Odysseus pre-Derby start at KEE or OP

[blackthroatedwind]

I agree they have to improve but I was impressed with how Odysseus was able to regather himself despite ultimately seeming to have been ridden in a manner against the way he may be most effective. I bet he is a better one run type from farther back in the pack, and not a grinder, and if he gets a fair pace ( not saying he needs a collapse scenerio ), and is able to drop back early, he may be much more effective.

He also probably got the ride he did because they felt Super Saver was the one to beat, and didn't want him to get an easy lead, which is all reasonable thinking, but you ultimately have dance with proverbial girl that got you there, and in the future hopefully he will be farther from the lead early.

[NTamm1215]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

I agree they have to improve but I was impressed with how Odysseus was able to regather himself despite ultimately seeming to have been ridden in a manner against the way he may be most effective. I bet he is a better one run type from farther back in the pack, and not a grinder, and if he gets a fair pace ( not saying he needs a collapse scenerio ), and is able to drop back early, he may be much more effective.

He also probably got the ride he did because they felt Super Saver was the one to beat, and didn't want him to get an easy lead, which is all reasonable thinking, but you ultimately have dance with proverbial girl that got you there, and in the future hopefully he will be farther from the lead early.

A tactical change could certainly be helpful as he's made it clear he can finish when the timing/opportunity is right. After watching the TB Derby too many times I just keep coming to the conclusion that the race had fallen on it's head at the eighth pole and Schoolyard Dreams, Super Saver, and the huge longshot on the outside were in neutral. That being said, Odysseus' move was far from conventional.

My hope for Odysseus, from a wagering standpoint, is that he starts to make the move forward we know he has to make in the Wood Memorial but still loses and then be in position to assert himself on May 1. I don't consider him a horse with no or even poor chances right now by any means, just one with inconclusive credentials.

NT

[blackthroatedwind]

I completely agree that his credentials are inconclusive at best. I also pretty much agree with the rest.

Odysseus is the only one from the TB Derby that interests me in the least. Schoolyard Dreams is a nice horse but I doubt he can be good enough to be competitive in the bigger races.

[justindew]

I'm a little surprised by the lack of respect that Super Saver is getting. Usually horses who win those CD fall juvy races are exposed in the spring, but considering it was his first start back, I thought his TBD effort was solid.

[slotdirt]

I would agree that Odysseus merits a second look out of that TBD race, but I can't say I hold much hope for either Schoolyard Dreams or Super Saver. I still think Uptowncharlybrown has some potential, but had a brutal trip and will instead be pointed to the Dwyer.

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by slotdirt

I would agree that Odysseus merits a second look out of that TBD race, but I can't say I hold much hope for either Schoolyard Dreams or Super Saver. I still think Uptowncharlybrown has some potential, but had a brutal trip and will instead be pointed to the Dwyer.

You'll have to expound on Uptowncharlybrown's brutal trip. I sure didn't see it.

Personally I don't understand what anyone sees in this horse. I never did.

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by justindew

I'm a little surprised by the lack of respect that Super Saver is getting. Usually horses who win those CD fall juvy races are exposed in the spring, but considering it was his first start back, I thought his TBD effort was solid.

He is OK....but he hardly has a running style that figures to enhance his chances in the Derby.

[justindew]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

He is OK....but he hardly has a running style that figures to enhance his chances in the Derby.

If Drosselmeyer makes the Derby field, it would not surpise me to see WinStar point Super Saver to the Preakness. Late start, Rule, etc.

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by justindew

If Drosselmeyer makes the Derby field, it would not surpise me to see WinStar point Super Saver to the Preakness. Late start, Rule, etc.

Drosselmeyer? Stop making me laugh.

[RolloTomasi]

Originally Posted by justindew

I'm a little surprised by the lack of respect that Super Saver is getting. Usually horses who win those CD fall juvy races are exposed in the spring, but considering it was his first start back, I thought his TBD effort was solid.

Actually, as far as the Kentucky Jockey Club goes, it is one of the most productive 2yo races for Derby preps (though not necessarily on Derby Day itself). In the last 15 years:

95: Ide-won Southwest, Rebel, retired prior to AK Derby
Editor's Note- placed FL Derby, Blue Grass, Preakness, won Belmont

96: Concerto- won Jim Beam, Battaglia, Tesio, Whirlaway

97: Cape Town- won FL Derby, Holy Bull, placed Blue Grass
Time Limit- won Hutcheson, Spectacular Bid, placed Risen Star,
broke down Jim Beam
Real Quiet- placed SA Derby, San Felipe, won KY Derby, Preakness,
placed Belmont

98: Exploit- won San Vincente, injured March
Vicar- won FOY, FL Derby, placed Blue Grass
Grits N Hard Toast- won Holy Bull

99: Captain Steve- placed SA Derby, LA Derby, Santa Catalina
Mighty- won LA Derby, placed Risen Star, Le Comte

00: Dollar Bill- won Risen Star, placed Blue Grass

01: Repent- won LA Derby, Risen Star, placed Illinois Derby
Request For Parole- won Battaglia, placed Jim Beam

03: The Cliff's Edge- won Blue Grass, placed FL Derby, Sam Davis

06: Any Given Saturday- won Sam Davis, placed TB Derby, Wood
Dominican- won Blue Grass, Rushaway

08: Capt. Candyman Can- won Hutcheson, Bay Shore

[justindew]

Originally Posted by RolloTomasi

Actually, as far as the Kentucky Jockey Club goes, it is one of the most productive 2yo races for Derby preps (though not necessarily on Derby Day itself). In the last 15 years:

95: Ide-won Southwest, Rebel, retired prior to AK Derby
Editor's Note- placed FL Derby, Blue Grass, Preakness, won Belmont

96: Concerto- won Jim Beam, Battaglia, Tesio, Whirlaway

97: Cape Town- won FL Derby, Holy Bull, placed Blue Grass
Time Limit- won Hutcheson, Spectacular Bid, placed Risen Star,
broke down Jim Beam
Real Quiet- placed SA Derby, San Felipe, won KY Derby, Preakness,
placed Belmont

98: Exploit- won San Vincente, injured March
Vicar- won FOY, FL Derby, placed Blue Grass
Grits N Hard Toast- won Holy Bull

99: Captain Steve- placed SA Derby, LA Derby, Santa Catalina
Mighty- won LA Derby, placed Risen Star, Le Comte

00: Dollar Bill- won Risen Star, placed Blue Grass

01: Repent- won LA Derby, Risen Star, placed Illinois Derby
Request For Parole- won Battaglia, placed Jim Beam

03: The Cliff's Edge- won Blue Grass, placed FL Derby, Sam Davis

06: Any Given Saturday- won Sam Davis, placed TB Derby, Wood
Dominican- won Blue Grass, Rushaway

08: Capt. Candyman Can- won Hutcheson, Bay Shore

Good stuff. But it seems to me that any horse who wins going two turns at CD in the fall, be it in a stakes race or allowance or even MSW, instantly becomes a Derby candidate. And they seldom live up to expectations.

And I'm not counting Street Sense in this because that was the BC and the BC doesn't count as a fall race at CD, even though it was that year.

[MisterB]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

I completely agree that his credentials are inconclusive at best. I also pretty much agree with the rest.

Odysseus is the only one from the TB Derby that interests me in the least. Schoolyard Dreams is a nice horse but I doubt he can be good enough to be competitive in the bigger races.

I thought Odysseus was pointing more to the Ark D or Toyota BG. I know they toyed with the Wood, and even training up to derby (which I think is a toss if they do that). Still Green, but coming around. Hate to see him get his head handed to him in NY.

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by MisterB

I thought Odysseus was pointing more to the Ark D or Toyota BG. I know they toyed with the Wood, and even training up to derby (which I think is a toss if they do that). Still Green, but coming around. Hate to see him get his head handed to him in NY.

I don't understand much of this. If he " gets his head handed to him " in the Wood then I guess he's not good enough so I guess that helps people from losing money on him in the Derby.

[blackthroatedwind]

I just watched the Tampa Bay Derby again....

Uptowncharlybrown had a very easy trip and wasn't good enough. Every horse that finished ahead of him had a significantly tougher trip.

[Linny]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

I just watched the Tampa Bay Derby again....

Uptowncharlybrown had a very easy trip and wasn't good enough. Every horse that finished ahead of him had a significantly tougher trip.

His trip was easy but I have no idea why they put blinkers on. He was a nice closer suddenly sitting in a part of the race he's not used to. I agree, and think that he probably is better suited to some of the minor stakes at Calder this summer than the TC.

Odysseus will need to move up but he's now had the "tough race" that I llike to see a horse have before he gets to the Derby. He'll need to be sharp to take on Eskendereya.

[MisterB]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

I don't understand much of this. If he " gets his head handed to him " in the Wood then I guess he's not good enough so I guess that helps people from losing money on him in the Derby.

I look at as a more of an expience thing, and maybe a easier field. Plus it's a million. If he can keep his winning ways, mentally that's better than getting clobbered. But your right, if he runs like crap in NY (if they go there) better for the betting public to toss.

[Indian Charlie]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

I agree they have to improve but I was impressed with how Odysseus was able to regather himself despite ultimately seeming to have been ridden in a manner against the way he may be most effective. I bet he is a better one run type from farther back in the pack, and not a grinder, and if he gets a fair pace ( not saying he needs a collapse scenerio ), and is able to drop back early, he may be much more effective.

He also probably got the ride he did because they felt Super Saver was the one to beat, and didn't want him to get an easy lead, which is all reasonable thinking, but you ultimately have dance with proverbial girl that got you there, and in the future hopefully he will be farther from the lead early.

His allowance win he was hard ridden pretty early in the race. He was in a drive for the greater portion of the race in fact.

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by Indian Charlie

His allowance win he was hard ridden pretty early in the race. He was in a drive for the greater portion of the race in fact.

I guess it's time to get him to relax.