Early Breeders' Cup Projections...

[King Glorious]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

I never said she was going to hit the board.I just said IMO she has a better chance to win the mile than the other race.

I am very curious to see how this weekend's race at Ascot plays out. Obviously George Washington was tremendous in the English Guinees ( however the hell you spell it ) but his subsequent injury and performances ( albeit he hasn't had the best of trips ) have left something to be desired. If he runs a big one this weekend I too think he will be very tough in the BC Mile but we'll have to wait and see. I am unfamiliar with Librettist and will have to go to Racing Post and find out more about him. However, it is not considered a strong year for Euro milers at this point. Aragorn does seem very talented and at this point I can't say Gorella is a better horse. However, I don't think this year's race has to be as tough as you are indicating and a healthy Artie Schiller is a better horse than you give him credit for. He hasn't been right all year and I would hope you are not basing your opinion on him from his 2006 form. Plus, he got a perfect trip in the BC Mile last year.

Regardless, I doubt she will be effective at 1 3/8 and I don't see how she can be expected to beat Ouiji Board there anyway. That one has been successfully knocking heads this year against some of the best horses in the world. Her form was suspect last year having just come back from an injury and one effort against absolute nobodies.

U said u are waiting to see how the Queen Elizabeth plays out. Let me tell u that this race is a very good barometer for the BC Mile........for a different reason. The winners of this race have failed miserably in the BC Mile since the start of the BC series. Here are the QE winners and how they have fared in the Mile:

1985-Shadeed..4th @ 5/1(moved to 3rd via DQ)
1987-Milligram....13th @ 7/1
1988-Warning.....11th @ 9/5
1989-Zilzal.........6th @ 1/1
1990-Markofdistinction......7th @ 7/1
1993-Bigstone.......6th @ 12/1
1996-Mark of Esteem....7th @ 6/5 (part of an entry)
1998-Desert Prince.....14th @ 3/1

Interestingly, this race is similar to the Arc in that while no winners of either of these two races have gone on to win a BC race, quite a few of the losers have come over to win or run very well here. Among the QE losers to rebound and win the Mile are Miesque (1987), Barathea (1994), and Ridgewood Pearl (1995).

I have noticed another trend lately. Because of the makeup of Ascot's course, a mile there is not a typical mile. Whereas in most miles, speed is key, at Ascot, stamina is more coveted. Look at some of the prominent QE finishers over the past six seasons:

Dubai Millennium-1st 1999
Giant's Causeway-2nd 2000
Hawk Wing-2nd 2002
Falbrav-1st 2003
Rakti-1st 2004
Starcraft-1st 2005

All of those horses named were adept at running 8f but were seemingly better, at least in my opinion, at distances closer to 10f.

If I were looking for an angle to use from this race, it would be to bring the winner over here to run in the Classic and an also-ran to run and do pretty well in the Mile.