct 1M 96
Cool Blue Red Hot BEL 30 Oct 1M 96
Comma to the Top HOL 06 Nov 1 1/16M 95
To Honor and Serve BEL 02 Oct 1 1/16M 95
Mountain Town AQU 27 Nov 1 1/8M 94
Uncle Mo BEL 09 Oct 1M 94

Albertrani told ATR listeners Monday that BUFFUM has been plucked by Darley for the UAE Derby path and will ship soon to Dubai..

[JerseyJ]

Originally Posted by Kasept

Albertrani told ATR listeners Monday that BUFFUM has been plucked by Darley for the UAE Derby path and will ship soon to Dubai..

Which means he'll not be heard from again until he comes off of a 6-9 month layoff at Satatoga in an allowance.

[freddymo]

Originally Posted by Kasept

Albertrani told ATR listeners Monday that BUFFUM has been plucked by Darley for the UAE Derby path and will ship soon to Dubai..

That is awesome news. Albertrani most be thrilled, I guess Bernarndini was a 1 off?

[Linny]

Originally Posted by RolloTomasi

There might be some extraordinary talents in this crop, but overall the group seems anemic.

That could have been the lightest BC Juvenile in history in terms of depth.

The Champagne had a 5-horse field with an odds-on colt with but a maiden win.

The Hopeful had a 4-horse field.

The Saratoga Special had a short field and the winner broke down soon after.

The top colt at West (JPs Gusto) has the classic look of an early season 2yo that doesn't train on. The Hollywood Futurity looks like a free-for-all.

To Honor And Serve seems like the only stakes winner that will be a legitimate Derby candidate.

I think that the way the leading candidates in each barn are handled has changed and the Champage and the BCJ are proof. In the early years of the BC, 2yo's continued to campaign as they always had. Big outfits wanted their 2yo's to break their maiden before the summer meets at Saratoga and Del Mar so they'd shoot for the prominent stakes there. Then they'd run twice at Belmont in the fall (Futurity, Champage) then the best head to the BCJ.
Now it's a different game. Those colts that trainers see has 'classic types" are held out 'til Labor Day weekend (or nearly so) and get one race at Belmont (Champagne) then of the BCJ. Since the BCJ has proven such a poor predictor of success at 3, alot of folks are just skipping it (To Honor and Serve) and looking for alternatives. With an Uncle Mo looming over the BCJ, why not try for big money at Delta or Remington before testing your colt. After all, recent history has shown that leading babies flatten out before the Derby. Why not get experience over the track in the KYJC or try 9f in the Remsen? Those races wont get you an Eclipse but the Juvie Awards have (of late) been like the kiss of death .

As for this crop, I think it's a good one. As noted above, alot of babies have run big figs. Does that means they will all stay sound and hit Louisville ready to run a 120 on the first Saturday of May? No, but it means there is some talent out there. Remember too that those babies toiling earning 80-85 figs may have plenty of room to improve. This time a few years ago none of us had heard of Curlin and next year's Derby winner may as yet be unstarted or have just a poor maiden loss to his name.

[randallscott35]

I think by April it is easier to assess a crop in terms of depth and quality but so far so good with this one.

[RolloTomasi]

Originally Posted by Linny

Now it's a different game. Those colts that trainers see has 'classic types" are held out 'til Labor Day weekend (or nearly so) and get one race at Belmont (Champagne) then of the BCJ. Since the BCJ has proven such a poor predictor of success at 3, alot of folks are just skipping it (To Honor and Serve) and looking for alternatives.

I don't think trainers are that literal, to worry about races as "predictors" to the point that they would avoid running in a particular race, save for the genius Godolphin group and their laughable Ruler's Court debacle.

Anyways, you're mistaken about the BC Juvenile. Spend A Buck, Tank's Prospect, Chief's Crown (84); Danzig Connection (85); Alysheba, Bet Twice, Gulch (86); Easy Goer (88); Go And Go, Pleasant Tap (89); Best Pal (90); Pine Bluff, Dance Floor (91); Sea Hero (92); Tabasco Cat, Blumin Affair (93); Timber Country, Tejano Run (94); Editor's Note (95); Lemon Drop Kid, Cat Thief (98); Point Given, AP Valentine (00); Afleet Alex (04); Street Sense (06); Mine That Bird, Pioneerof The Nile (08); Lookin At Lucky (09). All Classic winners or Classic-placed. 17 of 25 Juveniles have produced at least one Classic winner.

To Honor And Serve had but a maiden win to his credit. He simply didn't have the credentials to take a shot at the BC.

[Linny]

Originally Posted by RolloTomasi

I don't think trainers are that literal, to worry about races as "predictors" to the point that they would avoid running in a particular race, save for the genius Godolphin group and their laughable Ruler's Court debacle.

Anyways, you're mistaken about the BC Juvenile. Spend A Buck, Tank's Prospect, Chief's Crown (84); Danzig Connection (85); Alysheba, Bet Twice, Gulch (86); Easy Goer (88); Go And Go, Pleasant Tap (89); Best Pal (90); Pine Bluff, Dance Floor (91); Sea Hero (92); Tabasco Cat, Blumin Affair (93); Timber Country, Tejano Run (94); Editor's Note (95); Lemon Drop Kid, Cat Thief (98); Point Given, AP Valentine (00); Afleet Alex (04); Street Sense (06); Mine That Bird, Pioneerof The Nile (08); Lookin At Lucky (09). All Classic winners or Classic-placed. 17 of 25 Juveniles have produced at least one Classic winner.

To Honor And Serve had but a maiden win to his credit. He simply didn't have the credentials to take a shot at the BC.

I should have said "winning the Juvenile" is not a predictor of 3yo success. There has clearly been a decrease in the top to bottom quality of the BCJ since 2000. If you are not willing to go all out to win the BCJ, to some it might be better to look for other routes.
Few potential classic colts race before mid August. To Honor and Serve is typical. He debuted near the end of Saratoga and since he didn't win, his connections didn't see fit to try stakes as the Champagne is all that was available in NY. They got him his maiden win but by then it was too late to try the BC and why should they take a maiden winner and toss him to Uncle Mo and Boys at Toscanova and the better colts from Cali?
More and more "potential classic colts" are being handled this way. Ten years ago everyone was agog at Drysdale pointing to the Derby with FuPeg when he didn't break his maiden 'til Santa Anita. Now we're comfortable with the idea that the Derby or Preakness winner might not have ever raced yet.

[RolloTomasi]

Originally Posted by Linny

There has clearly been a decrease in the top to bottom quality of the BCJ since 2000.

Not really. In addition to the classic colts: Macho Again, Street Cry, Burning Roma, City Zip, Scorpion, Dollar Bill, Noverre, Yonaguska (00); Repent, Publication, Came Home, Essence Of Dubai (01); Kafwain, Hold That Tiger, Zavata, Wando, Toccet (02); Sun King, Consolidator, Roman Ruler (04); Henny Hughes, Brother Derek, Private Vow (05); Circular Quay, Great Hunter, Scat Daddy, Stormello, King Of The Roxy, Teuflesberg (06); Pyro, Kodiak Kowboy, Tale Of Ekati (07); Munnings (08); Eskendereya, D'Funnybone (09) all came out to win Grade 1 or Grade 2 races subsequent to the Juvenile. Even the lowly '03 Juvenile had eventual Grade 1 turf horse Relaxed Gesture.

Certainly in the last few years some colts and fillies have bucked tradition (eg Curlin, Big Brown, Bernardini, Rags To Riches) but I hardly think it was necessarily by design. Physical issues seemed to hold those types back more than anything.

Going by this year's waif-like BC Juvenile, your theory would seem more sound. But if trainers were really "holding back" then you'd anticipate that races like the Remsen and Kentucky Jockey Club would have been deep, contentious races. That wasn't the case.

Instead, it looks like it will simply be a lean year. The reason for the odd campaigning this year by certain trainers (Pletcher, Asmussen, Dutrow) was probably a consequence of distinct physical problems with individual horses (Kantharos, perhaps Boys Of Toscanova), not an attempt to get to the Classics (8 months later) in a new, unorthodox manner.