Noble's Promise: Did Willie Cost him at least a placing?

[blackthroatedwind]

Whether he's absolutely right or wrong, why make fun of someone who well may understand race dynamics better than you?

It's hard to argue against the notion that Noble's Promise collapsed the race. It was a poor ride ( there's a shock given the rider ) but it was probably somewhat irrelevent, as he wasn't getting the distance effectively anyway.

It's not all so simple.

[philcski]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

Whether he's absolutely right or wrong, why make fun of someone who well may understand race dynamics better than you?

It's hard to argue against the notion that Noble's Promise collapsed the race. It was a poor ride ( there's a shock given the rider ) but it was probably somewhat irrelevent, as he wasn't getting the distance effectively anyway.

It's not all so simple.

I don't give a f*ck if he understands race dynamics better than me, or if he doesn't. To make an irrational argument like Ice Box getting stopped actually benefited him because he didn't like him before the race completely undermines any other positive thing he has said.

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by philcski

I don't give a f*ck if he understands race dynamics better than me, or if he doesn't. To make an irrational argument like Ice Box getting stopped actually benefited him because he didn't like him before the race completely undermines any other positive thing he has said.

He's obnoxious. So what. At least he has something to say.

[philcski]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

He's obnoxious. So what. At least he has something to say.

Yeah- like telling others they're morons or "not at that level" and operating at a level of hubris approaching that of Napoleon.

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by philcski

Yeah- like telling others they're morons or "not at that level" and operating at a level of hubris approaching that of Napoleon.

We've established that he's abrasive and obnoxious....should I get a Thesaurus and find some more words in order to continue to post in this manner?

He still has something to say.....at least this time.

Your car analogy was bad. I'm not saying I wholly agree with him....but you can do better than that.

[philcski]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

We've established that he's abrasive and obnoxious....should I get a Thesaurus and find some more words in order to continue to post in this manner?

He still has something to say.....at least this time.

Your car analogy was bad. I'm not saying I wholly agree with him....but you can do better than that.

It was sarcasm.

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by philcski

It was sarcasm.

You think it's easy to keep up with this and watch Mad Men?

[the_fat_man]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

He's obnoxious. So what. At least he has something to say.

Andy

It's common knowledge that I respect you more that just about any trip handicapper out there. Consider what I'm offering here. This is very similar to your misread of the Al Khali trip in that race won by Courageous Cat. Horses that find trouble at key points in the race are at an advantage --- especially in cases of sustained runs like this one. This was a flow race and IB was riding the gulf stream.

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by the_fat_man

Andy

It's common knowledge that I respect you more that just about any trip handicapper out there. Consider what I'm offering here. This is very similar to your misread of the Al Khali trip in that race won by Courageous Cat. Horses that find trouble at key points in the race are at an advantage --- especially in cases of sustained runs like this one. This was a flow race and IB was riding the gulf stream.

I understand.

I still think Ice Box ran a winning race, in the sense that if things had gone as well for him as they did for the first and third finishers he would have won.

The bigger question is, then, who actually ran the best race. And, this means for ten furlongs. The problem is, it may not be particularly relevent in the future, due to how unusual this race was.

[miraja2]

Originally Posted by the_fat_man

Horses that find trouble at key points in the race are at an advantage.

This is where you're losing me.
If the horse had simply been walled off for a bit and forced to gradually make his way to the outside (while drafting) without being forced to check, I think I could understand your point. But - to me - that doesn't look like what hapened to Ice Box. Wasn't he flat-out blocked off in the stretch and forced to steady for a moment in order to get around? I'm honestly and sincerely trying to understand your perspective here, but I just don't see how in the world something like that could have helped him.

[blackthroatedwind]

It didn't " help " him, you're right....it couldn't have, but I guess in Fatmanese he's trying make people realize that it's not necessarily cut and dried that it buried him either. It's worth exploring how it changed the race.

It would be great to have many alternate universes and see what would have actually happened under many different scenerios.

[NTamm1215]

If the argument, and I'm sure I'll be wrong, is that a horse who will ultimately attempt to rally into a race that unfolds in a layered scenario (a la most Derbies) runs into trouble as other horses are moving, it enables him to make that "last run" that often works best in said type of race.

Ice Box is almost always going to be a "last mover" type of horse and he's certainly going to need a layered race (pace that backs up, another horse that moves prematurely and/or collapses the race). I guess the only part of this argument that I'm unsure about is how we can say with certainty that he wouldn't have won the damn thing by three lengths had he been able to swing out just inside the 1/4 pole and make one sustained run down the middle. I probably can't be sure it wouldn't have worked by noting that Lookin at Lucky and Make Music For Me attempted basically that and both came up wanting.

NT

[the_fat_man]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

It didn't " help " him, you're right....it couldn't have, but I guess in Fatmanese he's trying make people realize that it's not necessarily cut and dried that it buried him either. It's worth exploring how it changed the race.

It would be great to have many alternate universes and see what would have actually happened under many different scenerios.

A few weeks ago I turned on ATR and heard your comments concerning Looking at Lucky and the Rebel Stakes. Now, unlike Beyer, you don't stutter, and I could've sworn that I heard you almost come flat out and say that LOL got the benefit of the setup because he found trouble. In other words, you understood that by having to check while the others were in a drive, he was able to last move the field. Why is this any different than what I'm claiming for the Derby?

[the_fat_man]

Originally Posted by philcski

I don't give a f*ck if he understands race dynamics better than me, or if he doesn't. To make an irrational argument like Ice Box getting stopped actually benefited him because he didn't like him before the race completely undermines any other positive thing he has said.

Phil

Take a deep breath. Consider for a moment that whether Ice Box ran well or not really meant nothing to me, as I went into the race with doubles to SC and NP. So, when NP fell apart, it didn't matter to me. If I thought the horse ran well after the fact, I'd certainly comment to that effect. But I wouldn't want anything that closed out of this race and I certainly wouldn't want the one that last moved the last movers.

Now, if you take a look at the chart for the race, you'll note that the 3rd last, last, last horse at the 1st 3 calls, ran together from the 3rd to the 4th call, where that made significant gains. At that point, while LaL and MMFM continue on making a slight gain, IB is going sideways. Clearly, he's expending energy while doing so but he's not expending the same amount as the other two. In other words, he gets a BREAK in his run and the chart shows that while the other 2 are gaining, he's losing ground to the winner. (this is between the mile and the stretch call). The stretch call to the wire, LAL backs up, MMFE makes/continues a nominal gain and IB comes on, gaining significantly. So, NP collapses the race, having 1st SS bid, then a whole wave of horses that included PoP (all of which fizzled out except PoP), and, finally, the 3 horses from the rear. So, not only did IB have the benefit of making the last run in the race but he was even able to last move the last movers, as a result of getting a break in the stretch. This horse has no shot in a race where he actually has to do any running on its own. I realize it's hard to grasp what I'm writing.

[philcski]

Originally Posted by the_fat_man

Phil

Take a deep breath. Consider for a moment that whether Ice Box ran well or not really meant nothing to me, as I went into the race with doubles to SC and NP. So, when NP fell apart, it didn't matter to me. If I thought the horse ran well after the fact, I'd certainly comment to that effect. But I wouldn't want anything that closed out of this race and I certainly wouldn't want the one that last moved the last movers.

Now, if you take a look at the chart for the race, you'll note that the 3rd last, last, last horse at the 1st 3 calls, ran together from the 3rd to the 4th call, where that made significant gains. At that point, while LaL and MMFM continue on making a slight gain, IB is going sideways. Clearly, he's expending energy while doing so but he's not expending the same amount as the other two. In other words, he gets a BREAK in his run and the chart shows that while the other 2 are gaining, he's losing ground to the winner. (this is between the mile and the stretch call). The stretch call to the wire, LAL backs up, MMFE makes/continues a nominal gain and IB comes on, gaining significantly. So, NP collapses the race, having 1st SS bid, then a whole wave of horses that included PoP (all of which fizzled out except PoP), and, finally, the 3 horses from the rear. So, not only did IB have the benefit of making the last run in the race but he was even able to last move the last movers, as a result of getting a break in the stretch. This horse has no shot in a race where he actually has to do any running on its own. I realize it's hard to grasp what I'm writing.

I believe I said this before the race. Thanks for recapping for me.

[asudevil]

Regardless of the final trip analysis , I was sick with the finish. I bet Ice Box at 85/1 at Wynn Las Vegas in February. I have to give Haksin credit for that play. After the Fountain of Youth, he was on ATR and said that IB had a wide trip, but finished well despite being 5th. Both he and Byk also loved the horse's apperance back then.

[philcski]

I'm driving down the left lane of a three lane highway going 40 mph with a car in front of me that I'm drafting in behind. There is someone in the right lane next to me going the exact same speed. The car in front of me stops to turn; I slow down to 30 MPH for two seconds and swerve into the center lane and re-accelerate to 40 MPH. Clearly, I am able to benefit from this as I spent less energy over the previous quarter mile because I drafted behind, despite giving up 29 feet of distance to the guy in the right lane in that two second period.

[slotdirt]

Has anybody really ever tried to quantify how much "drafting" actually helps or hurts a horse in so far as racing goes? I understand the concept in car racing and cycling, but never heard anybody aside from TFM really espouse its impact on the running of a horse race. I'm just not sure the dynamics of a horse race are similar enough to, say, a 150 mile stage of the Tour de France or the Aaron's 499 at Talladega, to warrant the comparison.