Summer Bird could be HOY

[brianwspencer]

Originally Posted by parsixfarms

Horses' form is not static. We wager on races every day trying to figure out why Horse A, who was beaten by Horse B in a given race, may not be able to do it again. I don't think there's any doubt that Summer Bird, in his 7th and 8th career lifetime starts, has improved since the Haskell. Also, the Woodward showed the effects that a long, impressive campaign had upon Rachel Alexandra. I know that it's just "opinion and conjecture'", but given what's transpired since the Haskell, had Summer Bird and Rachel Alexandra raced against each other yesterday in the Jockey Club Gold Cup, I think the outcome of the Haskell was likely to be reversed.

The Woodward may have shown some effects of a long campaign, but I believe it showed more of the effects of running a sprint race for six furlongs before trying to hold off a Grade I winning closer.

Originally Posted by Kasept

Tim Ice would agree with you, and he hopes/anticipates there will be chances for Summer Bird and Rachel Alexandra to meet a few times next year. He thinks she has an edge at 9f and that he has an edge at 10f.

And the highlighted point above is something Ice believes is worth some acknowledging as well... that Summer Bird was giving away a lot of experience and bottom to Rachel Alexandra at Monmouth.

Enough of an edge to overcome the likely five length lead she would have had at the top of the lane?

[parsixfarms]

Originally Posted by brianwspencer

The Woodward may have shown some effects of a long campaign, but I believe it showed more of the effects of running a sprint race for six furlongs before trying to hold off a Grade I winning closer.

I know that this sort of statement has reached the level of "urban legend" by now, but can we please stop this "she set a ridiculous pace" nonsense? Yes, the fractions that she set were fast for a 3YO filly, but she was running in a Grade I race for older horses going 9F at Saratoga. In that historical context, her opening quarter was fast, but her first half and 6F splits were about "average" for such races at Saratoga this decade (and there were 9F races run by NY-breds such as Future Prospect and Fiddlers Afleet this year that were faster to the half).

2002 Whitney (Left Bank): 23.0, 45.4, 1:09.1

2003 Whitney (Medaglia D'oro): 23.2, 46.4, 1:10.2

2004 Whitney (Roses In May): 22.3, 45.1, 1:08.4

2005 Whitney (Commentator): 23.2, 46.2, 1:09.3 (Ironically, many of the same people who have tried to knock Commentator on this board by arguing that he got away with soft fractions in his match-up with Saint Liam are stating that Rachel Alexandra survived a suicidal pace.)

2006 Whitney (Invasor): 23.0, 47.0, 1:11.1

2006 Woodward (Premium Tap): 23.3, 47.1, 1:11.4

2007 Whitney (Lawyer Ron): 23.4, 47.1, 1:10.1

2007 Woodward (Lawyer Ron): 23.1, 46.2, 1:10.2

2008 Whitney (Commentator): 24.0, 47.3, 1:11.4

2008 Woodward (Curlin): 22.4, 46.1, 1:09.3

2009 Whitney (Bullsbay): 23.2, 46.1, 1:10.0

2009 Woodward (Rachel Alexandra): 22.4, 46.2, 1:10.2

[Kasept]

Originally Posted by brianwspencer

Enough of an edge to overcome the likely five length lead she would have had at the top of the lane?

While that would all depend on the race flow to the quarter pole/eighth pole, Summer Bird will wear down opponents the longer the race goes. And as he's maturing, he's showing the ability to be placed anywhere. He certainly is getting tactical to the point where he could sit a garden trip early as Rachel Alexandra gets engaged up front. His turn of foot is much better than anyone wanted to believe, and while he may not have the brilliance and cruising speed Rachel Alexandra has, he certainly has a highly sustainable gear.

What has to be brought into the conversation is that Summer Bird is continuing to improve. Next year should be tremendously entertaining should the two of them have opportunities together. And I mean opportunities plural too, because a rivalry between them would be riotous.

[freddymo]

Originally Posted by Kasept

While that would all depend on the race flow to the quarter pole/eighth pole, Summer Bird will wear down opponents the longer the race goes. And as he's maturing, he's showing the ability to be placed anywhere. He certainly is getting tactical to the point where he could sit a garden trip early as Rachel Alexandra gets engaged up front. His turn of foot is much better than anyone wanted to believe, and while he may not have the brilliance and cruising speed Rachel Alexandra has, he certainly has a highly sustainable gear.

What has to be brought into the conversation is that Summer Bird is continuing to improve. Next year should be tremendously entertaining should the two of them have opportunities together. And I mean opportunities plural too, because a rivalry between them would be riotous.

They are in two completely different leagues. Who knows what happens next year but currently you have a very nice G1 colt vs. a REAL super horse (remember what Nerud told you or did you forget because we like Ice?). I am surprised that you think he would have any shot against her ever. Plus who is coming next year to sacifice a horse when they are running for 3rd money, Dry Martini or Awesome Gem?

Remember Ice is 35 years old..Nothing against him at all..But your bottom comments about Summer Bird are more relevant to Ice then Summer Bird.

[brianwspencer]

Originally Posted by freddymo

But your bottom comments about Summer Bird are more relevant to Ice then Summer Bird.

Originally Posted by freddymo

Umh how the FCUK did he get 12 without a bottom the first week on JUNE???

[Kasept]

Originally Posted by freddymo

They are in two completely different leagues. Who knows what happens next year but currently you have a very nice G1 colt vs. a REAL super horse (remember what Nerud told you or did you forget because we like Ice?). I am surprised that you think he would have any shot against her ever. Plus who is coming next year to sacifice a horse when they are running for 3rd money, Dry Martini or Awesome Gem?

Remember Ice is 35 years old..Nothing against him at all..But your bottom comments about Summer Bird are more relevant to Ice then Summer Bird.

Freddy,

You're talking about what has happened when the discussion is about what lies ahead.

And you're not giving any nuance to the appreciation for the difference between how bottom applies in a fitness race versus an endurance race.

[freddymo]

Originally Posted by Kasept

Freddy,

You're talking about what has happened when the discussion is about what lies ahead.

And you're not giving any nuance to the appreciation for the difference between how bottom applies in a fitness race versus an endurance race.

He have no clue how either will winter and come back.

You are really going to have to expand on bottom thoughts.. Because you would think if a horse can win the Belmont he would need to be fit..lol

[brianwspencer]

Originally Posted by Kasept

You're talking about what has happened when the discussion is about what lies ahead.

Given that Rachel is done for the year and Summer Bird has one race left, isn't a thread titled "Summer Bird could be HOY" necessarily predicated on what has happened, rather than what lies ahead...something along the lines of a 90/10 split in that direction, at least?

Next year will be dealt with next year, if they're both still at the top of their game, that will be next year's fun - and it will be awesome. But unless we're talking about how Summer Bird could be HOY in 2010, and I've missed it, Freddy seems to be on the right track for discussion.

[CSC]

Originally Posted by brianwspencer

Given that Rachel is done for the year and Summer Bird has one race left, isn't a thread titled "Summer Bird could be HOY" necessarily predicated on what has happened,

In the future I would love the next time JJ maps out a campaign for a horse, that he fits into his reasoning that the season doesn't end on the first week of September regardless of who the horse is and I am not evening talking about the BC necessarily especially when the vast majority of good horses have plans of running in November and beyond.

[Kasept]

Originally Posted by brianwspencer

Given that Rachel is done for the year and Summer Bird has one race left, isn't a thread titled "Summer Bird could be HOY" necessarily predicated on what has happened, rather than what lies ahead...something along the lines of a 90/10 split in that direction, at least?

Next year will be dealt with next year, if they're both still at the top of their game, that will be next year's fun - and it will be awesome. But unless we're talking about how Summer Bird could be HOY in 2010, and I've missed it, Freddy seems to be on the right track for discussion.

I didn't realize every post in the thread was supposed to deal only with the title of the thread. There was a different subplot kind of being discussed I thought, but go on talking about whatever it is you feel is most germane.