Weekend Beyers: Blind Luck 104; Sidney's 100; AmLion 98

[cmorioles]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

The track at Hawthorne was incredible slow ... I wonder if they cut this race loose to get it where they could make it as slow as they did .. or if they just had virtually every single horse running below form all day long?

The variant was not split. I'm also not sure how you think the track was "incredibly slow".

The winner of the 1st was given a lifetime top in career start 24. It was 6 points higher than any in his last 10.

The winner of the 3rd was given a 61 after recording 54, 65, 67 his last three, 54 most recent.

The winner of the 4th was given a 57 after running seven straight races between 53 and 64.

The winner of the 5th was given a 75 after running his career high, a 74, in his previous race. This was start number 17.

The winner of the 9th was given a 92 after his last 3 of 51, 82, 89. He did come off a layoff and had some nice 100+ back numbers. The runner up will get an 88, a lifetime top in career start number 19.

Again, all used the same variant, including the Illinois Derby.

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Originally Posted by cmorioles

The winner of the 3rd was given a 61 after recording 54, 65, 67 his last three, 54 most recent.

Yeah - and a 74, 70, and 74 in his 3 starts before that.

So, in victory, he was lengths slower than in five of his last 6 races. The 54 was when well beaten on a sloppy sealed track.

Everyone else in that field also went backwards. Some severly.

Originally Posted by cmorioles

The winner of the 4th was given a 57 after running seven straight races between 53 and 64.

Four of his last five races were between 61 and 64 - and his last was a 63. He won by 2+ lengths at 5/2 but still ran a couple lengths worse than normal.

Originally Posted by cmorioles

The winner of the 5th was given a 75 after running his career high, a 74, in his previous race. This was start number 17.

Yes - a 3/1 shot winner improved over his last race by one point when he was beaten a couple lengths at the same class level.

Originally Posted by cmorioles

The winner of the 9th was given a 92 after his last 3 of 51, 82, 89. He did come off a layoff and had some nice 100+ back numbers. The runner up will get an 88, a lifetime top in career start number 19.

Yeah the winner had obviously returned to ok form ... but he also had a four race stretch of 100, 101, 106, and 99 last year. The 9/1 shot who ran 2nd ran 2 points faster than last time .. and a lot of beaten horses made big backward moves.

Originally Posted by cmorioles

Again, all used the same variant, including the Illinois Derby.

It seems like 1 point was shaved off of the ILL Derby... and since it was longer than those other races and involved more running into head-wind .. shouldn't it be the other way if any?

[cmorioles]

Drugs, we can do this all day.

First, you ignored the 1st race.

The third, the horse was dropping from two poor races at 10k to 4k. He is in the hands of a very poor trainer after being claimed 3 back. If you want to believe he ran back to his good races, good luck.

The 4th was a brutal pace for those cheap fillies. Of course they are going to run slower. It was 20 points faster than the speed figure.

In the fifth, it could be possible the horse improved a little more, but did you look at the horses behind him? Also, the pace was about 8 points faster than the final time, and since the winner actually led from the 1/2 call home, the 75 is probably a little better than it looks. Giving him even higher would be unrealistic.

I agree the 9th is the toughest to judge. I think the runner up is the best horse to judge for the figure. He was given a lifetime top, basically a pair up, in his 19th career start while being beaten pretty easily.

As for the general "a lot of beaten horses made big backwards moves"...all I can say is no sh!t, that is why they were beaten. I realize the horses had a headwind coming home, but even after adjusting for this the paces of the routes were honest to fast. By far the slowest was the Illinios Derby in relation to final time. This causes lots of horses to move backwards when they are beaten.

R1: Fast 11
R3: Fast 3
R4: Fast 20
R5: Fast 8
R7: Slow 6
R9: Fast 8

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Originally Posted by cmorioles

Drugs, we can do this all day.

I know.