Summer Bird could be HOY

[parsixfarms]

Originally Posted by Danzig

i disagree on both statements.

rachel soundly defeated summer bird. that is a fact. thoughts on what could happen is conjecture and opinion. the fact she ran the preakness while pressured throughout and won at 1/16th shorter would give me NO pause at thinking she could handle that extra half furlong. taking the way that race was run by her as how it would be run at 10f, and what she would do at the end is a stretch of the imagination imo.

Horses' form is not static. We wager on races every day trying to figure out why Horse A, who was beaten by Horse B in a given race, may not be able to do it again. I don't think there's any doubt that Summer Bird, in his 7th and 8th career lifetime starts, has improved since the Haskell. Also, the Woodward showed the effects that a long, impressive campaign had upon Rachel Alexandra. I know that it's just "opinion and conjecture'", but given what's transpired since the Haskell, had Summer Bird and Rachel Alexandra raced against each other yesterday in the Jockey Club Gold Cup, I think the outcome of the Haskell was likely to be reversed.

[Kasept]

Originally Posted by parsixfarms

Horses' form is not static. We wager on races every day trying to figure out why Horse A, who was beaten by Horse B in a given race, may not be able to do it again. I don't think there's any doubt that Summer Bird, in his 7th and 8th career lifetime starts, has improved since the Haskell. Also, the Woodward showed the effects that a long, impressive campaign had upon Rachel Alexandra. I know that it's just "opinion and conjecture'", but given what's transpired since the Haskell, had Summer Bird and Rachel Alexandra raced against each other yesterday in the Jockey Club Gold Cup, I think the outcome of the Haskell was likely to be reversed.

Tim Ice would agree with you, and he hopes/anticipates there will be chances for Summer Bird and Rachel Alexandra to meet a few times next year. He thinks she has an edge at 9f and that he has an edge at 10f.

And the highlighted point above is something Ice believes is worth some acknowledging as well... that Summer Bird was giving away a lot of experience and bottom to Rachel Alexandra at Monmouth.

[brianwspencer]

Originally Posted by parsixfarms

Horses' form is not static. We wager on races every day trying to figure out why Horse A, who was beaten by Horse B in a given race, may not be able to do it again. I don't think there's any doubt that Summer Bird, in his 7th and 8th career lifetime starts, has improved since the Haskell. Also, the Woodward showed the effects that a long, impressive campaign had upon Rachel Alexandra. I know that it's just "opinion and conjecture'", but given what's transpired since the Haskell, had Summer Bird and Rachel Alexandra raced against each other yesterday in the Jockey Club Gold Cup, I think the outcome of the Haskell was likely to be reversed.

The Woodward may have shown some effects of a long campaign, but I believe it showed more of the effects of running a sprint race for six furlongs before trying to hold off a Grade I winning closer.

Originally Posted by Kasept

Tim Ice would agree with you, and he hopes/anticipates there will be chances for Summer Bird and Rachel Alexandra to meet a few times next year. He thinks she has an edge at 9f and that he has an edge at 10f.

And the highlighted point above is something Ice believes is worth some acknowledging as well... that Summer Bird was giving away a lot of experience and bottom to Rachel Alexandra at Monmouth.

Enough of an edge to overcome the likely five length lead she would have had at the top of the lane?

[parsixfarms]

Originally Posted by brianwspencer

The Woodward may have shown some effects of a long campaign, but I believe it showed more of the effects of running a sprint race for six furlongs before trying to hold off a Grade I winning closer.

I know that this sort of statement has reached the level of "urban legend" by now, but can we please stop this "she set a ridiculous pace" nonsense? Yes, the fractions that she set were fast for a 3YO filly, but she was running in a Grade I race for older horses going 9F at Saratoga. In that historical context, her opening quarter was fast, but her first half and 6F splits were about "average" for such races at Saratoga this decade (and there were 9F races run by NY-breds such as Future Prospect and Fiddlers Afleet this year that were faster to the half).

2002 Whitney (Left Bank): 23.0, 45.4, 1:09.1

2003 Whitney (Medaglia D'oro): 23.2, 46.4, 1:10.2

2004 Whitney (Roses In May): 22.3, 45.1, 1:08.4

2005 Whitney (Commentator): 23.2, 46.2, 1:09.3 (Ironically, many of the same people who have tried to knock Commentator on this board by arguing that he got away with soft fractions in his match-up with Saint Liam are stating that Rachel Alexandra survived a suicidal pace.)

2006 Whitney (Invasor): 23.0, 47.0, 1:11.1

2006 Woodward (Premium Tap): 23.3, 47.1, 1:11.4

2007 Whitney (Lawyer Ron): 23.4, 47.1, 1:10.1

2007 Woodward (Lawyer Ron): 23.1, 46.2, 1:10.2

2008 Whitney (Commentator): 24.0, 47.3, 1:11.4

2008 Woodward (Curlin): 22.4, 46.1, 1:09.3

2009 Whitney (Bullsbay): 23.2, 46.1, 1:10.0

2009 Woodward (Rachel Alexandra): 22.4, 46.2, 1:10.2

[Kasept]

Originally Posted by brianwspencer

Enough of an edge to overcome the likely five length lead she would have had at the top of the lane?

While that would all depend on the race flow to the quarter pole/eighth pole, Summer Bird will wear down opponents the longer the race goes. And as he's maturing, he's showing the ability to be placed anywhere. He certainly is getting tactical to the point where he could sit a garden trip early as Rachel Alexandra gets engaged up front. His turn of foot is much better than anyone wanted to believe, and while he may not have the brilliance and cruising speed Rachel Alexandra has, he certainly has a highly sustainable gear.

What has to be brought into the conversation is that Summer Bird is continuing to improve. Next year should be tremendously entertaining should the two of them have opportunities together. And I mean opportunities plural too, because a rivalry between them would be riotous.

[freddymo]

Originally Posted by Kasept

While that would all depend on the race flow to the quarter pole/eighth pole, Summer Bird will wear down opponents the longer the race goes. And as he's maturing, he's showing the ability to be placed anywhere. He certainly is getting tactical to the point where he could sit a garden trip early as Rachel Alexandra gets engaged up front. His turn of foot is much better than anyone wanted to believe, and while he may not have the brilliance and cruising speed Rachel Alexandra has, he certainly has a highly sustainable gear.

What has to be brought into the conversation is that Summer Bird is continuing to improve. Next year should be tremendously entertaining should the two of them have opportunities together. And I mean opportunities plural too, because a rivalry between them would be riotous.

They are in two completely different leagues. Who knows what happens next year but currently you have a very nice G1 colt vs. a REAL super horse (remember what Nerud told you or did you forget because we like Ice?). I am surprised that you think he would have any shot against her ever. Plus who is coming next year to sacifice a horse when they are running for 3rd money, Dry Martini or Awesome Gem?

Remember Ice is 35 years old..Nothing against him at all..But your bottom comments about Summer Bird are more relevant to Ice then Summer Bird.

[brianwspencer]

Originally Posted by freddymo

But your bottom comments about Summer Bird are more relevant to Ice then Summer Bird.

Originally Posted by freddymo

Umh how the FCUK did he get 12 without a bottom the first week on JUNE???

[Kasept]

Originally Posted by freddymo

They are in two completely different leagues. Who knows what happens next year but currently you have a very nice G1 colt vs. a REAL super horse (remember what Nerud told you or did you forget because we like Ice?). I am surprised that you think he would have any shot against her ever. Plus who is coming next year to sacifice a horse when they are running for 3rd money, Dry Martini or Awesome Gem?

Remember Ice is 35 years old..Nothing against him at all..But your bottom comments about Summer Bird are more relevant to Ice then Summer Bird.

Freddy,

You're talking about what has happened when the discussion is about what lies ahead.

And you're not giving any nuance to the appreciation for the difference between how bottom applies in a fitness race versus an endurance race.

[freddymo]

Originally Posted by Kasept

Freddy,

You're talking about what has happened when the discussion is about what lies ahead.

And you're not giving any nuance to the appreciation for the difference between how bottom applies in a fitness race versus an endurance race.

He have no clue how either will winter and come back.

You are really going to have to expand on bottom thoughts.. Because you would think if a horse can win the Belmont he would need to be fit..lol

[brianwspencer]

Originally Posted by Kasept

You're talking about what has happened when the discussion is about what lies ahead.

Given that Rachel is done for the year and Summer Bird has one race left, isn't a thread titled "Summer Bird could be HOY" necessarily predicated on what has happened, rather than what lies ahead...something along the lines of a 90/10 split in that direction, at least?

Next year will be dealt with next year, if they're both still at the top of their game, that will be next year's fun - and it will be awesome. But unless we're talking about how Summer Bird could be HOY in 2010, and I've missed it, Freddy seems to be on the right track for discussion.

[CSC]

Originally Posted by brianwspencer

Given that Rachel is done for the year and Summer Bird has one race left, isn't a thread titled "Summer Bird could be HOY" necessarily predicated on what has happened,

In the future I would love the next time JJ maps out a campaign for a horse, that he fits into his reasoning that the season doesn't end on the first week of September regardless of who the horse is and I am not evening talking about the BC necessarily especially when the vast majority of good horses have plans of running in November and beyond.

[Kasept]

Originally Posted by brianwspencer

Given that Rachel is done for the year and Summer Bird has one race left, isn't a thread titled "Summer Bird could be HOY" necessarily predicated on what has happened, rather than what lies ahead...something along the lines of a 90/10 split in that direction, at least?

Next year will be dealt with next year, if they're both still at the top of their game, that will be next year's fun - and it will be awesome. But unless we're talking about how Summer Bird could be HOY in 2010, and I've missed it, Freddy seems to be on the right track for discussion.

I didn't realize every post in the thread was supposed to deal only with the title of the thread. There was a different subplot kind of being discussed I thought, but go on talking about whatever it is you feel is most germane.

[CSC]

Originally Posted by parsixfarms

Horses' form is not static. We wager on races every day trying to figure out why Horse A, who was beaten by Horse B in a given race, may not be able to do it again. I don't think there's any doubt that Summer Bird, in his 7th and 8th career lifetime starts, has improved since the Haskell. Also, the Woodward showed the effects that a long, impressive campaign had upon Rachel Alexandra. I know that it's just "opinion and conjecture'", but given what's transpired since the Haskell, had Summer Bird and Rachel Alexandra raced against each other yesterday in the Jockey Club Gold Cup, I think the outcome of the Haskell was likely to be reversed.

Your post is the most spot on in this thread, it's a distortion to think RA is 10 lengths better than SB at this point of time had they both run yesterday. One horse is getting better with maturity and the other may be showing signs of tailing off, I find it hard to believe for one moment that if Jess Jackson had thought RA was feeling good about herself and that she would run well at SA that she wouldn't be there, 8 weeks between races is more than enough time to have a fresh horse ready for the BC Classic especially for a trainer of Asmussen's capabilities. It's all conjecture what would have happened if she faced Summer Bird yesterday, my humble opinion I think she would have been up against it, Kent D was quoted there was more left in the tank if he needed it against QR and for Beyer backers it was only a 111 he ran yesterday, more than enough to give her a headache than the 107 she ran in the Woodward a race 1 furlong shorter.

[brianwspencer]

Originally Posted by CSC

I find it hard to believe for one moment that if Jess Jackson had thought RA was feeling good about herself and that she would run well at SA that she wouldn't be there

Just for the sake of asking, why do you say that? Why is it hard to believe that he is sticking to what he said three months ago, before she "showed signs of tailing off?"

The man is keeping his word -- you doubting his intentions doesn't change that. He said he wasn't going to SA LONG before Summer Bird became this "monster" that he should be afraid of. Actually, didn't he say he wouldn't be going even before she waxed Summer Bird the first time around?

So what makes you think his thoughts are anything other than what he's stated since the very beginning?

[CSC]

Originally Posted by brianwspencer

Just for the sake of asking, why do you say that? Why is it hard to believe that he is sticking to what he said three months ago, before she "showed signs of tailing off?"

The man is keeping his word -- you doubting his intentions doesn't change that. He said he wasn't going to SA LONG before Summer Bird became this "monster" that he should be afraid of. Actually, didn't he say he wouldn't be going even before she waxed Summer Bird the first time around?

So what makes you think his thoughts are anything other than what he's stated since the very beginning?

I think at most he would have atleast reserved the right to change his mind if she doing well, it happens all the time in this sport, plans are not set in stone. Infact I find it hard to fathom why he would have said that 3 months ago not knowing how she would be doing at this stage? No doubt what he did was the smart thing it was a brilliant Preemptive strike for HOY.

[brianwspencer]

Originally Posted by CSC

I think at most he would would have reserved the right to change his mind if she doing well, it happens all the time in this sport, plans are not set in stone. Infact I find it hard to fathom why he would have said that 3 months ago not knowing how she would be doing at this stage? No doubt what he did was the smart thing it was a brilliant Preemptive strike for HOY.

Do you remember last year?

Whether you want to blame Robby for a premature move or not, he insisted that Curlin wouldn't go out West, for the same reason. He gave in, even though he never wanted to go out there, and the horse lost to some turf horses from Europe.

Gee, I wonder why he wouldn't be jumping out of his pants to have another go round at it. I'm baffled. It must be the extra furlong....

[3kings]

Originally Posted by CSC

I think at most he would have atleast reserved the right to change his mind if she doing well, it happens all the time in this sport, plans are not set in stone. Infact I find it hard to fathom why he would have said that 3 months ago not knowing how she would be doing at this stage? No doubt what he did was the smart thing it was a brilliant Preemptive strike for HOY.

I think in Jackson's mind his predetermined refusal to run RA in the BC regardless of circumstance justifies(to himself) Curlin's poor performance last year. He didn't want to run Curlin on the poly and does not want to tarnish the perception of RA, like he feels Curlins' was tarnished.

[CSC]

Originally Posted by 3kings

I think in Jackson's mind his predetermined refusal to run RA in the BC regardless of circumstance justifies(to himself) Curlin's poor performance last year. He didn't want to run Curlin on the poly and does not want to tarnish the perception of RA, like he feels Curlins' was tarnished.

Yes agreed, but isn't the unknown part of racing what makes it such a great sport? If it is it's dumb reason why he isn't running her especially since she has won on poly before.

[3kings]

Originally Posted by CSC

Yes agreed, but isn't the unknown part of racing what makes it such a great sport? If it is it's dumb reason why he isn't running her especially since she has won on poly before.

Agreed! I didn't say it was a good reason or logical, just my opinion of Jackson's reason.

[brianwspencer]

Originally Posted by CSC

Yes agreed, but isn't the unknown part of racing what makes it such a great sport? If it is it's dumb reason why he isn't running her especially since she has won on poly before.

While I'm always torn on how I feel about Jackson, and am mostly playing devil's advocate on this particular issue -- why on Earth should he care about the "unknown" and it being "exciting?"

It's his horse, he doesn't think it's in her best interests to run on the stuff, just like he didn't with Curlin last year, and that turned out poorly.

Let's lobby Interpretation's folks to cut him back to a 5-furlong Poly allowance race this fall, it's unknown and would be exciting, right? The sport would be better for it.