NFL Draft...

[Cannon Shell]

Originally Posted by Danzig

true..and yet they thought he was a step up from jamarcus-which he is. just surprised that they'd take a 4th rounder for him, two years from now. but i think they'd have taken a couple prizes from cracker jack boxes, they just wanted rid of him.

I was serious about thinking that was pretty good for him. Didnt think they would get anything better than a 6th or 7th round pick for him or simply be forced to release him. There are lots of 4th round picks playing in the NFL that are a whole lot better at their position than Jason Campbell is at his. He really is better suited as a backup though with the raiders he is like Johnny U compared to what was taking snaps under center last year.

[declansharbor]

Originally Posted by Cannon Shell

I was serious about thinking that was pretty good for him. Didnt think they would get anything better than a 6th or 7th round pick for him or simply be forced to release him. There are lots of 4th round picks playing in the NFL that are a whole lot better at their position than Jason Campbell is at his. He really is better suited as a backup though with the raiders he is like Johnny U compared to what was taking snaps under center last year.

I thought the Skins a$$ raped the Raiders on that trade, and they are usually the ones on the other end of the transaction prism. 4th and 5th rounders are not picks to scoff at, they are the ones that the Eagles usually hit on. They are not a 'bag of chips' or whatever Ateam described as giving up for Santonio Holmes.

[ateamstupid]

Originally Posted by declansharbor

I thought the Skins a$$ raped the Raiders on that trade, and they are usually the ones on the other end of the transaction prism. 4th and 5th rounders are not picks to scoff at, they are the ones that the Eagles usually hit on. They are not a 'bag of chips' or whatever Ateam described as giving up for Santonio Holmes.

Give me a f'n break. What % of 4th rounders and above become starters? 25%? 30%? The Jets got a Super Bowl MVP for a guy who probably has a 15-20% chance to start. Draft picks after the 1st round are incredibly overvalued. Pittsburgh selected a guy named Stevenson Sylvester with the Jets' fifth round pick. Santonio Holmes for Stevenson Sylvester. Even if Sylvester becomes a starter, what's the chance he becomes as valuable as Holmes? 5% at best?

This isn't a rip on the Steelers, but spare me the "4th and 5th rounders are gold!" rhetoric.

[Cannon Shell]

Originally Posted by ateamstupid

Give me a f'n break. What % of 4th rounders and above become starters? 25%? 30%? The Jets got a Super Bowl MVP for a guy who probably has a 15-20% chance to start. Draft picks after the 1st round are incredibly overvalued. Pittsburgh selected a guy named Stevenson Sylvester with the Jets' fifth round pick. Santonio Holmes for Stevenson Sylvester. Even if Sylvester becomes a starter, what's the chance he becomes as valuable as Holmes? 5% at best?

This isn't a rip on the Steelers, but spare me the "4th and 5th rounders are gold!" rhetoric.

What is with the Super bowl MVP stuff? Dexter jackson was the Super Bowl MVP too. Holmes is a good WR but no one is confusing him with Jerry Rice

I think you are mistaken about 4th/5th rd draft picks being overvalued. Not only are there a ton of pro bowl level players drafted there (Holmes hasnt been a pro bowl level player btw) but teams get control of the players for a number of years and dont have to pay them much.

List of notable 4th/5th rounders in last 10 years (Pro Bowl selection)

Dante Hall (pb)
Kabeer Gbaja-Biamila (pb)
Shane Lechler (pb)
Rudi Johnson (pb)
Alex Brown (pb)
David Garrard (pb)
Randy McMichael
Scott Fujita
Rocky Bernard
Jonathan Goodwin (pb)
Bradie James
Terrance McGee (pb)
Asante Samuel (pb)
Robert Mathis (pb)
Mike Scifres (pb)
David Diehl (pb)
Dan Koppen (pb)
Shaun Phillips
Jerricho Cotchery
Nathan Vasher (pb)
Stacy Andrews
Jared Allen (pb)
Gibril Wilson
Micheal Turner (pb)
Kyle Orton
Marion Barber (pb)
Jerome Mathis (pb)
Brandon Jacobs
Kerry Rhodes
Darren Sproles
Chris Canty
Trent Cole (pb)
Owen Daniels (pb)
Max Jean-Giles
Jahri Evans (pb)
Leon Washington
Stephen Gostkowski (pb)
Brandon Marshall (pb)
Elvis Dumervil (pb)
Clint Session
Le'Ron McClain (pb)
William Gay
Brent Celek
Johnny Knox (pb)

[ateamstupid]

You listed 44 players. Out of 600+ 4th/5th rounders in the last 10 years. I guess my 25-30% estimate was generous. And yeah, Holmes totally = Dexter Jackson. Should I write 1,200-yard receiver in the prime of his career? Would that make you bristle less?

[Cannon Shell]

Originally Posted by ateamstupid

You listed 44 players. Out of 600+ 4th/5th rounders in the last 10 years. I guess my 25-30% estimate was generous. And yeah, Holmes totally = Dexter Jackson. Should I write 1,200-yard receiver in the prime of his career? Would that make you bristle less?

Yeah 44 players who are probowl or prominent players, I'm sure there were a lot more starters. That is basically a full team. 4th and 5th round picks arent toss aways.

Holmes is a 1 time 1200 yard guy who is getting a signifigant downgrade at QB. Being MVP of the Super Bowl because he made 1 catch hardly qualifies him for All Star status. That being said if he wasnt an off the field risk they probably would have had to give up a 3rd rounder

Of course he aint no Brandon Marshall...

[ateamstupid]

Originally Posted by dalakhani

You really think San Diego has the worst run blocking line in the league? I think LT had a lot to do with the lack of production in the running game.

TJ is about to go over 10k yards this year and has averaged 4 ypg for a career- a career that started with one of the worst teams in the league. I think TJ is more than just a product of the line although I do agree that the Jets line certainly didnt hurt.

Football Outsiders had San Diego at the bottom of the league in numerous run blocking categories. And TJ's career numbers are irrelevant here. The point is last season, he was almost entirely a product of his blockers. If his blocks broke down, he did nothing.

Originally Posted by Cannon Shell

Yeah 44 players who are probowl or prominent players, I'm sure there were a lot more starters. That is basically a full team. 4th and 5th round picks arent toss aways.

Holmes is a 1 time 1200 yard guy who is getting a signifigant downgrade at QB. Being MVP of the Super Bowl because he made 1 catch hardly qualifies him for All Star status. That being said if he wasnt an off the field risk they probably would have had to give up a 3rd rounder

Of course he aint no Brandon Marshall...

That's great. It's still about relative value and likelihood of success. The odds of a guy the Steelers pick at the end of the 5th round being as valuable as Holmes are extremely slim, regardless of your list of 44 productive 4th/5th rounders in 10 years. And yeah, great job with Marshall. The Jets' WR corps still blows the Dolphins' out of the goddamn water.

[dalakhani]

Originally Posted by Cannon Shell

Yeah 44 players who are probowl or prominent players, I'm sure there were a lot more starters. That is basically a full team. 4th and 5th round picks arent toss aways.

Holmes is a 1 time 1200 yard guy who is getting a signifigant downgrade at QB. Being MVP of the Super Bowl because he made 1 catch hardly qualifies him for All Star status. That being said if he wasnt an off the field risk they probably would have had to give up a 3rd rounder

Of course he aint no Brandon Marshall...

Who is? That guy is T.O 2.0

[dalakhani]

Originally Posted by declansharbor

I thought the Skins a$$ raped the Raiders on that trade, and they are usually the ones on the other end of the transaction prism. 4th and 5th rounders are not picks to scoff at, they are the ones that the Eagles usually hit on. They are not a 'bag of chips' or whatever Ateam described as giving up for Santonio Holmes.

I am with Joey on this one. In the Holmes case, it was literally a bag of chips in relationship to what they received. You have to look at the contract situation in this.

Holmes's contract is over after this year. They don't have to pay a signing bonus. There is no big potential cap hit. He is signed for 755k this year, the league minimum for a 5th year player!

755k and a 5th rounder for a 26 year old in his prime for 12 games and the playoffs? Thats not even a bag chips. Thats like a single pringle.

[Cannon Shell]

Originally Posted by dalakhani

755k and a 5th rounder for a 26 year old in his prime for 12 games and the playoffs? Thats not even a bag chips. Thats like a single pringle.

Like that is a given...

[dalakhani]

Originally Posted by Cannon Shell

Like that is a given...

The early schedule is brutal. If they can get to the bye at .500 they will be in great shape.

[Cannon Shell]

Originally Posted by dalakhani

The early schedule is brutal. If they can get to the bye at .500 they will be in great shape.

The Jets were hardly the juggernaut that they are made out to be. They had a nice little run but the league will catch up to fatboys schemes. That offense is still pretty offensive

[dalakhani]

Originally Posted by Cannon Shell

The Jets were hardly the juggernaut that they are made out to be. They had a nice little run but the league will catch up to fatboys schemes. That offense is still pretty offensive

I don't know Chuck. Any way you cut it, that defense is going to be tough to score against. They have speed outside on offense and they have a line that blocks run with any team in the league.

I think they will be good. My only fear for them would be regression at QB. Soph QB's often regress. Even if he did, though, I think you could put a game managing type in there and they would still make the playoffs.