Who holds the clockers in the mornings and odds makers accountable?

GBBob · #1 10-19-2009, 09:53 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by kgar311

The funny part about the whole thing was all the people in the winners circle just made the win bet. They were obviously there to make a win bet on a sure thing and get their picture taken.

Check out the Pick4 payoff

5/2 5/2 8-1 3-1
$2 ticket paid $4624.40

I'm trying to folow your logic, but you can't mean that because they had a large group of people, they expected to win? Obviously there was some knowledge of this horse based on what it opened at, but you have too many slipperly slopes about this, IMO.

NTamm1215 · #2 10-19-2009, 09:57 AM

As far as the Pick 4 payoff, it was high without question based on a win parlay but remember that two huge favorites were beaten in the sequence and I don't think Hot Cha Cha played like 8-1 in the multi-race plays.

There were certainly not a great deal of Pick 4 players who chose to beat both Warrior's Reward and Gozzip Girl.

NT

kgar311 · #3 10-19-2009, 10:02 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by NTamm1215

As far as the Pick 4 payoff, it was high without question based on a win parlay but remember that two huge favorites were beaten in the sequence and I don't think Hot Cha Cha played like 8-1 in the multi-race plays.

There were certainly not a great deal of Pick 4 players who chose to beat both Warrior's Reward and Gozzip Girl.

NT

The filly made the ticket PERIOD, Warriors Reward is a rat and I thought GG was huge bet against. I bet Hot Cha Cha to win but needed GG for second for a large ex ticket.

kgar311 · #4 10-19-2009, 09:59 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by GBBob

I'm trying to folow your logic, but you can't mean that because they had a large group of people, they expected to win? Obviously there was some knowledge of this horse based on what it opened at, but you have too many slipperly slopes about this, IMO.

Im glad that you think everything is on the up and up here Bob. Lets just chalk this up to good handicapping by the betting public and not letting those 103 workouts by a 2yr old filly staring for the first time out of the 12 hole get by them.
I will never underestimate the smarts of the betting public again and never ever will I bet against a favorite as long as I live.

GBBob · #5 10-19-2009, 10:04 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by kgar311

Im glad that you think everything is on the up and up here Bob. Lets just chalk this up to good handicapping by the betting public and not letting those 103 workouts by a 2yr old filly staring for the first time out of the 12 hole get by them.
I will never underestimate the smarts of the betting public again and never ever will I bet against a favorite as long as I live.

I think Battaglia blew the morning line and at most, they didn't ask the horse for much in the mornings. Someone pointed to the bullet at CD earlier so there was some indication about his talent. I just think to have this grassy knoll theory involving clockers is giving them too much credit. If anything, blame the trainer..or give him his creds for getting the horse to the race on top of his game and not wasting energy going .58 in the AM.

brianwspencer · #6 10-19-2009, 10:09 AM

Wait, a first-time starter took unexpected early money (while being owned by a huge group of people) and then ran well?

I don't think that has ever happened before!

randallscott35 · #7 10-19-2009, 10:14 AM

Easy way to avoid this problem, don't bet firsters or races involved with them....Tough to make a line on baby races.

philcski · #8 10-19-2009, 04:21 PM

This whole thread is LOL. People who bet based on ML's are why yesterday's late P4 at KEE paid $1865 when in reality it should have paid around half that because a 15-1 ML horse (trained by PLETCHER!) who won a wide open, mile and a half turfer first leg at 7-1. The other winners were 2nd choice, 4th choice (2nd ML), and heavy favorite.

Battaglia missed on the ML. The horse should have been 6-1 ML or so, and as Hooves said scratched Friday for this spot. Big deal, it's a firster, he generally does a good job at making morning lines (whereas he should have retired from calling races long ago)

DaTruth · #9 10-26-2009, 08:33 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by sammy

good point. i always like to see them run once before i dive in.

Maiden races on the grass are a bit easier.

kgar311 · #10 10-19-2009, 10:17 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by GBBob

I think Battaglia blew the morning line and at most, they didn't ask the horse for much in the mornings. Someone pointed to the bullet at CD earlier so there was some indication about his talent. I just think to have this grassy knoll theory involving clockers is giving them too much credit. If anything, blame the trainer..or give him his creds for getting the horse to the race on top of his game and not wasting energy going .58 in the AM.

I think she was doing 58 in the morning

Scav · #11 10-19-2009, 10:22 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by kgar311

I think she was doing 58 in the morning

Sounds like you got smoked on the race and you are feeling the pain.

kgar311 · #12 10-19-2009, 10:29 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Scav

Sounds like you got smoked on the race and you are feeling the pain.

Everyone got smoked on the race.
And why shouldn't I be mad? Wouldn't you be mad if someone punched you in the face, stuck their hand in your pocket, took a couple hundred bucks and walked away with your money? or would you be cool with it.
I see no difference between that and what happened with this race. I along with thousands of other people were criminally robbed by what transpired.

#13 10-19-2009, 10:32 AM

It's called gambling for a reason.

brianwspencer · #14 10-19-2009, 10:33 AM

Not to mention that lots of folks see early money as "smart money" on unraced horses. So, either way, if she's owned by as gigantic a group as you say, then naturally they're going to bet her.

They bet her hard, she opens at low odds.

Others with no information at all see a firster with solid back works, breaking from the 12 for a competent conditioner, open as the heavily bet chalk and say "hey, someone knows something."

In a race like that, a horse like that taking lots of early money marked her as a contender, so she continued to get bet. Big deal.

Plus, it's not like this "post 12" thing is some giant conspiracy....considering that this Spring, from limited starters in one-turn main track races, it was the 4th most advantageous post as far as percentage of winners....and get this -- last fall? The MOST advantageous post for one-turn main track races, when runners breaking from that wild hellhole won an almost unfathomable 23% of their races.

Bigsmc · #15 10-19-2009, 10:34 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by kgar311

Everyone got smoked on the race.
And why shouldn't I be mad? Wouldn't you be mad if someone punched you in the face, stuck their hand in your pocket, took a couple hundred bucks and walked away with your money? or would you be cool with it.
I see no difference between that and what happened with this race. I along with thousands of other people were criminally robbed by what transpired.

Not everyone.

Scav · #16 10-19-2009, 10:34 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by kgar311

Everyone got smoked on the race.
And why shouldn't I be mad? Wouldn't you be mad if someone punched you in the face, stuck their hand in your pocket, took a couple hundred bucks and walked away with your money? or would you be cool with it.
I see no difference between that and what happened with this race. I along with thousands of other people were criminally robbed by what transpired.

Yeah, ok...From a trainer who never works his horses fast, points for the Keeneland meet, and all, and I mean ALL his horses are getting bet off the board, you must never score on an Assmussen first timer either.....

brianwspencer · #17 10-19-2009, 10:46 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by kgar311

Everyone got smoked on the race.
And why shouldn't I be mad? Wouldn't you be mad if someone punched you in the face, stuck their hand in your pocket, took a couple hundred bucks and walked away with your money? or would you be cool with it.
I see no difference between that and what happened with this race. I along with thousands of other people were criminally robbed by what transpired.

This strikes me as having a little post of the year potential.

DaTruth · #18 10-19-2009, 11:01 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by kgar311

Everyone got smoked on the race.
And why shouldn't I be mad? Wouldn't you be mad if someone punched you in the face, stuck their hand in your pocket, took a couple hundred bucks and walked away with your money? or would you be cool with it.
I see no difference between that and what happened with this race. I along with thousands of other people were criminally robbed by what transpired.

So you have never profited from these "deceptive" practices that are so prevalent in racing? If you had figured out on your own that this was a live one, you wouldn't have bet it because you wouldn't have wanted to be a party to the deception, right?

hoovesupsideyourhead · #19 10-19-2009, 01:37 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by kgar311

Everyone got smoked on the race.
And why shouldn't I be mad? Wouldn't you be mad if someone punched you in the face, stuck their hand in your pocket, took a couple hundred bucks and walked away with your money? or would you be cool with it.
I see no difference between that and what happened with this race. I along with thousands of other people were criminally robbed by what transpired.

the horse did scr in for this spot..and was pounded at the windows..why the big deal..

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