7/18 (CNL): Virginia Derby (G2); Virginia Oaks (G3)

[NTamm1215]

Originally Posted by SniperSB23

Have you looked at the PPs for this race? I don't buy that the Colonial Turf Cup was much tougher than an allowance against older horses at Delaware. Nicanor will be 8/5 and should be 5/2.

FYI, that allowance race at Delaware was a complete joke.

The 2nd place finisher, White Holiday, came back to finish a well-beaten eighth in a N1X at Monmouth on July 4. He was 1-14 prior to finishing 2nd to Nicanor.

The 3rd place finisher, Stevil, came back to finish a well-beaten third in a N1X at Belmont on his preferred surface. He was 1-15 prior to finishing 3rd to Nicanor.

The 4th place finisher, Rabbit Tracks, has not run back but has only a win against MSW company at Fair Grounds in six turf tries.

The 5th place finisher, Tatnall Street, set a slow pace in a 35k N2L claimer at Belmont on Sunday before fading to last.

The 6th place finisher, No Mesa With Me, has not run back and had been a relatively decent animal on dirt prior to the failed turf try at the hands of Nicanor.

The 7th place finisher, He's Solid Gold, has been pummeled in a N1X at Delaware and an optional claimer at Philly, both on the dirt, since losing to Nicanor. He is now 1-12 and 0-4 on turf.

The 8th place finisher, Blood Moon, was eased in a 7.5k N3L claimer at Penn National in his next start.

I think it's safe to say that the Colonial Turf Cup was vastly superior to the allowance race Nicanor exits. In terms of him beating older horses, that's exactly what Lime Rickey did two back at Belmont against a much tougher field.

I think Nicanor is a terrible bet at anything less than 8-1 and given it's a 1000% certainty he'll be less than 8-1 he'll completely beat me.

NT

[-BT-]

Originally Posted by NTamm1215

FYI, that allowance race at Delaware was a complete joke.

The 2nd place finisher, White Holiday, came back to finish a well-beaten eighth in a N1X at Monmouth on July 4. He was 1-14 prior to finishing 2nd to Nicanor.

The 3rd place finisher, Stevil, came back to finish a well-beaten third in a N1X at Belmont on his preferred surface. He was 1-15 prior to finishing 3rd to Nicanor.

The 4th place finisher, Rabbit Tracks, has not run back but has only a win against MSW company at Fair Grounds in six turf tries.

The 5th place finisher, Tatnall Street, set a slow pace in a 35k N2L claimer at Belmont on Sunday before fading to last.

The 6th place finisher, No Mesa With Me, has not run back and had been a relatively decent animal on dirt prior to the failed turf try at the hands of Nicanor.

The 7th place finisher, He's Solid Gold, has been pummeled in a N1X at Delaware and an optional claimer at Philly, both on the dirt, since losing to Nicanor. He is now 1-12 and 0-4 on turf.

The 8th place finisher, Blood Moon, was eased in a 7.5k N3L claimer at Penn National in his next start.

I think it's safe to say that the Colonial Turf Cup was vastly superior to the allowance race Nicanor exits. In terms of him beating older horses, that's exactly what Lime Rickey did two back at Belmont against a much tougher field.

I think Nicanor is a terrible bet at anything less than 8-1 and given it's a 1000% certainty he'll be less than 8-1 he'll completely beat me.

NT

THANK YOU!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

-bt-

[SniperSB23]

Originally Posted by NTamm1215

FYI, that allowance race at Delaware was a complete joke.

The 2nd place finisher, White Holiday, came back to finish a well-beaten eighth in a N1X at Monmouth on July 4. He was 1-14 prior to finishing 2nd to Nicanor.

The 3rd place finisher, Stevil, came back to finish a well-beaten third in a N1X at Belmont on his preferred surface. He was 1-15 prior to finishing 3rd to Nicanor.

The 4th place finisher, Rabbit Tracks, has not run back but has only a win against MSW company at Fair Grounds in six turf tries.

The 5th place finisher, Tatnall Street, set a slow pace in a 35k N2L claimer at Belmont on Sunday before fading to last.

The 6th place finisher, No Mesa With Me, has not run back and had been a relatively decent animal on dirt prior to the failed turf try at the hands of Nicanor.

The 7th place finisher, He's Solid Gold, has been pummeled in a N1X at Delaware and an optional claimer at Philly, both on the dirt, since losing to Nicanor. He is now 1-12 and 0-4 on turf.

The 8th place finisher, Blood Moon, was eased in a 7.5k N3L claimer at Penn National in his next start.

I think it's safe to say that the Colonial Turf Cup was vastly superior to the allowance race Nicanor exits. In terms of him beating older horses, that's exactly what Lime Rickey did two back at Belmont against a much tougher field.

I think Nicanor is a terrible bet at anything less than 8-1 and given it's a 1000% certainty he'll be less than 8-1 he'll completely beat me.

NT

By no means am I claiming that was a good field in the allowance race, all I am saying is that I don't buy that the Colonial Turf Cup was much better because I think the Colonial Turf Cup was a pretty crappy collection of racehorses. I don't think there is anything great about Nicanor but there isn't another horse in this field that I am buying into as a decent race horse which makes this race unbettable for me.

[NTamm1215]

Originally Posted by SniperSB23

By no means am I claiming that was a good field in the allowance race, all I am saying is that I don't buy that the Colonial Turf Cup was much better because I think the Colonial Turf Cup was a pretty crappy collection of racehorses. I don't think there is anything great about Nicanor but there isn't another horse in this field that I am buying into as a decent race horse which makes this race unbettable for me.

After reading that and thinking for a matter of seconds about the Colonial Turf Cup how can you not think Nicanor's allowance was inferior?

I'm not saying that the Colonial Turf Cup was a terrific race, but that collection of chumps Nicanor beat was ATROCIOUS. The Colonial Turf Cup was the Breeders' Cup Turf compared to that allowance race.

Affirmatif can't be a decent horse? I don't like Battle of Hastings is by any means a star or a good bet in this race, but he's a decent horse. Doesn't El Crespo or Florentino have some potential? Step back and look at these horses for what they are, mid-season 3YOs. Gio Ponti didn't look like a world beater when he was entered in this race last year.

NT

[SniperSB23]

Originally Posted by NTamm1215

After reading that and thinking for a matter of seconds about the Colonial Turf Cup how can you not think Nicanor's allowance was inferior?

I'm not saying that the Colonial Turf Cup was a terrific race, but that collection of chumps Nicanor beat was ATROCIOUS. The Colonial Turf Cup was the Breeders' Cup Turf compared to that allowance race.

Affirmatif can't be a decent horse? I don't like Battle of Hastings is by any means a star or a good bet in this race, but he's a decent horse. Doesn't El Crespo or Florentino have some potential? Step back and look at these horses for what they are, mid-season 3YOs. Gio Ponti didn't look like a world beater when he was entered in this race last year.

NT

We'll have to disagree on this one. Here were my thoughts after the Colonial Turf Cup:

http://www.derbytrail.com/forums/sho...97&postcount=4

So you're going to have a tough time convincing me now that it wasn't a horrible race.

[the_fat_man]

Originally Posted by SniperSB23

So you're going to have a tough time convincing me now that it wasn't a horrible race.

I certainly wouldn't try. We definitely need 'opinionated' players in the game. It's a GOOD thing.

[hockey2315]

I don't disagree that this field looks really weak (as does the entire division), but I'm not sure what Nicanor has ever done to garner the title of "the one who sucks the least."

[SniperSB23]

Originally Posted by hockey2315

I don't disagree that this field looks really weak (as does the entire division), but I'm not sure what Nicanor has ever done to garner the title of "the one who sucks the least."

I don't fault anyone for trying to beat him, I love trying to bet overbet favorites (which he assuredly will be) but in this case I feel like he may be the most talented in the field, he's run much faster paces than anyone in here and held on which makes him the most likely pace horse to be around at the end, and the rest of the field is so mediocre that I can't pick between them even if I did try and beat him. So when my options are bet an overbet favorite that I feel is the most likely winner or box the whole rest of the field to try and beat him then I take a pass on the race.

[Sightseek]

Nicanor is out. Leg injury.

[NTamm1215]

Originally Posted by SniperSB23

We'll have to disagree on this one. Here were my thoughts after the Colonial Turf Cup:

http://www.derbytrail.com/forums/sho...97&postcount=4

So you're going to have a tough time convincing me now that it wasn't a horrible race.

I'm not attempting to convince you that the Colonial Turf Cup was strong but that the allowance race you're comparing it to was absolutely dreadful and thus significantly worse.

All of this discussion about 3YO turf horses and their relative lack of quality should prompt all of us to give consideration to this being a Red Giant-like Va Derby and should further make even a C-list Euro worth a long look in the Secretariat.

NT

[SniperSB23]

Originally Posted by NTamm1215

I'm not attempting to convince you that the Colonial Turf Cup was strong but that the allowance race you're comparing it to was absolutely dreadful and thus significantly worse.

All of this discussion about 3YO turf horses and their relative lack of quality should prompt all of us to give consideration to this being a Red Giant-like Va Derby and should further make even a C-list Euro worth a long look in the Secretariat.

NT

That I definitely agree with. If Nicanor winds up in a speed duel and quits then anything could happen, there isn't much to separate the rest of the field.