Melbourne,Australia Summer Carnival 2010

[_ed_]

I do believe Katie Lee is better. Matter of opinion, I guess.

I think she's a couple of lengths better than Seachange, who raced pretty well in top company over there.

Anyway, we'll see what happens. The point I was making at first was that Culminate's odds should not be lower than Katie Lee's.

[Pedigree Ann]

I may have to stay up late to watch the races instead of watching the replays in the morning. I'm a morning person so staying up to 1am or 1:30 is hard for me to do. When we switch off of daylight time on Sunday, the Aussie races will be on at a more reasonable time - Melbourne Cup will be run before midnight here in the Bluegrass.

[Pedigree Ann]

Originally Posted by _ed_

I do believe Katie Lee is better. Matter of opinion, I guess.

I think she's a couple of lengths better than Seachange, who raced pretty well in top company over there.

Anyway, we'll see what happens. The point I was making at first was that Culminate's odds should not be lower than Katie Lee's.

They are based on racing in local conditions. Culminate just won a race and Katie Lee finished up the track in her Aussie debut. The local folks are likely to look at those facts and conclude that Katie Lee hasn't traveled well or whatever and not bet as much on her as on a recent winner.

Although the distance isn't as far, the example of My Own True Love Cougar II might demonstrate the dynamic. Cougar was only 4th or 5th best 3yo in his homeland of Chile, but the top two also transferred to the US and ran nowhere near as well as Coug did up north.

[magic_idol]

Race 5 CLEAR 2:05 PM EST Longines Mackinnon Stakes(GROUP 1) 2000m $1,000,000 No Last 10 Horse Jockey Wg Trainer Career Rtg
1 211-86-71524 SHOCKING(11) (BLKS) Michael Rodd 59.0 Mark Kavanagh 22-6-6-2 118
2 2-6911-12348 METAL BENDER(1) (BLKS) Hugh Bowman 59.0 Chris Waller 18-8-3-1 116
3 400089-0516 C'EST LA GUERRE(7) Dwayne Dunn 59.0 Robert Hickmott 26-6-2-1 108
4 323619-1521 GINGA DUDE(10) Michael Walker 59.0 Graeme Boyd 34-12-5-4 106
5 152-6146125 RAINBOW STYLING(3) Luke Nolen 59.0 Michael, Wayne & John Hawkes 28-7-7-4 103
6 1-21512-1111 SO YOU THINK(8) Steven Arnold 58.0 Bart Cummings 10-7-2-0 122
7 8-4322-06101 DESCARADO(5) Nash Rawiller 58.0 Gai Waterhouse 14-4-4-1 115
8 2141-113334 SHOOT OUT(2) Corey Brown 58.0 John Wallace 17-7-2-3 116
9 111-88731-05 KIDNAPPED(4) (BLKS) Kerrin McEvoy 58.0 Peter Snowden 16-5-1-2 104
10 1228-0-30229 TRUSTING(12) Jim Cassidy 58.0 John P Thompson 12-2-4-1 107
11 4451112-323 RED COLOSSUS(6) Chris Symons 58.0 Greg Eurell 13-4-2-2 94
12 11-1912-8960 FAINT PERFUME(9) James Winks 56.0 Bart Cummings 15-5-1-1 108

You'd think this would be a easy race to pick but what you have to remember that the big race is on tuesday & those in the melbourne cup use this as their prep for that race, thus
it makes it a damn hard race to pick a Winner -)

[_ed_]

Hearing reports that a month's worth of rain is going to fall in the next 48 hours. That's unbelievable. Is there a chance that tomorrow's races could even be called off? They'll get loads of scratchings if the rain really hits hard.

[my miss storm cat]

Originally Posted by _ed_

Hearing reports that a month's worth of rain is going to fall in the next 48 hours. That's unbelievable. Is there a chance that tomorrow's races could even be called off? They'll get loads of scratchings if the rain really hits hard.

Oh gee I heard rain but with no details!

[_ed_]

CLG must come into the MacKinnon if it's wet.

But it's so hard to predict when he'll be good.

[my miss storm cat]

Originally Posted by _ed_

CLG must come into the MacKinnon if it's wet.

But it's so hard to predict when he'll be good.

Yeah I'm a fan but I've lost a little too much on him at this point... can never be sure but then Lion Tamer finally paid me back, so there's always hope.

Metal Bender for me.

Simplify it, take a stand, leave it at that and plan on losing a lot on Cup day! ( I mean that's what I'm doing and not that you should!).

[_ed_]

Originally Posted by Pedigree Ann

They are based on racing in local conditions. Culminate just won a race and Katie Lee finished up the track in her Aussie debut. The local folks are likely to look at those facts and conclude that Katie Lee hasn't traveled well or whatever and not bet as much on her as on a recent winner.

Although the distance isn't as far, the example of My Own True Love Cougar II might demonstrate the dynamic. Cougar was only 4th or 5th best 3yo in his homeland of Chile, but the top two also transferred to the US and ran nowhere near as well as Coug did up north.

Yeah, good point.

[my miss storm cat]

Originally Posted by _ed_

The point I was making at first was that Culminate's odds should not be lower than Katie Lee's.

Agree.

These fields are insane, by the way. I think I might just put win bets down on Metal Bender and Black Piranha (I'm not delisional with this one no matter how much I like him. I usually don't think he can win but against this field I'd say sure, there's a chance) and leave it at that. Watch and enjoy the rest and wait for the Cup.