How good is Lava Man?

[Rupert Pupkin]

Originally Posted by LOSE=GLUE

Still not gonna change my opinon. I watched Good Reward run and I just don't think he would of been within 10 lenghts of Bernadini or Invasor for that matter and their only 3yo's. California horses are weaker than ever this year and by Nov 4th Lava Man will be way past his prime to deal with all the fresh faces.

LM's last 2 races were not as impressive as some of his other races. He may not be as sharp right now as he has been in the past. I'm not saying that he can beat Bernardidni. I would definitely give Benardini the edge right now.

I'm not a big fan of Invasor. By the way, Invasor is a 4 year old.

[sham]

Lava Man already proved he's a very good horse. Doesn't matter what happens in the classic. None stay in form indefinitely.

[Rupert Pupkin]

Originally Posted by sham

Lava Man already proved he's a very good horse. Doesn't matter what happens in the classic. None stay in form indefinitely.

Yes, that is exactly correct.

[DiscreetCat=Monster]

Originally Posted by sham

Lava Man already proved he's a very good horse. Doesn't matter what happens in the classic. None stay in form indefinitely.

I thought the thread said "How good is Lava Man" not "how good was Lava Man" I am just sayin he is gonna get his ass handed to him in the Classic. Horses eating habits change due to the weather and this is about the same time he took dump last year.

Lava Man is a very talented horse. He must contend with shipping for the Breeders' Cup, but that does not mean he is not a very fine racehorse. I think he is undoubtedly the best older horse in training. He is a grandson of the great Seattle Slew; as is Bernardini. It is the year of Slew.

You really can't use GR's race this weekend as a basis to prove anything. GR was coming off a long ship out and back and a lifetime top on the dirt. If ever a horse looked like a bounce it was him.
I still don't think Lava has beaten anything good this year, but we will know soon enough whether he can handle leaving California.

O the West coast tracks, great......Outside of California, very average....well, he'd probably love Keeneland, but he'll be an underlay at Churchill in the BC Classic...IMO

[Rupert Pupkin]

Originally Posted by LOSE=GLUE

I thought the thread said "How good is Lava Man" not "how good was Lava Man" I am just sayin he is gonna get his ass handed to him in the Classic. Horses eating habits change due to the weather and this is about the same time he took dump last year.

He and Bernardini each will have one last prep before the BC Classic. I think that Bernardini will win his race easily. I don't know about Lava Man. He is going to have to run against The Tin Man on the grass at Santa Anita. He may not win that race. But let's say that he does win the race. I would much rather bet him in the BC Classic than Bernardini. If they were equal odds, I would take Bernardini but they won't be equal odds. Bernardini will be about 3-5 and Lava Man will be about 5-1. In that situation, LM would be a much better bet than Bernardini. Bernardini will have never faced a horse like LM. He may be able to beat LM but I certainly would not take 3-5.

[blackthroatedwind]

I will be stunned if Lava Man hits the board in the BC Classic.

[Rupert Pupkin]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

I will be stunned if Lava Man hits the board in the BC Classic.

What are you thinking? How many races has the horse won in a row? He's the best horse by far on the west coast right now. When you have a horse that is absolutely dominant on the west coast, they are almost always competitive with the east coast horses. Not only have some of his races been visually impressive, but look at the numbers he has run over the last 1 1/2 years. I'm not big on speed figures but when a horse looks like a great horse and the numbers confirm it, there's really no reason to doubt the horse. The horse has run some incredible races. His last two races weren't that great but at least he's still winning. Barbaro's win in the Florida derby was not particularly impressive but I still knew it would be a mistake to underestimate him becuase he kept winning.

If you would be stunned to see LM hit the board, then you must have been stunned by Stevie Wonderboy, The Tin Man, and most horses that have gone back east and won. LM has certainly been as impressive as any of the west coast horses that have been able to win back east.

I'm not saying the horse will win. I don't know for sure that he can run as well on the road. Not only that, he's had a lot of races this year. Even if he does run his best, he may not be as good as Bernardini. It's hard to tell.

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by Rupert Pupkin

What are you thinking? How many races has the horse won in a row? He's the best horse by far on the west coast right now. When you have a horse that is absolutely dominant on the west coast, they are almost always competitive with the east coast horses. Not only have some of his races been visually impressive, but look at the numbers he has run over the last 1 1/2 years. I'm not big on speed figures but when a horse looks like a great horse and the numbers confirm it, there's really no reason to doubt the horse. The horse has run some incredible races. His last two races weren't that great but at least he's still winning. Barbaro's win in the Florida derby was not particularly impressive but I still knew it would be a mistake to underestimate him becuase he kept winning.

If you would be stunned to see LM hit the board, then you must have been stunned by Stevie Wonderboy, The Tin Man, and most horses that have gone back east and won. LM has certainly been as impressive as any of the west coast horses that have been able to win back east.

I'm not saying the horse will win. I don't know for sure that he can run as well on the road. Not only that, he's had a lot of races this year. Even if he does run his best, he may not be as good as Bernardini. It's hard to tell.

I think running outside of California is a major if for this horse. I never said he hasn't run a number of terrific races ( my qualifications for using the word " great " differ significantly from many others ) though I'm not sure how many of his races I would term " incredible " , but my off-hand guess would be none.

I don't know California racing very well, so I don't really know the trainers' reputations, though I seem to remember Doug O'Neill ( he is Lava Man's trainer, right? ) getting into some trouble in the not so recent past. Perhaps that trouble is completely unrelated to Lava Man's ascent from claimer to Horse of the Year candidate, I certainly hope so, but I know that many NY cheaters don't enjoy the same success on the road that they do at home ( unless they go to that Den of Iniquity known as Delaware Park where even Wyatt Earp would be defenseless ).

I actually like Lava Man, he has danced many dances, and danced them well. He won on the turf and dirt. He's a throw back. I just think Bernardini is superior to him and his on the pace running style may work against him in a way that it hasn't in California.

[JJP]

I'm not so sure the track surface will do Lava Man in. I'd be more concerned about the lack of race-day Bute.

[SniperSB23]

Originally Posted by Rupert Pupkin

If you would be stunned to see LM hit the board, then you must have been stunned by Stevie Wonderboy, The Tin Man, and most horses that have gone back east and won. LM has certainly been as impressive as any of the west coast horses that have been able to win back east.

Those are totally different cases. Both of those horse ran into perfect pace scenarios and any decent handicappers could have seen them coming from a mile away. I made some money on both of those horses but will not be backing Lava Man in the Classic.

[copying]

Originally Posted by Rupert Pupkin

If you would be stunned to see LM hit the board, then you must have been stunned by Stevie Wonderboy, The Tin Man, and most horses that have gone back east and won. LM has certainly been as impressive as any of the west coast horses that have been able to win back east.

.

Add Becrux to the list. You guys got any other $1mil races for us to take home?

[Gander]

O the West coast tracks, great......Outside of California, very average

Okay, well please tell me how the East Coast horses are when they ship out West? Or are the East Coast horses too good to ship out west? Its the East Coast bias thing going on again on this board. It will never change.

When Saint Liam ran a dud out in California, he was excuse for it, it was blamed on the track surface. But when Lava Man was up the track in the Jockey Club Gold Cup last year, he is deemed an inferior and overrated west coast horse. Regardless of what he has done this year, all anyone ever brings up is that Belmont race. Oh by the way Flower Alley was terrible in that race too. But he gets excused for it because of where he is based and who his trainer is. Blah! I dont wanna hear this jibberish anymore.

[Rupert Pupkin]

Originally Posted by merasmag

put pval back on em

It would be a great time for a jockey change. Nakatani has only won about 7 in a row in him.