Long Time DerbyTrail.com member....

[SOREHOOF]

Good article, agree with all. Bullsbay had a better shot than 18-1 in that race.

[pweizer]

This was a great article but I think this thread has gone astray. Why does it have to be an either/or proposition. There have been plenty of years where you had good horses and competitive betting races. Isn't that what we should be after?

Paul

[SOREHOOF]

Every decent horse retires at 3 anymore, so we get a crappy Handicap Div. At least there are some pretty good 3yos still running this year. Maybe next year will be better!

[SOREHOOF]

Everyone seems to love high prices at auction, but that is a pretty huge contributor to early retirement. Get them out of there quick before they lose at 4 or get hurt. Breeding is where the $$ money is and if they're not gelded or fillies they lose value even attempting a campaign at 4 or beyond. Seems Makthoum spent all the $$ at Sar. so I wouldn't call it a big resurgence just yet. We totally understand the dynamics of this. Purses can't rise enough to offset this, we need buyers who will only pay top $$ for offspring of a horse proven at age 4+, even with a few losses. If Curlin babies bring HUGE $$ we might see the beginnings of a new trend. Lets hope.

[SOREHOOF]

I think good horses are winning these races.

[RockHardTen1985]

Originally Posted by SOREHOOF

I think good horses are winning these races.

Einstein won big races on synthetic and turf he's ok at best. Rail Trip might be good, but lets see one more. I doubt Bullsbay is good, Macho Again is a joke. Who exactly is good ? Gio Ponti is really good on turf. There are very few horses in training right now that can be considered really good. Rachel, Zenyatta, Quality Road are all really good and I guess one day they all might be called great. Fabolous Strike is a really good sprinter. Indian Blessing is good and a past champion but shes way off form. Gio Ponti is good. Who else is there?

[SOREHOOF]

I think Bullsbay and Macho are both good. Don't know about Rail Trip. Quality Road still has something to prove. Capt. Candy Man Can is a good horse. Papa Clem, Munnings, if Musket Man comes back wee'll see. There are horses that could be O.K. Smooth Air is a joke. Can't believe he was the fav. There's less in Cali, so if the East Coast horses are bad that speaks volumes for the West Coast. Einstien beat them for crying out loud.

[brianwspencer]

Very nice work!

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Originally Posted by brianwspencer

Very nice work!

Thank you Spence.

I'm assuming you meant to prop my typical stellar post and not Hockey's fine column.

[Sightseek]

I'm going to play devil's advocate, and while the article is good...we are almost accepting the fact that bad horses are winning races like the Suburban and Whitney because the good horses are being retired after their 3year old year.

I've only been following this sport since 2004 and Peace Rules would be a National Hero right now, when back then long time fans were saying he wasn't all that good....

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Originally Posted by SOREHOOF

Good article, agree with all. Bullsbay had a better shot than 18-1 in that race.

I thought the race was totally unbettable.

However, Jose Lezcano's ride on Smooth Air was one of the worst rides you'll ever see in a major race.

Bullsbay won the race with the dreamiest of dream trips ... and had Lezcano rode his typical smart race he would have been the one who inherited the dream trip. Instead he wanted to get pinballed in a 3 way pace battle - with two other faster horses - through very solid fractions.

[RockHardTen1985]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

I thought the race was totally unbettable.

However, Jose Lezcano's ride on Smooth Air was one of the worst rides you'll ever see in a major race.

Bullsbay won the race with the dreamiest of dream trips ... and had Lezcano rode his typical smart race he would have been the one who inherited the dream trip. Instead he wanted to get pinballed in a 3 way pace battle - with two other faster horses - through very solid fractions.

Dream trip of the century, dreamy ?

[The Indomitable DrugS]

It was similar to the one Dare And Go got when he beat Cigar in the Pacific Classic.

Sitting a clear, cozy, and unpressured 4th well behind a hot fraction 3-way pace battle.


Basically .. the 3 speeds were certain to stop in front of Bullsbay. All he had to do was win what amounted to a 3 horse field against two plodders in Dry Martini and Macho Again .. while allowed an unpressured early lead against both through soft early fractions.

Lezcano should have been about five to six lengths off of the pace - while still five lengths in front of Bullsbay - thus giving him the dream trip. But, Tizway was pinballed at the start - so Lezcano panicked and used Smooth Air to prevent Commentator from having a walk in the park lead. But Tizway recovered quickly from the bad start and rushed up and forced the pace while bumping with Smooth Air repeatedly into the turn.

[freddymo]

Yep that Whitney was a real "Humdinger" I was on the edge of my seat..I think the real winner was the Beattie's who own a Yongonuska 1/2 to Bullsbay who went on to win a stakes at Monmouth last week. With Bullsbay crushing that wonderful rendition of the Whitney, that 1/2 became all so much more valuable after she won her 5f overnight stake.

[the_fat_man]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

I thought the race was totally unbettable.

However, Jose Lezcano's ride on Smooth Air was one of the worst rides you'll ever see in a major race.

Bullsbay won the race with the dreamiest of dream trips ... and had Lezcano rode his typical smart race he would have been the one who inherited the dream trip. Instead he wanted to get pinballed in a 3 way pace battle - with two other faster horses - through very solid fractions.

Yeah

He was probably best. Of course, the fact that he finished BEHIND the other two he was 'dueling' with probably works a bit against that theory.

Don't you think that Rose GUNNED a bit too soon and maybe get the worst of it in relation to Macho Again?

[The Indomitable DrugS]

I thought Rose timed his move flawlessly.

You don't get passive in a situation like that and let closers get the jump on you when speed will be stopping in front of you.

You're on a long striding son of Tiznow .. and everything is falling in your lap - Rose would have been stupid to wait any longer.

I don't care if Smooth Air won by 8 or finished last by 45 ... he should have had a once in a lifetime perfect trip .. and he instead ended up in speed duel and was bounced around and bumped like a pinball in the first turn. That's what a bad ride is .. the result doesn't matter.

[the_fat_man]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

I thought Rose timed his move flawlessly.

You don't get passive in a situation like that and let closers get the jump on you when speed will be stopping in front of you.

You're on a long striding son of Tiznow .. and everything is falling in your lap - Rose would have been stupid to wait any longer.

I don't care if Smooth Air won by 8 or finished last by 45 ... he should have had a once in a lifetime perfect trip .. and he instead ended up in speed duel and was bounced around and bumped like a pinball in the first turn. That's what a bad ride is .. the result doesn't matter.

This is a good way to use your horse unnecessarily. That's why there's the HUGE distinction between the rest of the jockey colony and Dominguez. The others ride YOUR way, with is the standard in the industry, and Dominguez rides the correct way. This 'getting the jump on them' trip handicapping method is mind numbing to me; let alone, WRONG.

So, your point about Smooth Air is that he wins with a perfect trip? Do you typically bet horses that can only win when they get everything their own way? I don't.

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Originally Posted by the_fat_man

So, your point about Smooth Air is that he wins with a perfect trip? Do you typically bet horses that can only win when they get everything their own way? I don't.

I didn't bet him and never said he wins with a perfect trip.

I'll tell you this .. had Smooth Air been ridden with a morsel of sanity and got the dream trip ... I'd have been salivating to bet against him the next time.

I'm not exactly fired up to bet against Bullsbay next time .. because many will view his win as a fluke.

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Originally Posted by the_fat_man

This is a good way to use your horse unnecessarily. That's why there's the HUGE distinction between the rest of the jockey colony and Dominguez. The others ride YOUR way, with is the standard in the industry, and Dominguez rides the correct way. This 'getting the jump on them' trip handicapping method is mind numbing to me; let alone, WRONG.

So you would have preferred Rose wait and let the closers come to him or pass him on his outside - while he probably gets a long son of Tiznow in a jackpot behind a trio of complete stoppers?

He was 18/1 on the toteboard going into the gate ... and a 2/5 favorite real odds to win that race after 5 furlongs.

[the_fat_man]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

So you would have preferred Rose wait and let the closers come to him or pass him on his outside - while he probably gets a long son of Tiznow in a jackpot behind a trio of complete stoppers?

He was 18/1 on the toteboard going into the gate ... and a 2/5 favorite real odds to win that race after 5 furlongs.

The difference is one of degree and not of kind. Rose can ride the identical race positionally but he doesn't need to put the horse in a drive on the turn. The front runners were coming back and all he needs to do is let the horse go to them IN HAND. Loose rein him. This way, he makes the lead on his own without being asked and then has all he needs to hold off the closers. In fact, if he runs it this way, he doesn't completely gut the speed and his own horse at the same time, and make Macho Again look like he's actually doing something. Rose took a situation where he got a setup where the horse could've won ridden out, never being asked, and ended up using him excessively. I'm sure Motion is happy with the win and has no issues with the ride, however. And, this morning, he was on the show going on about how well the horse was doing. So, maybe he needed the extra work.