Gomez off Lucky...on Dublin

[MaTH716]

Actually I'm excited about it and can't wait to bet him. The horse has had 2 brutal trips his last 2 races. Now he losses arguably one of the top jocks in the sport. I'm thinking people are going to jump off and dismiss him. But I still think he is one of the top horses in this what seems to be very weak class.

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by MaTH716

Actually I'm excited about it and can't wait to bet him. The horse has had 2 brutal trips his last 2 races. Now he losses arguably one of the top jocks in the sport. I'm thinking people are going to jump off and dismiss him. But I still think he is one of the top horses in this what seems to be very weak class.

Do you honestly think the jock change will affect his odds?

Hell, the way Baffert has unfairly maligned Gomez, his odds may drop.

[MaTH716]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

Do you honestly think the jock change will affect his odds?

Hell, the way Baffert has unfairly maligned Gomez, his odds may drop.

I just feel like people are going to dismiss him for various reasons. Especially from the outsider money who only bets the 3 TC races a year. He just doesn't have the feel of a horse who is being mentioned to have a shot. I'm expecting the media to be all over Super Saver (obviously) and whatever newcomer they label as the hot/wise guy horse. I'm probably way off base here, but I just think he might be overlooked in this spot.

[blackthroatedwind]

I just assumed he would be a big second choice.

I agree with the Fat Man. He got a LOT of perfect trips and setups before his last couple of races. Having said that, he could win, but he's not my cup of tea.

[randallscott35]

He's not tactical, he grinds and those horses have lots of trip issues. Full field ahead and Garcia is a down grade. No thanks.

[MaTH716]

Originally Posted by randallscott35

He's not tactical, he grinds and those horses have lots of trip issues. Full field ahead and Garcia is a down grade. No thanks.

I think he's tactical and versatile. I just think he has some extremely poor racing luck. He came to a walk during the Santa Anita Derby and almost held on for second. Obviously he had trouble from the rail in the Derby. Even in the BC he drew the 13 post and was at least 5-6 wide going into the first turn while being wide the enitre way around and just missed by a nose. He did overcome being checked/stedied in the backstretch of the Rebel (I understand that it wasn't a great field, but then again not too many of the races had them either) and go on to win. Agreed Garcia is not in Gomez's class, but could have he done any worse then Gomez in the last two races? Probably not, because most of the trouble was uncontrollable anyway. But I just don't think it's fair to say he needs a perfect trip to win a race. The trouble that he has ran into has been far from minor.
I just think he's a gritty horse that gives his all everytime he goes out and as long as he stays away from the trouble he has found he has a big shot. I'm just hoping that alot of people go to sleep on him.

[randallscott35]

Originally Posted by MaTH716

I think he's tactical and versatile. I just think he has some extremely poor racing luck. He came to a walk during the Santa Anita Derby and almost held on for second. Obviously he had trouble from the rail in the Derby. Even in the BC he drew the 13 post and was at least 5-6 wide going into the first turn while being wide the enitre way around and just missed by a nose. He did overcome being checked/stedied in the backstretch of the Rebel (I understand that it wasn't a great field, but then again not too many of the races had them either) and go on to win. Agreed Garcia is not in Gomez's class, but could have he done any worse then Gomez in the last two races? Probably not, because most of the trouble was uncontrollable anyway. But I just don't think it's fair to say he needs a perfect trip to win a race. The trouble that he has ran into has been far from minor.
I just think he's a gritty horse that gives his all everytime he goes out and as long as he stays away from the trouble he has found he has a big shot. I'm just hoping that alot of people go to sleep on him.

I think Ice Box was gritty. I think LAL quit last time.

[the_fat_man]

Originally Posted by MaTH716

Actually I'm excited about it and can't wait to bet him. The horse has had 2 brutal trips his last 2 races.

This might be true but he'd also gotten a steady diet of very good trip previously. I always thought he was a plug but when he couldn't hold off Setsuko in the SAD, that pretty much confirmed it. He's another one, along with the Derby winner, that needs a perfect trip to win. Then again, with a perfect trip, any number of other horses could probably get it done. So, why do I need this plug at SHORTER odds?