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#1
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![]() Pedigree is more important than any handicapping factor other than current form. I cannot imagine not taking it into account. BBB
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#2
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![]() Pedigree is the most overrated thing in racing if u ask me. Like, there are some that say that Smarty Jones got beat in the Belmont because of his pedigree. I think that's crazy. Pedigree is good as a HINT of something a horse might be able to do before they try it. But once they step on the track and show their abilities, the pedigree is useless. And it's especially silly, IMO, to not try certain horses at certain things simply because their pedigree suggests they may not like it. I say that u let the horses themselves show what they can and can't do before deciding. Pedigree is extremely overrated, IMO, and is NEVER a factor in my handicapping a race.
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The real horses of the year (1986-2020) Manila, Java Gold, Alysheba, Sunday Silence, Go for Wand, In Excess, Paseana, Kotashaan, Holy Bull, Cigar, Alphabet Soup, Formal Gold, Skip Away, Artax, Tiznow, Point Given, Azeri, Candy Ride, Smarty Jones, Ghostzapper, Invasor, Curlin, Zenyatta, Zenyatta, Goldikova, Havre de Grace, Wise Dan, Wise Dan, California Chrome, American Pharoah, Arrogate, Gun Runner, Accelerate, Maximum Security, Gamine |
#3
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![]() I agree with paisjpg-
It should be taken into account for first turf, and somewhat for maiden races. But even in Maiden races, look at trainer stats with maidens, first-time starters, 2nd starts, etc etc more than the pedigree.
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Facebook- Peter May Jr. Twitter- @pmayjr You wouldn't be ballin' if your name was Spauldin' If y'all fresh to death, then I'm deceased... |
#4
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![]() Pedigree rules for first timers. For 3 year olds it says a lot about whether they can get a distance. Especially the Belmont.
Instead of just breeding the best with the best and getting a lot of crap, a serious mating produces a much higher rate of success. By serious I mean at least the first 5 gens and the linebreeding chart for 9 gens. A good student of pedigree can separate the wheat from the chaff in a lot of instances. |
#5
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![]() Pedigree figures in my handicapping prominently for lightly raced horses and surface/ distance changes. Other than those specific situations, I give it only a glance.
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Do I think Charity can win? Well, I am walking around in yesterday's suit. |
#6
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![]() I know too much about genetics to see the horrible fallacies associated with pedigree handicapping. If someday the horse genome is mapped and we got genes associated with particular traits that we know aid running ability in someway, then I would be more comfortable. Otherwise, crapshoot. You got to look at a horse doing what they are supposed to do, RUN. You dont need to know what granmammy did on the track unless you are desperate.
Again I believe this is a British Royality hold over pile o crap. My daddy was a Duke. So what. |
#7
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![]() So if you see a first time starter, you don't check whether his sire gets a high percentage of first out winners or not? You don't care if he is by Carson City (18% first out, speed sire) or by Deputy Commander (4% first out, distance sire)? . I am a statistician and understand that for all the breed's variability, different strains of the breed have well-defined proclivities, as reflected in accumlated statistics. If you have a Meadowlake out of a Mt. Livermore mare you will expect a precocious, speedy sprinter/miler; a Kingmambo out of a Lord at War mare would be expected to excell over a distance of ground, probably on turf, and likely to be later maturing.
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#8
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![]() I obviously love all things Slew, so I pay attention to just that line in terms of pedigree. Beyond that, I look at what the horse has actually done. It just so happens that two of the top horses are Slews, so it is rewarding for me personally; it is not rewarding financially, however. What can I collect on Bernardini and Lava Man!
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#9
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![]() Quote:
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#10
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![]() The best thing about pedigree as a factor is that it is not used by the masses, so spot plays can bring better prices.
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Do I think Charity can win? Well, I am walking around in yesterday's suit. |
#11
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![]() Yes, I use it, especially for unraced/lightly raced and turf and off-tracks.
I pay as much attention to broodmare stats as sire stats. Youbet.com has a pretty nice package on this. I find it useful. |
#12
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![]() So, here's a question -- and it might be a stupid one. Why is it that in the harness game, breeding/pedigree (and the related stats) has nothing to do with gambling on two year old races, first time starters, etc.?
Now harness racing of course has a universal race distance. But you never hear a harness handicapper say "Well, Artsplace offspring win at 15% first time out" or something along those lines. I have heard people say that a particular stallion throws speed, his two year olds get going early, etc. but it has much less meaning. Thank you. Eric |
#13
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![]() Now that polytrack is in your future you better learn how to spot good turf pedigree. I love it when the betters say they don't consider Pedigree, Jockey or Weights when they handicap a race.
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