BC Classic future odds

Nothin doin.

[1st_Saturday_in_May]

Wouldnt take any of those.

[DiscreetCat=Monster]

Originally Posted by 1st_Saturday_in_May

Wouldnt take any of those.

Who do you like then?

[1st_Saturday_in_May]

Originally Posted by LOSE=GLUE

Who do you like then?

I like several of those horses, and I'm confident in saying that the winner is on that list, but the prices are much too low.

Either Bernardini or Invasor is going to lose the JCGC (if not both) so the post time odds on one of the two should be higher than being offered right now.

I will never take anything lower than 10/1 in a future bet because the risk outweighs the reward so the first 3 are out.

I have no confirmation that Shirocco is going in the Classic or the connections are doing anything more than throwing the idea around

David Junior and Dylan Thomas could be the only horses with a big possibility of going off under their futures odds, but good luck deciphering their form...

Sun King is a horse that I like for the race, but I wouldnt touch him at 14/1. Hoping for a hot pace and closer to 20/1

Bro Derek is nowhere near this class and the other two would be available at greater than 25/1 if the gates opened tomorrow

THe rest, hah, not a chance...

The only horse I'd briefly consider outside of these is Lawyer Ron, but that consideration would like be just that - brief.

[DiscreetCat=Monster]

I think a few more horses will rise up before the BC its a hard thing to have a top notch racehorse on there A game all year like, LAVA MAN, and INVASOR My tickets are gonna be on the longshots in the classic, common Valponi! LMAO

[Buffymommy]

Originally Posted by LOSE=GLUE

I think a few more horses will rise up before the BC its a hard thing to have a top notch racehorse on there A game all year like, LAVA MAN, and INVASOR My tickets are gonna be on the longshots in the classic, common Valponi! LMAO

With 33-1 odds, go with my boy... I have a feeling...

[Gander]

Invasor at 7/2 and Lava Man at 5/1, 7 weeks away and still 1 prep to be run for each horse? Thats absolutely insane. You will be able to get at least those odds on the day of, if not higher.

[Dunbar]

Originally Posted by 1st_Saturday_in_May

I will never take anything lower than 10/1 in a future bet because the risk outweighs the reward so the first 3 are out.

You wouldn't take Bernardini at 9-1? I'd be all over that one.

The risks can be estimated. And if a horse has, say, a 75% chance to start in the race, and, say, a 33% chance to win if he starts (some would consider that too conservative for Bernardini), then overall he has about a 25% chance to win the race. That would put fair odds for a future bet at around 3-1. I'd make a much bigger than normal bet if I could get 9-1.

--Dunbar

[Gander]

As much a fan of Bernardini as I am, 3/1 odds isnt all that great to me Dunbar. Theres another race to run before the Classic and many workouts still to happen between now and first week of November. The biggest knock I have against Bernardini is something may not go right between now and then. 3/1 isnt worth it in my book. Seems like far too many things can go wrong with horses and it makes no difference what kind of horse it is. The horse can come down with a cold the week of the race and not start.

[Dunbar]

Originally Posted by Gander

As much a fan of Bernardini as I am, 3/1 odds isnt all that great to me Dunbar. Theres another race to run before the Classic and many workouts still to happen between now and first week of November. The biggest knock I have against Bernardini is something may not go right between now and then. 3/1 isnt worth it in my book. Seems like far too many things can go wrong with horses and it makes no difference what kind of horse it is. The horse can come down with a cold the week of the race and not start.

You are probably right. I'm not really stressing the 3-1. I was illustrating how one could estimate the risk and get an idea what fair future odds might be. I was primarily responding to the poster's remark that he/she'd never take less than 10-1 on a future bet.

I chose a 75% chance that Bernardini makes the race and a 33% chance he wins if he makes the race. (btw, which of those do you think is off?). My main point was that 9-1 is definitely worth taking, no matter what reasonable numbers you assign to those two probabilities.

If you think Bernardini has just a 60% chance to make the race, and if you think he has just a 25% chance of winning it if he starts, you'd come up with an overall 15% chance of winning. (60%*25% = 15%) Those figs would suggest that 5-1 is about fair. 9-1 would still look very generous.

--Dunbar