Personally I think that if you avoid wagering on Polytrack you are making a big mistake. One reason is that there are a lot of unknowns about the surface. Which means that the other players have no advantage on you. If you watch the races closely you may be able to identify trends before the betting public and sharp players do. For instance there was a day at Turfway last week where the track was favoring speed very strongly. The track was also playing much faster in spirnts versus routes the same day. That is powerful info because very few people are aware of the trend. Also traditional sheet numbers are not as accurate on polytrack because there are days where the outside paths are much superior to the rail, therefore giving better numbers to the winners than they should get based upon the old methodology.
The richest people in this world capitalize on chaos and being ahead of the curve. That opportunity clearly presents itself here. Maybe you should temper your bets where you are wagering a smaller % than you usually would, but to put your head in the sand and say that you wont wager on it, and maybe miss some tremendous opportunities, seems a little narrowminded.
BTW- Regarding With a City, the connections of that horse have produced some stunning upsets in the past in big races with horses that never had shown that kind of form and never did again. Also the field was basically an allowance race from which very little has ever emerged out of.
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10-06-2006, 11:39 AM
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