DRF WKND (Hersch): Not Unusual for Filly Champs to Struggle

[Rupert Pupkin]

Originally Posted by Kasept

All I mean is that horses running supremely fast under any condition, as fast as Rachel Alexandra ran last year particularly, are expending tremendous energy whether under wraps or not. Those efforts take a certain toll on a horse and require a certain amount of respective rest to recover. I'm certainly just parroting 'sheet' philosophy here, but I've seen enough evidence of its' accuracy to espouse it. Additionally, I've learned (from Andy and Chuck) that the 'could have won by more' credo is generally a fallacy.

The "could have won by more" credo is usually a fallacy if a horse is being fairly vigorously hand ridden. As I said before, many people make the mistake of thinking a horse was not "all-out" simply because the jock never used the stick. If the horse is being fairly vigorously hand-ridden, the horse is probably all out, even if the jock never used the stick. But if a horse is actually not being asked at all and is actually being restrained, then it is not a fallacy at all.

A race is going to take something out of a horse no matter what. But if a horse is "all-out", the race will take much more out of them than if they win under wraps.

What I'm referring to does not happen all that often. Most 5 length winners are "all-out". There aren't all that many jockeys that gear their horses down. The guy that does it the most consistently is Ramon Dominguez. I often see Ramon win races by 3 lengths that he could have won by a couple of more lengths if he wanted to. Ramon is one of the smartest, if not the smartest riders in the country. He knows how important it is to save something for next time.