Dubai Carnival 2010 Discussion

[PatCummings]

I love the Saudis tomorrow in the Guineas trial. From what I've been told, the trial races went to the pace horses, but that could've been for a number of reasons. Pace might hold better, but I know Dettori thinks being off the pace will be best.

Betting - yeah, I'll be treading lightly for sure until we see how it plays out.

If De Kock's filly Raihana wins the 1000 Guineas prep, I will be slightly surprised. Comparing her form and times and the like to others he's had in similar situations, well, there just isn't much comparison (in my opinion). The Saudis have recency edge and quality times when comparing to other Saudi races over the same trips at those distances (yes, I've spent too much time looking at Saudi race results).

That's my take.

Originally Posted by NoChanceToDance

Pat,

Do you think the new Tapeta surface will play to the strengths of horse that like to race up with the pace? I'm going to give it a watching brief as far as parting with cash is concerned for the first meeting maybe the second, too.

I'm concerned that during the first 2/3 days of racing, the pace horses will be favoured quite considerably. Now when I say 'pace horses' I don't really mean horses that are likely to go off too fast, more meaning horses that will sit just behind the pace. I'm going to be fearing horses, who are likely to get an easy lead and are able to dictate their own pace.

Hold up horses could struggle to make up the ground on the new surface. The track is "similar" to Santa Anita with a shorter straight, and hold up horses might need to start their runs sooner than expected, which might catch a few out.

Mike De Kock has gone on record saying that his filly in the 1,000 Guineas trial is his best younger filly and a cut above the filly that was a champion 2yo last year. His main aim for her is the UAE Derby, and if that's the case, she ought to be winning tomorrow if she is fit enough.