Breeders Cup Turf winners 1999-2008

[King Glorious]

One thing that should be considered when judging the European runners is that the BC Turf is often not their goal but often an afterthought. For a lot of them, the Arc is their main goal and then they come over here for one more race after they've been primed for their best effort. For most American runners, the BC is their goal race and the one they are trained to be at their best for. I think that makes a big difference.

[RolloTomasi]

Originally Posted by King Glorious

One thing that should be considered when judging the European runners is that the BC Turf is often not their goal but often an afterthought. For a lot of them, the Arc is their main goal and then they come over here for one more race after they've been primed for their best effort. For most American runners, the BC is their goal race and the one they are trained to be at their best for. I think that makes a big difference.

That may have been a more significant issue in the early years of the BC. Nowadays, with $2 million dollars on the line, and even richer races further down the road in Japan and Hong Kong, I don't think European trainers are viewing these races as mere "afterthoughts".

[King Glorious]

Originally Posted by RolloTomasi

That may have been a more significant issue in the early years of the BC. Nowadays, with $2 million dollars on the line, and even richer races further down the road in Japan and Hong Kong, I don't think European trainers are viewing these races as mere "afterthoughts".

Maybe afterthought is the wrong word. But the purse of the BC doesn't make it a bigger target race than the Arc. The Derby could be for $500k and it would still be the biggest race of the year for 3yos. Winning a $100k race at Saratoga would mean more than winning a $500k race at Presque Isle for most people. The Arc is the one that they shoot for. What we've seen more of lately is that some are chosing the BC and skipping the Arc, maybe using the Irish Champion Stakes as their Arc prep. In that case, you might see a European runner come in at top form but I can't help but think that the reason we have never seen an Arc winner come over and win the BC Turf is because they've already passed their peak. I already know your next question; why have we seen a number of Arc also-rans come over and win? I'm working on that.

[Indian Charlie]

Originally Posted by King Glorious

Maybe afterthought is the wrong word. But the purse of the BC doesn't make it a bigger target race than the Arc. The Derby could be for $500k and it would still be the biggest race of the year for 3yos. Winning a $100k race at Saratoga would mean more than winning a $500k race at Presque Isle for most people. The Arc is the one that they shoot for. What we've seen more of lately is that some are chosing the BC and skipping the Arc, maybe using the Irish Champion Stakes as their Arc prep. In that case, you might see a European runner come in at top form but I can't help but think that the reason we have never seen an Arc winner come over and win the BC Turf is because they've already passed their peak. I already know your next question; why have we seen a number of Arc also-rans come over and win? I'm working on that.

Maybe what you said about the Arc winners not repeating in the BC is just a coincidence. Dancing Brave had what many believe a valid excuse.

Trempolino? He ran a great second to a very good, and underappreciated horse in Theatrical.

I think Montjeu had an injury, but I'm not sure of that.

Sakhee could have won the Turf, but ran second in the Classic.

I think Dylan Thomas was the most overrated horse from Europe in recent times.

Hurricane Run? I think his story was the same as his sire's Montjeu. Maybe I am mixing them up, but I think Hurricane Run also had some issues that kept him from running.

[brockguy]

Originally Posted by Indian Charlie

Maybe what you said about the Arc winners not repeating in the BC is just a coincidence. Dancing Brave had what many believe a valid excuse.

Trempolino? He ran a great second to a very good, and underappreciated horse in Theatrical.

I think Montjeu had an injury, but I'm not sure of that.

Sakhee could have won the Turf, but ran second in the Classic.

I think Dylan Thomas was the most overrated horse from Europe in recent times.

Hurricane Run? I think his story was the same as his sire's Montjeu. Maybe I am mixing them up, but I think Hurricane Run also had some issues that kept him from running.

Montjeu and Hurricane Run both basically lost their form and looked like something was bothering them but they kept racing them in an identical fashion (i.e disappointing in the arc, run them in the champion stakes, then run them in the turf). They also ran in the Turf the year after they won the Arc. Bago also ran the year after he won the Arc and came 3rd in Shirocco's win.

Dylan Thomas was an OK horse, but had severe limitations on soft ground. you deserved to lose money if you backed him at 6/5. If someone can think of a worse priced favourite in Breeders Cup history, please tell me.. and yeah, Sakhee would have romped in that year's turf.

[King Glorious]

Originally Posted by Indian Charlie

Maybe what you said about the Arc winners not repeating in the BC is just a coincidence. Dancing Brave had what many believe a valid excuse.

Trempolino? He ran a great second to a very good, and underappreciated horse in Theatrical.

I think Montjeu had an injury, but I'm not sure of that.

Sakhee could have won the Turf, but ran second in the Classic.

I think Dylan Thomas was the most overrated horse from Europe in recent times.

Hurricane Run? I think his story was the same as his sire's Montjeu. Maybe I am mixing them up, but I think Hurricane Run also had some issues that kept him from running.

They may have run some winning races, especially Trempolino but the fact is still that none of them have won. I think that if not for the draining efforts it took to win the Arc, perhaps some of them would have won over here despite the excuses. I could be wrong but until I see an Arc winner then come over to win the Turf, I'll believe there's something to this. I think it's similar to why only three horses have won the JCGC and the Classic in the same year, only three have won the Beldame and the Distaff, only one has doubled in the Vosburgh and Sprint. In recent years, the QE II winner either hasn't been sent over or has been sent over for the Turf or the Classic but it was a regular thing during the first 15 years of the BC to send them over for the Mile and they never won one. Meanwhile, races like the Goodwood, Super Derby, and Spinster were enjoying tremendous success as final preps. I believe it has a lot to do with those being easier races to win because the competition is not at tough and you don't have to run as hard and it leaves you more in the tank. Races like the fall championship races in NY, the Arc, and the QE II are major target races in their own rights and the efforts it takes to win them often leave the winners a little empty come BC day.

Of course, this is just a theory in my head.

[RolloTomasi]

Originally Posted by King Glorious

They may have run some winning races, especially Trempolino but the fact is still that none of them have won. I think that if not for the draining efforts it took to win the Arc, perhaps some of them would have won over here despite the excuses. I could be wrong but until I see an Arc winner then come over to win the Turf, I'll believe there's something to this. I think it's similar to why only three horses have won the JCGC and the Classic in the same year, only three have won the Beldame and the Distaff, only one has doubled in the Vosburgh and Sprint. In recent years, the QE II winner either hasn't been sent over or has been sent over for the Turf or the Classic but it was a regular thing during the first 15 years of the BC to send them over for the Mile and they never won one. Meanwhile, races like the Goodwood, Super Derby, and Spinster were enjoying tremendous success as final preps. I believe it has a lot to do with those being easier races to win because the competition is not at tough and you don't have to run as hard and it leaves you more in the tank. Races like the fall championship races in NY, the Arc, and the QE II are major target races in their own rights and the efforts it takes to win them often leave the winners a little empty come BC day.

The Vosburgh was until very recently run over the distance of 7f. The difference between 7f and 6f is pretty significant. Since its been run at 6f, Taste of Paradise was bothered in the stretch in the BC or might have got the double.

Several Queen Elizabeth II runners-up have taken the Mile.

For the Euros in general, I think the shipping/acclimation process is the more significant limiting factor here, not some mythologized "all out" effort needed to win the Arc or the Queen Elizabeth II.

In addition, I think the Arc winners that have come over haven't been the best of the bunch really. IIRC, Saumarez and Subotica were upset winners and wasn't there much talk of Bago's best trip being shorter than 12f despite the Arc win?