Roger Stein on Beyer on Zenyatta

[Port Conway Lane]

Originally Posted by Rupert Pupkin

I just watched the race a few more times.

I watched it again and from the broadcast view it's impossible for me to determine how far back she was after 2 1/2 furlongs.

I think her correct final 7 furlong time was a few ticks slower than I originally thought.

Soon after the leader crossed the 7 furlong marker the camera showed a view that could more accurately estimate how far back she was and 16 lengths is my guess.

[Travis Stone]

It's a good thing she was so far behind... if she was closer, who knows how much punch she has late. The pace killed the chances of anyone close to it... the farther off, the better.

[Rupert Pupkin]

Originally Posted by Travis Stone

It's a good thing she was so far behind... if she was closer, who knows how much punch she has late. The pace killed the chances of anyone close to it... the farther off, the better.

The further back the better? If Mike Smith would have known that, he could have dropped a few lengths further back. I'm sure he would have won then.

[slotdirt]

How hard is it to understand that the only reason she even came close to winning was because she was so far off that pace? This really is not rocket science.

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Originally Posted by Rupert Pupkin

The further back the better? If Mike Smith would have known that, he could have dropped a few lengths further back. I'm sure he would have won then.

If Borel only had Mine That Bird five lengths closer to the lead going into the 1st turn - he would have won the Kentucky Derby by 12 lengths instead of 7.




If Ice Box was only 20 back at the first call instead of 24 back - and Make Music Music For Me was only 23 back instead of 28 back at the first call - Ice Box would have won the Derby in a route with Make Music For Me 2nd.

You're basically KYRIM ... but because you're not a 20-year-old female people don't want to give you crap. Did Zenyatta also crossfire?

[Rupert Pupkin]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

If Borel only had Mine That Bird five lengths closer to the lead going into the 1st turn - he would have won the Kentucky Derby by 12 lengths instead of 7.




If Ice Box was only 20 back at the first call instead of 24 back - and Make Music Music For Me was only 23 back instead of 28 back at the first call - Ice Box would have won the Derby in a route with Make Music For Me 2nd.

You're basically KYRIM ... but because you're not a 20-year-old female people don't want to give you crap. Did Zenyatta also crossfire?

Being way back totally helped Ice Box and Make Music For Me. I have never disputed that. That was a race in the slop where the half-mile went :46. That's a nice comparison. You're going to compare 3 year olds going :46 in the slop to older horses going :47 on a fast track. Good argument.

By the way, how did Zenyatta get within a head of Blame? He wasn't going too fast. He went :48 4/5 or :49. He had no excuses and he only beat Zenyatta by a head. I thought he was 10 lengths better than Zenyatta.

[slotdirt]

I give credit to Robert for defending his position, but he's worse than Joe Miller in realizing that he's been soundly defeated.

[Rupert Pupkin]

Originally Posted by slotdirt

I give credit to Robert for defending his position, but he's worse than Joe Miller in realizing that he's been soundly defeated.

I hope you're kidding. You would be hard pressed to find a single person that knows what they're looking at that that would tell you Zenyatta was travelling comfortably in the early going. I don't care if she was 3 lengths back or 50 lengths back. All you have to do is look at the way she was moving. You don't have to be a vet or a trainer to see it. If you have any sort of eye for horses at all, you would be able to see it.

Steve Haskins is not a vet or a trainer. He could see it.

Do you think we are all hallucinating? Do you think every trainer on the west coast (I haven't talked to all of them but I've talked to 5 of them) is so "gaga" over Zenyatta that they are imaging things?

Mike Smith confided in an interview that he thought about pulling her up. You think he was just imagining that she didn't feel like right?

[Dahoss]

It's amazing how it went from "every" trainer...to 5 in the span of a few words.

I get it though. More insider bulls.hit. You see it and us peons don't. So she wasn't feeling right, but within a span of a minute suddenly felt better and ran really well. Maybe she's the equine version of popeye and Smith gave her some spinach up the backstretch.

She lost. It's going to be okay. Really it is. So what if she isn't the superhorse you DESPERATELY need and want her to be. It's going to be okay.

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Originally Posted by Rupert Pupkin

I hope you're kidding. You would be hard pressed to find a single person that knows what they're looking at

All you have to do is look at the way she was moving. You don't have to be a vet or a trainer to see it. If you have any sort of eye for horses at all, you would be able to see it.

Speaking of your impeccable "eye for horses"

I'm just wondering if you will keep your word and eat your racing form as you promised in the following thread.

http://www.derbytrail.com/forums/showthread.php?t=21060

You write about a $650,000 sales topper 2-year-old - and claim "If he's not a stakes horse, I will eat my Racing Form"

That horse never managed to do anything more than string a couple of moderate published workouts on a few separate occasions. He's still winless.

But that wasn't all ... Rupert did singe out one unraced horse who "couldn't run a lick" in that thread ... he turned out to be 3-time Graded Stakes winning sprinter Munnings.

Yes, that's the kind of impeccable eye us dummies all lack.

Originally Posted by Rupert Pupkin

Steve Haskins is not a vet or a trainer. He could see it.

While no one could ever dispute the impeccable eye (for dapples) Haskin has - he also mentioned before the race that Blame might be better off if positioned behind Zenyatta early on. A laughably absurd idea.

[slotdirt]

Steve Haskin is a dapple expert. You got me there.

[Rupert Pupkin]

Originally Posted by Port Conway Lane

I watched it again and from the broadcast view it's impossible for me to determine how far back she was after 2 1/2 furlongs.



Soon after the leader crossed the 7 furlong marker the camera showed a view that could more accurately estimate how far back she was and 16 lengths is my guess.

I don't know if you have an account there, but Racereplays.com has the normal pan-shot of the race. You can make a pretty good estimate from that angle.