10/24: Belmont; Keeneland ($106k C/O) - $254k C/O into Sunday

[Kasept]

Kooky Keeneland displayed its' quirky nature Friday, when after the first half of the P6, I was actually believing I had a serious shot to take down the sequence. Subsequently was skunked the rest of the way, without really coming close to a winner in the 7th-9th! First half P3 paid $105 though to help defray expenses and keep the day's losses fairly reasonable. Kiaran McLaughlin swept the pair of Valley View divisions with bonus mutuels on both Bluegrass Princess and Eye of Taurus. Hope you did OK as we all get yet another shot at the sextet today! Belmont arrives at closing weekend today with the New York Bred Showcase today, affectionately monikered the 'Muskrat Ramble' years ago, a reference that as a Kid Ory/Louis Armstrong fan, always make me laugh...


BELMONT PARK


POST-SCRATCHES


6th: 16th Maid of the Mist-NYB, 2yo-F, 1m (G/S, P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #2 Minerologist 1-1 WON
Best Value: #4 Valuable Lady 8-1 7th
Next Best: #9 Embrace Change 10-1 2nd
Super Add: #6 Sugar Trade 9-2 5th


7th: 16th Sleepy Hollow-NYB, 2yo, 1m (P4, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #10 Ibboyee 5-2 4th
Best Value: #5 City Trooper 8-1 2nd
Next Best: #7 Make Note 9-2 3rd
Exotics Use: #6 Persian Ruler 20-1 9th


8th: 31st Iroquois-NYB, F&M-3+, 7f (P3, DD, Super)

Best Value: #2 My Dinah 12-1 2nd
Most Likely: #11 Silvercup Baby 10-1 11th
Next Best: #6 Sweet Lorena 6-1 4th
Super Add: #3 Doremifasollatido 5-1 10th


9th: 32nd Hudson-NYB, 3+, 6f (DD, Super)

Most Likely: #1 Driven by Success 8-5 WON
Best Value: #4 Legal Consent 8-1 2nd
Next Best: #11 Law Enforcement 3-1 10th
Super Add: #2 Smokin Hero 12-1 6th


10th: 34th Empire Classic-NYB, 3+, 9f (Super)

Best Value: #2 Slevin 6-1 6th
Most Likely: #5 Haynesfield 4-1 WON
Next Best: #6 Future Prospect 8-5 10th
Super Add: #11 Naughty New Yorker 15-1 5th

.10 SUPER SPOT PLAY: 2-5 with 2-5-6 with 1-2-3-5-6-11 with 1-2-3-4-5-6-9-10-11-12 (2x2x4x7 = 112 x .10 = $11.20)


<$75 P4 Play:

7: 5-10
8: 2-6-11
9: 1-2-4-11
10: 2-5-6

2x3x4x3 = $72



KEENELAND


POST-SCRATCHES


5th: ALW/N1X, 2yo, 1m-T (P6, P3, DD, Super)

Note that top tabs here (#'s 3, 7) can flatter PP running line mates (#'s 1, 5, 6) later in the 7th..

Best Value: #3 Lost Aptitude 6-1 3rd
Most Likely: #7 Exhi 7-2 6th
Next Best: #2 Our Douglas 4-1 2nd
Super Add: #9 Marathon Moon 10-1 9th


6th: S/ALW, 2yo, 6.5f (P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #8 Workin for Hops 8-5 2nd
Next Best: #5 Perfect Drive 7-2 WON
Best Value: #10 Horst 8-1 3rd
Super Add: #2 Canook 8-1 4th


7th: MSW, 2yo, 9f (P4, P3, DD, Super)

Deep and difficult group with several in range of each other and surface switches to consider. Note that Friday's similar 9f heat saw Protesting, the Phipps-A.P. Indy, run off and win..

Most Likely: #2 Heart Butte 6-1 WON
Next Best: #4 Psychic Income 5-1 4th
Best Value: #9 Incredibly Gifted 15-1 7th
Super Add: #6 Drosselmeyer 9-2 2nd


8th: ALW/C, 3+, 1m-T (P3, DD, Super)

Another well-bunch set.. Tough..

Most Likely: #3 Pick Six 7-2 3rd
Best Value: #10 Rahystrada 15-1 WON
Next Best: #8 Antrim County 8-1 7th
Super Add: #5 Wise River 12-1 6th


9th: 11th Raven Run (G2), 3yo-F, 7f (DD, Super)

Thoroughly wide open.. No bad stabs here with most needing to answer synthetic surface question..

Most Likely: #8 Flashing 3-1 12th
Best Value: #3 Satans Quick Chic 30-1 WON
Next Best: #13 Strike the Bell 20-1 9th
Super Add: #1 Best Lass 5-1 6th


10th: ALW/N2X, F&M-3+, 9f-T (Super, Super High 5)

Terrific race..

Most Likely: #11 Grassy Nellie 9-2 3rd
Next Best: #1 Changing Skies 7-2 2nd
Best Value: #8 Magical Theater 8-1 6th
Exotics Use: #5 Prytania 5-1 4th
High 5 Play: #2 Striking Dancer 4-1 WON


<$200 P6 Play:

5: 3-7
6: 5-8
7: 2-4
8: 3-5-8-10
9: 8
10: 1-8-11

2x2x2x4x1x3 = 96 x $2 = $192


<$75 P4 Play:

7: 2-4-9
8: 3-5-8-10
9: 3-8-13
10: 1-5-8-11

3x4x3x4 = 144 x .50 = $72


Good luck!
Steve

[Buckpasser]

Race 4 and Race 5 off the Turf

[docicu3]

Originally Posted by Buckpasser

Race 4 and Race 5 off the Turf

At Belmont Buck.....

[Buckpasser]

Originally Posted by docicu3

At Belmont Buck.....

Right....Thanks

[Kasept]

KEE SCR/CHG'S:
http://www.keeneland.com/racing/List...lItemsalt.aspx

Saturday, October 24, 2009 10:00 AM
The Polytrack is fast
The Turf Course is yielding

5th Race
#4--Flatter Than Me--SCRATCH

6th Race
#1--Lon's Honor (LA) Lasix Adjunct
#6--Zavill--SCRATCH
#9--Mamoose--SCRATCH

7th Race
#7--Let's Do It--SCRATCH
#8--Gold Medallion--SCRATCH
#12--Magic Bullet--SCRATCH

8th Race
#2--Fort Prado--SCRATCH
#4--Timeless Fashion--SCRATCH
#6--Suyeta--SCRATCH
#11--Stratham--SCRATCH

9th Race -- Lexus Raven Run (G2)
As of 11:35 a.m.:
#15AE--Saucey Evening--SCRATCH
#16AE--Devil by Design--SCRATCH

10th Race
#11--Grassy Nellie---Jockey change to Corey Lanerie
#12--Stealin' Kisses--SCRATCH
#13AE--Gone Theatrical--Jockey change to Chris Emigh
#14AE--Mega--SCRATCH

[Kasept]

http://www.equibase.com/premium/changes/BEL-changes.asp

Weather: (Morning) RAIN 64 (Post)
Track: MUDDY
Turf: OFF



6TH

8 Spirit of Rose Early


7TH

2 Power Blast Early


8TH

1 Raffie's Treasure Early
13 Mother Russia Early


10TH

9 Dr. V's Magic Early

[ateamstupid]

Steve, I'd like to hear your opinion: Tall Poppi didn't interfere with anyone per se in Belmont's 4th, but he drifted out about 6 or 7 paths in deep stretch. Do you think there at least should've been an inquiry? I mean IMO it shouldn't be OK to drift all over the track even if you don't get in anyone specific's way.

wow a $786 P3 at keeneland with 4 horses to hit the P4, good luck steve.

Just checked and a $1 parlay of the winners in the 7-9 would have paid $1873...the pk3 pool was 35K and was a big underlay. I didnt have either as I played in race verticals.

[ateamstupid]

Originally Posted by SundaySilence

Just checked and a $1 parlay of the winners in the 7-9 would have paid $1873...the pk3 pool was 35K and was a big underlay. I didnt have either as I played in race verticals.

I don't think Satan's Quick Chick was anything close to 23-1 in the Pick 3 pools. She was the fourth choice in the double I believe and just got lost in the win wagering.

[zippyneedsawin]

Originally Posted by ateamstupid

I don't think Satan's Quick Chick was anything close to 23-1 in the Pick 3 pools. She was the fourth choice in the double I believe and just got lost in the win wagering.

hard to believe she was 4th choice in the double considering she was 20-1 morning line and went off higher than that at posttime... a lot of bettors must have read steve's picks going into keeneland today!

[MISTERGEE]

I hope steve hit the late pic 4 at keen
50 center paid over $3000

[geeker2]

Steve...a big thanks! I played your pick 4 and threw in the 2 (your high 5 play) in the last leg - bingo 3 G's ...just got home fired up youbet and holy sh^t!

You still D'man!

[Kasept]

Originally Posted by geeker2

Steve...a big thanks! I played your pick 4 and threw in the 2 (your high 5 play) in the last leg - bingo 3 G's ...just got home fired up youbet and holy sh^t!

You still D'man!

Geeker..

That's terrific! Congrats... Should set you up well for Cup wagering. I hope more people added Striking Dancer or got some of the $32 or $48 winners or the P3's or something! Keeneland has been pretty entertaining.