The Travers

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Originally Posted by Arletta

against a Haskell field many consider the deepest in the race's 43-year history.[/i]"

Yes - many people without even basic handicapping skills.

Just because people have watched horse racing and have been in the industry for a long, long time ... doesn't mean they have even the slightest idea what they're talking about when it comes to making competent judgments that involve a morsel of handicapping skill.

[Danzig]

Originally Posted by Arletta

An excerpt from an article in the BloodHorse

"A year after Rachel Alexandra completed the Preakness/Haskell double en route to Horse of the Year honors, Lookin At Lucky has accomplished the same feat -- against a Haskell field many consider the deepest in the race's 43-year history."



http://www.bloodhorse.com/horse-raci...ookin-at-lucky

deep and good aren't necessarily the same thing. you had classic win/place horses in there, that's where they got the deep from. and yes, it's true, the race today drew a lot of the better horses this year compared to past haskells. doesn't mean it's a better crop tho. lookin at lucky won-someone had to. doesn't mean he's very, very good. or even very good. slow time, yet another slow time to add to all the other slow times this year.

[ateamstupid]

Originally Posted by RockHardTen1985

I dont give a **** what the beyer comes back, they are subjective pieces of crap that get changed at the drop of a hat.

This is too funny. You were going on about how great a race it was and using your imaginary Beyers to support that, then when you are told the accurate figure, Beyers are meaningless and subjective.

[RockHardTen1985]

Originally Posted by ateamstupid

This is too funny. You were going on about how great a race it was and using your imaginary Beyers to support that, then when you are told the accurate figure, Beyers are meaningless and subjective.

I did not go on and not one told me an accurate figure... I said likely 110-115, you said something that I ignored lol. Where did I go on? Every single time you say anything to me, your wrong.

[Port Conway Lane]

Originally Posted by philcski

Here are the winners of the Haskell the last 20 or so years and you tell me where you would rank him amongst them.
Lookin At Lucky
Rachel Alexandra
Big Brown
Any Given Saturday
Bluegrass Cat
Roman Ruler
Lion Heart
Peace Rules
War Emblem
Point Given
Dixie Union
Menifee
Coronado's Quest
Touch Gold
Skip Away
Serena's Song
Holy Bull
Kissin Kris
Technology
Lost Mountain
Restless Con
King Glorious
Forty Niner
Bet Twice

One word answer.
LAST

If LAL runs in and wins the Travers he will join four of the horses on the list who have won both the Haskell and Travers. I see at least 7 horses on that list that have nowhere near LAL's resume and 7 that he could easily surpass by the end of the year.

[philcski]

Originally Posted by Port Conway Lane

If LAL runs in and wins the Travers he will join four of the horses on the list who have won both the Haskell and Travers. I see at least 7 horses on that list that have nowhere near LAL's resume and 7 that he could easily surpass by the end of the year.

You're missing the point. Yes, he has built a pretty impressive resume thus far. I have no issue with anyone saying he's the best 3yo this year, because he is. But he's the best of a bad bunch, just like Big Brown was in 2008. He's done very little to say historically he stacks up in my opinion.

Seriously, just looking at the 4 you highlighted- Lookin at Lucky would get crushed by all of them.

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Originally Posted by Port Conway Lane

If LAL runs in and wins the Travers he will join four of the horses on the list who have won both the Haskell and Travers. I see at least 7 horses on that list that have nowhere near LAL's resume and 7 that he could easily surpass by the end of the year.

Who cares what a "resume" looks like?

What are LAL's best races?

The Haskell? Where he beat a hard luck 2nd place finisher Trappe Shot who was coming off of a 2.5 length win over Nacho Friend in a 4 horse field.

The 3rd place finisher First Dude is 1-for-9 and has one of the nicest resume's ever for a horse who still has his N1X allowance condition.


Or maybe you prefer Lookin at Lucky's 102 Beyer Preakness win - where he beat such wonderful competition as First Dude (great resume for an N1X'er!) Jackson Bend (0-for-6 this year and 5th in the Pegasus most recently) Yawanna Twist was 4th beaten less than 2 lengths in the Preakness - and he's yet to win anything other than a NY Bred MSW and NY Bred N1X, both at 6fs on the Inner dirt at AQU.

[ateamstupid]

Originally Posted by RockHardTen1985

I did not go on and not one told me an accurate figure... I said likely 110-115, you said something that I ignored lol. Where did I go on? Every single time you say anything to me, your wrong.

You say this, and then when I don't respond to your posts or PMs seriously, you cry about how I'm just trying to clown you.

You're losing it. You used Beyers to back up your contention that it was a great race, then several others and I showed you why the Beyer wouldn't be close to the number you pulled out of your ass, and suddenly Beyers are meaningless to you. It was a mediocre race by any metric, so deal with it.

[Port Conway Lane]

Originally Posted by philcski

You're missing the point. Yes, he has built a pretty impressive resume thus far. I have no issue with anyone saying he's the best 3yo this year, because he is. But he's the best of a bad bunch, just like Big Brown was in 2008. He's done very little to say historically he stacks up in my opinion.

Seriously, just looking at the 4 you highlighted- Lookin at Lucky would get crushed by all of them.

My point is that he would join those four in winning both premier Summer races.
I didn't say he stacks up to the four in question but for you to say "one word answer, LAST" I'm pretty confident he's closer to those four than at least seven others on the list are to him. He is in the process of developing as all 3yo's are and once in a while it's refreshing to see a top 2yo continue on to a competitive season.

Lost Mountain? Please

[Indian Charlie]

Originally Posted by philcski

Here are the winners of the Haskell the last 20 or so years and you tell me where you would rank him amongst them.
Lookin At Lucky
Rachel Alexandra
Big Brown
Any Given Saturday
Bluegrass Cat
Roman Ruler
Lion Heart
Peace Rules
War Emblem
Point Given
Dixie Union
Menifee
Coronado's Quest
Touch Gold
Skip Away
Serena's Song
Holy Bull
Kissin Kris
Technology
Lost Mountain
Restless Con
King Glorious
Forty Niner
Bet Twice

One word answer.
LAST

Dont be ridiculous.

[Port Conway Lane]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

Who cares what a "resume" looks like?

What are LAL's best races?

The Haskell? Where he beat a hard luck 2nd place finisher Trappe Shot who was coming off of a 2.5 length win over Nacho Friend in a 4 horse field.

The 3rd place finisher First Dude is 1-for-9 and has one of the nicest resume's ever for a horse who still has his N1X allowance condition.


Or maybe you prefer Lookin at Lucky's 102 Beyer Preakness win - where he beat such wonderful competition as First Dude (great resume for an N1X'er!) Jackson Bend (0-for-6 this year and 5th in the Pegasus most recently) Yawanna Twist was 4th beaten less than 2 lengths in the Preakness - and he's yet to win anything other than a NY Bred MSW and NY Bred N1X, both at 6fs on the Inner dirt at AQU.

Look, go back in time during the middle of the year of most 3yo's and start picking apart the accomplishments of the horses who so and so beat at that moment in their careers.

I'll take a resume over a flash in the pan "two race top beyer number" horse anyday.

[Rupert Pupkin]

Originally Posted by philcski

Here are the winners of the Haskell the last 20 or so years and you tell me where you would rank him amongst them.
Lookin At Lucky
Rachel Alexandra
Big Brown
Any Given Saturday
Bluegrass Cat
Roman Ruler
Lion Heart
Peace Rules
War Emblem
Point Given
Dixie Union
Menifee
Coronado's Quest
Touch Gold
Skip Away
Serena's Song
Holy Bull
Kissin Kris
Technology
Lost Mountain
Restless Con
King Glorious
Forty Niner
Bet Twice

One word answer.
LAST

I would probably rank him a little below average on that list but I certainly wouldn't rank him last.

His performance today surprised me. I thought he was the horse to beat but I thought it was a competitive field. I thought he deserved to be the favorite but I thought he should have been the 5-2 favorite, not the 6-5 favorite. I was totally wrong. He blew them away. He won like a 6-5 shot.

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Originally Posted by Port Conway Lane

My point is that he would join those four in winning both premier Summer races.
I didn't say he stacks up to the four in question but for you to say "one word answer, LAST" I'm pretty confident he's closer to those four than at least seven others on the list are to him. He is in the process of developing as all 3yo's are and once in a while it's refreshing to see a top 2yo continue on to a competitive season.

Lost Mountain? Please

Lost Mountain won the race with a 107 Beyer and the next out Travers 1-2 finishers were second and third to him. It's not like his Haskell performance would have left him smoked by todays winner.

Here's a 3-year-old who went 3-for-11 .... Captain Steve.



He took on older horses in the Ky Cup, Goodwood, and Breeders Cup Classic - and beat every single one of them. The older Golden Missile was 2nd to him in the KY Cup with the Hollywood Gold Cup winner 3rd. Fellow 3yo Tiznow beat him in the Goodwood and fellow 3yo's Tiznow and Giant's Causeway beat him in the BC Classic. In fact, 3yo Albert The Great was 4th in that years Breeders Cup Classic after winning the JCGC with a 119 Beyer against olders in his prior start.

If you go 30 horses deep ... that 3yo crop of 2000 crushes any I've seen since. It's tough to put together a great resume when the opposition you face doesn't suck.

[dalakhani]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

Lost Mountain won the race with a 107 Beyer and the next out Travers 1-2 finishers were second and third to him. It's not like his Haskell performance would have left him smoked by todays winner.

Here's a 3-year-old who went 3-for-11 .... Captain Steve.



He took on older horses in the Ky Cup, Goodwood, and Breeders Cup Classic - and beat every single one of them. The older Golden Missile was 2nd to him in the KY Cup with the Hollywood Gold Cup winner 3rd. Fellow 3yo Tiznow beat him in the Goodwood and fellow 3yo's Tiznow and Giant's Causeway beat him in the BC Classic. In fact, 3yo Albert The Great was 4th in that years Breeders Cup Classic after winning the JCGC with a 119 Beyer against olders in his prior start.

If you go 30 horses deep ... that 3yo crop of 2000 crushes any I've seen since. It's tough to put together a great resume when the opposition you face doesn't suck.

Counting Fupeg, 5 of the top 6 from that classic were three year olds. In the distaff, three of the top four were 3 year olds and War Chant won the mile.

More than ready, El corredor, left bank, lido palace.

That was a great year. One could make the case that the older horses sucked that year though. I can only remember LDK being any good.

[Port Conway Lane]

Ok so you're using Lost Mountain's 107 beyer as proof of his historic comparison to LAL ? Then I see the pps of a horse who's not even on the list in question. Who by the way looked like a tough customer.

I get that. Some horses are born in the wrong year. But often their measure of talent can be exaggerated because of who they faced just as a horse like
LAL's ability is downgraded because of who he has been beating. There is a median in there somewhere and Beyer numbers aren't the end all in determining how good a horse is. If they were Sinister Minister or Bellamy Road would be household names.

I wouldn't mind seeing Lost Mountain's pps. I bet him in the Derby.

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Originally Posted by Port Conway Lane

Ok so you're using Lost Mountain's 107 beyer as proof of his historic comparison to LAL ?

It's proof enough that the Lookin At Lucky's who won the Haskell wouldn't have smoked the Lost Mountain who won the Haskell.

[There is a median in there somewhere and Beyer numbers aren't the end all in determining how good a horse is. If they were Sinister Minister or Bellamy Road would be household names. .

They simply determine how fast a horse ran in said race in relation to the speed of the race track. Sinister Minister was never a good horse - but he would have beat the ever loving piss out of Lookin At Lucky if LAL faced him in his 13 length Grade 1 Blue Grass win over an extreme inside speed track.

Bluegrass Cat was beaten 21+ lengths in that Blue Grass - and he ran 2nd in the Derby and Belmont in his next two starts, before winning the Haskell by 7 lengths and ending his career with a 2nd in the Travers.

Strong Contender was beaten 17+ lengths in that Blue Grass - and he came back and later took the Dwyer by 8 and beat Lawyer Ron in the Super Derby.

Wild Syn - who was pathetic beyond belief - went wire-to-wire from the rail in a different edition of the Blue Grass and two well beaten horses came back and ran 1st and 2nd in the Ky Derby three weeks later. That's Keeneland.

Bellamy Road's 17.5 length Grade 1 win Wood number wasn't wrong either - and unlike Sinister Minister his performance wasn't a fluke caused by a crazy bias. Scrappy T. was 3rd by 18+ and took a Grade 3 at 7/1 next out followed by a 2nd place finish in the Preakness.

If you think Lookin at Lucky wins that Wood Memorial if he was entered that day - you're a total clown.

Resumes that are put together against real nice N1X alw horses like First Dude, or the 0-for-forever Jackson Bend, or tough luck Trappe Shot in his Graded Stakes debut would look a lot better if the figures weren't so weak.

Freaking Milwaukee Brew ran a 110 Beyer when he was 3rd in the Haskell - and he was what - like the 37th best 3yo to race that year?

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Originally Posted by dalakhani

Counting Fupeg, 5 of the top 6 from that classic were three year olds. In the distaff, three of the top four were 3 year olds and War Chant won the mile.

More than ready, El corredor, left bank, lido palace.

That was a great year. One could make the case that the older horses sucked that year though. I can only remember LDK being any good.

There are A LOT of really solid routers you're leaving out as well.

Also some pretty damn good sprinters - Caller One was a monster as a 3yo. Probably the best 3yo sprinter of the last decade. Horses like Swept Overboard, Trippi, Hook and Ladder, etc.

More Than Ready was 4th in that years Haskell and still got a 106 Beyer. MTR was 0-for-7 lifetime at a mile or further - but ran a couple 106's routing and six of his seven figs were in the 99-to-106 range. More Than Ready was considered like a joke at a mile and beyond because of the record - but put him in with this crop - and his performances are about as good as anything except obviously Eskendarya.

[Port Conway Lane]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

It's proof enough that the Lookin At Lucky's who won the Haskell wouldn't have smoked the Lost Mountain who won the Haskell.




They simply determine how fast a horse ran in said race in relation to the speed of the race track. Sinister Minister was never a good horse - but he would have beat the ever loving piss out of Lookin At Lucky if LAL faced him in his 13 length Grade 1 Blue Grass win over an extreme inside speed track.

Bluegrass Cat was beaten 21+ lengths in that Blue Grass - and he ran 2nd in the Derby and Belmont in his next two starts, before winning the Haskell by 7 lengths and ending his career with a 2nd in the Travers.

Strong Contender was beaten 17+ lengths in that Blue Grass - and he came back and later took the Dwyer by 8 and beat Lawyer Ron in the Super Derby.

Wild Syn - who was pathetic beyond belief - went wire-to-wire from the rail in a different edition of the Blue Grass and two well beaten horses came back and ran 1st and 2nd in the Ky Derby three weeks later. That's Keeneland.

Bellamy Road's 17.5 length Grade 1 win Wood number wasn't wrong either - and unlike Sinister Minister his performance wasn't a fluke caused by a crazy bias. Scrappy T. was 3rd by 18+ and took a Grade 3 at 7/1 next out followed by a 2nd place finish in the Preakness.

If you think Lookin at Lucky wins that Wood Memorial if he was entered that day - you're a total clown.

Resumes that are put together against real nice N1X alw horses like First Dude, or the 0-for-forever Jackson Bend, or tough luck Trappe Shot in his Graded Stakes debut would look a lot better if the figures weren't so weak.

Freaking Milwaukee Brew ran a 110 Beyer when he was 3rd in the Haskell - and he was what - like the 37th best 3yo to race that year?

Ok so back to the list in question. If Phil ranked LAL last on that list and did so along the lines of what you are saying, using the beyer number for that given race as the determining factor of how a horse would "rank" among others, not so much how a horse would rank historically among those same horses, then I have no argument.

Simply place the number next to each horse and leave it at that. Don't bother explaining who ran behind LAL because the number is the determining factor.

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Originally Posted by Port Conway Lane

Simply place the number next to each horse and leave it at that. Don't bother explaining who ran behind LAL because the number is the determining factor.

The horses who ran behind Lookin at Lucky yesterday all sucked - that was obvious going into the race.

Trappe Shot at least had some upside - but he was making his graded stakes debut, had a single route win at the expense of 3 horses, and had a miserable trip yesterday.

First Dude is a VERY nice 1-for-9 horse. His day is coming soon.

Super Saver went Mine That Bird in the Derby - other than that he's lost to Oddysess at Tampa, Line of David at Oaklawn, and was creamed with a perfect trip in the Preakness.

Ice Box is a less talented version of Giacomo.

[philcski]

Originally Posted by Port Conway Lane

Ok so you're using Lost Mountain's 107 beyer as proof of his historic comparison to LAL ? Then I see the pps of a horse who's not even on the list in question. Who by the way looked like a tough customer.

I get that. Some horses are born in the wrong year. But often their measure of talent can be exaggerated because of who they faced just as a horse like
LAL's ability is downgraded because of who he has been beating. There is a median in there somewhere and Beyer numbers aren't the end all in determining how good a horse is. If they were Sinister Minister or Bellamy Road would be household names.

I wouldn't mind seeing Lost Mountain's pps. I bet him in the Derby.

Originally Posted by Port Conway Lane

Ok so back to the list in question. If Phil ranked LAL last on that list and did so along the lines of what you are saying, using the beyer number for that given race as the determining factor of how a horse would "rank" among others, not so much how a horse would rank historically among those same horses, then I have no argument.

Simply place the number next to each horse and leave it at that. Don't bother explaining who ran behind LAL because the number is the determining factor.

No, my critical ranking was not based solely on the Beyer numbers assigned. Let's look at this critically- of the 3yo restricted races, the Haskell would rank 4th behind the Derby, Preakness, and Travers for races "I want to win" (given that the Belmont has become somewhat irrelevant in a non-TC year). It's a serious and important race in the landscape of 3yo racing and a race I happen to love. They draw really good/great fields and important horses, benchmark types. I looked at each of the horses and said "do I want them or LaL in a matchup?"

Rachel Alexandra- RA
Big Brown- BB
Any Given Saturday- AGS
Bluegrass Cat- BC
Roman Ruler- tossup
Lion Heart- LH
Peace Rules- PR
War Emblem- WE
Point Given- PG
Dixie Union- DU
Menifee- Menifee
Coronado's Quest- CQ
Touch Gold- TG
Skip Away- SA
Serena's Song- SS
Holy Bull- HB
Kissin Kris- KK
Technology- tossup
Lost Mountain- tossup
Restless Con- LaL
King Glorious- KG
Forty Niner- FN
Bet Twice- BT

So I came up with 3 tossups, 1 yes, and 19 no's. I'd like to know where you disagree with my assessment (if any.) It's an interesting comparison if nothing else.

Originally Posted by Rupert Pupkin

I would probably rank him a little below average on that list but I certainly wouldn't rank him last.

His performance today surprised me. I thought he was the horse to beat but I thought it was a competitive field. I thought he deserved to be the favorite but I thought he should have been the 5-2 favorite, not the 6-5 favorite. I was totally wrong. He blew them away. He won like a 6-5 shot.

Agree with this.