How good is Lava Man?

[blackthroatedwind]

Don't demean my like of Pine Island because, as you put it, " I'm a Shug fan ". Yeah, he's a great trainer, who specializes in improving and getting the most out of horses. However, he has run plenty of horses I didn't particularly like in the past, Smuggler for instance, and I don't bet on horses because I have an affinity for certain trainers. I root for horses my friends train, though I don't know Shug at all, but I only bet them if I like their chances.

I agree with your assessment of what makes Happy Ticket a " freak " and realized as much when I asked the question. I happen to hate the term, probably mostly because it is generally misused, though I can't fault your assessment of Happy Ticket in those terms.

As for speed figures, they are at best a small part of my handicapping, but I do value the Beyer speed figures. I pay enough attention to the game that I can make my own assessments as to whether or not I agree with them in particular situations. If you like the Ragozin numbers that is certainly your perogative, I have however great problems with them ( and Thoro-graphs ), due to a number of factors which they take into account which I simply don't agree with ( weight ) and feel make the numbers seriously deceptive ( ground loss ). I believe those numbers can have value, and would NEVER suggest they aren't a very well thought out computation, I just believe I am better off using a raw speed figure, which I would qualify the Beyer numbers as, and then making my own interpretations about how they were earned. I would never suggest any number is the " real truth ", neither Beyer figs nor Ragozins, and can't believe any serious student of the game would do just that.