Yo BO we need jobs

[hi_im_god]

Originally Posted by randallscott35

Unemployment, or the U-6 number is over 17% right now and probably even higher than that if you consider people who have fallen off the rolls. Puhleeze, you were the same clown in my tour de force econ thread who called me a gold bug 3 years ago.

good memory. i officially apologize. you're much deeper than i gave you credit for in that off the cuff shallow comment.

if you want to compare apples to apples we can discuss discouraged worker's and include them in whatever stats you want.

do you think unemployment (10% or 17%, your choice) would be higher, the same, or lower, had there not been massive government intervention in 2008/2009?

[randallscott35]

Originally Posted by hi_im_god

good memory. i officially apologize. you're much deeper than i gave you credit for in that off the cuff shallow comment.

if you want to compare apples to apples we can discuss discouraged worker's and include them in whatever stats you want.

do you think unemployment (10% or 17%, your choice) would be higher, the same, or lower, had there not been massive government intervention in 2008/2009?

Maybe, but I guess where I am is that the assumption that we have stopped getting worse in terms of employment is an assumption I'm not willing to make....I sure hope so. I see a lot of people really hurting but the state issues are just beginning, not ending.

[hi_im_god]

Originally Posted by randallscott35

Maybe, but I guess where I am is that the assumption that we have stopped getting worse in terms of employment is an assumption I'm not willing to make....I sure hope so. I see a lot of people really hurting but the state issues are just beginning, not ending.

i agree. i think we're very lucky if this is a "u" shaped recession with a very long bottom and not a double dip with far worse to come.

which is why i think stimulus is still the better of the bad options now.

[Cannon Shell]

Originally Posted by hi_im_god

i agree. i think we're very lucky if this is a "u" shaped recession with a very long bottom and not a double dip with far worse to come.

which is why i think stimulus is still the better of the bad options now.

The problem with the first stimulus was there wasnt much actual stimulus in it. There were much better ways to spend that money that simply werent going to be popular with the party in charge. The idea for the stimulus should have been to help private business recover as opposed to replacing it. The idea that there would be 25% unemployment without it is laughable.

[dalakhani]

Originally Posted by Cannon Shell

The problem with the first stimulus was there wasnt much actual stimulus in it. There were much better ways to spend that money that simply werent going to be popular with the party in charge. The idea for the stimulus should have been to help private business recover as opposed to replacing it. The idea that there would be 25% unemployment without it is laughable.

Without the stimulus or without ANY government intervention? Without the bailouts, there is little doubt we would be living in a second great depression right now.

[Cannon Shell]

Originally Posted by dalakhani

Without the stimulus or without ANY government intervention? Without the bailouts, there is little doubt we would be living in a second great depression right now.

the bailouts were a completely seperate deal. No one is arguing that the Govt should have done something but this idea that because we arent in a depression the stimulus was a rousing success is just wrong. Assuming that the stimulus package headed off 25% unemployment or a depression is pure conjecture and when Probama's like Riot keep pointing out over and over again that the majority of the stimulus hasnt even been doled out yet the stimulus as the depression buster theory looks even weaker.

[Riot]

Originally Posted by Cannon Shell

the bailouts were a completely seperate deal. No one is arguing that the Govt should have done something but this idea that because we arent in a depression the stimulus was a rousing success is just wrong. Assuming that the stimulus package headed off 25% unemployment or a depression is pure conjecture and when Probama's like Riot keep pointing out over and over again that the majority of the stimulus hasnt even been doled out yet the stimulus as the depression buster theory looks even weaker.

You keep repeating that, and laughing at those that say otherwise - do you have a couple of respected economists that agree with your assessment? I haven't yet seen any. Do share.

(Who said the stimulus headed off 25% unemployment?) Edit ... never mind ....

[hi_im_god]

Originally Posted by Cannon Shell

The problem with the first stimulus was there wasnt much actual stimulus in it. There were much better ways to spend that money that simply werent going to be popular with the party in charge. The idea for the stimulus should have been to help private business recover as opposed to replacing it. The idea that there would be 25% unemployment without it is laughable.

i'm just using the great depression as a model for my 25%. that was the last example i could think of that was more than a thought experiment.

it's the only one i could find where the argument that government as the last stand when the market fails was actually tested until the fall of 2008.

if you think the market never fails, this example won't matter.

[Cannon Shell]

Originally Posted by hi_im_god

i'm just using the great depression as a model for my 25%. that was the last example i could think of that was more than a thought experiment.

it's the only one i could find where the argument that government as the last stand when the market fails was actually tested until the fall of 2008.

if you think the market never fails, this example won't matter.

It may be the last example but that doesnt mean it is a valid example

[dalakhani]

Originally Posted by hi_im_god

i agree. i think we're very lucky if this is a "u" shaped recession with a very long bottom and not a double dip with far worse to come.

which is why i think stimulus is still the better of the bad options now.

We have a lot of pain left to come.