How a horse improves by 20+ lengths in a month...

[the_fat_man]

DrugS

The horse had a horrendous trip at FG --- a trip that, basically, NO horse would've won with. Then, she gets a perfect trip at GP. Where's the need to quantify? Where's the need to explain why she ran 'faster'? Common sense dictates that she certainly ran significantly faster with the easy trip, as any horse that's run off its feet early, making a huge move early in a race where ALL the chasers collapse, would not come home very fast (certainly not as fast as it would with a better setup).

Figures will become relevant, IMO, when we match the figure with the race type and the type of trip the horse had within that type. Point me to someone doing that.

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Originally Posted by the_fat_man

DrugS

The horse had a horrendous trip at FG --- a trip that, basically, NO horse would've won with. Then, she gets a perfect trip at GP. Where's the need to quantify? Where's the need to explain why she ran 'faster'? Common sense dictates that she certainly ran significantly faster with the easy trip, as any horse that's run off its feet early, making a huge move early in a race where ALL the chasers collapse, would not come home very fast (certainly not as fast as it would with a better setup).

Figures will become relevant, IMO, when we match the figure with the race type and the type of trip the horse had within that type. Point me to someone doing that.

You have an obsession with trying to point out that knowing how fast a horse runs in a race from start to finish is worthless information.

I'm not even sure what you consider to be non worthless info other than the timing jocks give in their rides.

Tell me how you define what you call a wipeout?

[the_fat_man]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

I'm not even sure what you consider to be non worthless info other than the timing jocks give in their rides.

Tell me how you define what you call a wipeout?

If you get on a track bike and head over to the your local velodrome, or just to your local park and ride with the roadies, you'll realize that timing of moves is, essentially, what it's all about. Now, since Dominguez has shown that horses can be ridden like track bikes, not the way that the in-the-know types insist they should be ridden, it follows that timing is the key factor. Watch just about any race at GG (or WO, etc.) and explain to me how numbers matter when all these jocks do is collapse races. Horses that moved prematurely one week, come back to win the other with a better timed ride. If I have a way of identifying race types and what moves within them were advantageous or disadvantageous AND how a given horse runs within these types, I have a nice alternative to figures. I can see why a horse ran well or poorly, when a horse is coming into form, and, more importantly, whether a horse can run AGAINST its setup. Telling me a horse runs well late, for example, given its pace figure, is basically worthless. This is because you're not telling me whether the horse can close against the grain and not just in races that fall apart.

As for wipeouts, these are races where all the others in the race are retreating, in terms of lengths behind, relative to the winner. This is as good as it gets. Of course, most wipeouts are the result of perfect trips.

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

One thing turned me off in a big way about DMC's performance. She finished 13 lengths behind the horse who set the too fast to believe pace. Albeit the pacesetter had far superior tactical position.

That last out pace setter just won the Gr 2 stakes at FG breaking from the rail a few minutes ago.

She went from 5/1 with 5 MTP to paying just $7.80

The Fat Man will note that both horses recieved nicely timed rides from just behind the lead in their Grade 2 wins ... instead of being used hard to score wicked fast pace figures.

[the_fat_man]

Here you go.

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Originally Posted by the_fat_man

Here you go.

If you want to make The Fat Charts better .. instead of using a colored box to represent each horse and a raw 1/4 mile clocking between each call .. use a colored number of the pace figure each horse earns between each call to represent each horse.

It might take a little more time at first - but once you get it rolling it will be sweet and a great tool to use.

[dalakhani]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

That last out pace setter just won the Gr 2 stakes at FG breaking from the rail a few minutes ago.

She went from 5/1 with 5 MTP to paying just $7.80

The Fat Man will note that both horses recieved nicely timed rides from just behind the lead in their Grade 2 wins ... instead of being used hard to score wicked fast pace figures.

I wish I would have read this thread before I bet. I took the Pletcher (post 11!) along with Champagne d oro and jody slew in a box. That Champagne d oro ran a really good race although the pace was slow. I saw her break her maiden last year at del mar and bet her back just because she looked to be controlling speed.

I would certainly bet her back again. Thoughts?

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Originally Posted by dalakhani

I wish I would have read this thread before I bet. I took the Pletcher (post 11!) along with Champagne d oro and jody slew in a box. That Champagne d oro ran a really good race although the pace was slow. I saw her break her maiden last year at del mar and bet her back just because she looked to be controlling speed.

I would certainly bet her back again. Thoughts?

The 91 Beyer figure from Champagne D' Oro's last race - her lone dirt race - was better than any number anyone in the field had ever run.

That figure came in a 6f MSW race - which she only won by a nose - which is why you got that 12/1 price on her.

I didn't think post 10 would be as big of an issue for her as with a normal horse because of how fast she is .. she ran a pace fig of 103 for a 1/4 and 101 for a half in the 6f race... that speed helps get some inside position without having to be used up to do so.

I think she proved today that she can stay 8.5 furlongs...but obviously the value won't be there next time like it was today... because in the eyes of a lot of bettors she will have answered the class and distance question with this race.

[the_fat_man]

I think that if the 4 and the 11 don't keep Albarado pinned inside until they enter, he bids even more prematurely and collapses the race. And rather than 1-2, they go 3-4. At it was, he still almost managed to blow the race and put his horse and CD under undue extra pressure.

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Stay Put (10/1 on the ML) is a classic example of a horse like Ice Box that has slow numbers - but earned them with very unfavorable setups and figures to get a great setup tomorrow. He just doesn't have a race anywhere on his form that tells me for sure that he can win if he gets things his way like he figures to.

Here are the pace figures for the Silverbulletday and Risen Star:

Silverbulletday: 1/4: 106 1/2: 102 3/4: 108 Final: 86
Risen Star: 1/4: 76 1/2: 77 3/4: 85 Final: 94


Obviously the most striking thing is how supersonic fast the Silverbulletday was for 6fs and how it totally fell apart in the final 2.5fs.

Devil May Care was denied the lead after 6f in the SBD - but would have been loose on a 8 length lead in the Risen Star .. and that's not even factoring in that she broke a step slow and was caught 5w, 3w on the turns. She could have been 12 in front with just 2.5fs to go before stopping to a virtual walk in the stretch.

One-run closers like Stay Put and Ron The Greek have no chance in a race when the speed horses are full of run late ... just as Devil May Care and Quiet Temper had no chance of seeing out 8.5fs when they're going way too damn fast in the opposite of the extreme type race shape.