Weekend Beyers

[NTamm1215]

Originally Posted by the_fat_man

This was a race where the on the pacers got the best of it, IMO, and the winner, while making a nice run from off the pace, was aided by an insidish trip (if memory serves me correctly). As for your guy, I wonder if the situation is different if Kent doesn't take over the pace setting duties and thus relieve him of the dirty work.

I'll take the runner-up over the winner of that race happily the next time they face off. Desormeaux blew the race apart with his move around the first turn, but it's not like Straight Story ever really got to relax. After loafing for the opening quarter they sped it up quite a bit. The two internal quarters between the the 2f and 6f mark were pretty strong and SS responded well despite being put to a drive with about 3fs to go and being carried to the 8 path by the future 35k claimer Al Khali.

Battle of Hastings got basically the same insanely great trip that Julia Tuttle did in the filly race. The difference is BoH has some talent. I do, however, think he's absolutely stretched to the max going more than 9 furlongs. Given the disadvantage Straight Story was at in terms of seasoning, I thought he ran really well and is certainly a decent horse.

NT

[CSC]

Originally Posted by NTamm1215

the future 35k claimer Al Khali.

NT

Aren't you exaggerating? 75K claimer maybe...still 3X eligible and if that's not good Wolfson could turn him into a BC winner.

[the_fat_man]

Originally Posted by NTamm1215

I'll take the runner-up over the winner of that race happily the next time they face off. Desormeaux blew the race apart with his move around the first turn, but it's not like Straight Story ever really got to relax. After loafing for the opening quarter they sped it up quite a bit. The two internal quarters between the the 2f and 6f mark were pretty strong and SS responded well despite being put to a drive with about 3fs to go and being carried to the 8 path by the future 35k claimer Al Khali.

Battle of Hastings got basically the same insanely great trip that Julia Tuttle did in the filly race. The difference is BoH has some talent. I do, however, think he's absolutely stretched to the max going more than 9 furlongs. Given the disadvantage Straight Story was at in terms of seasoning, I thought he ran really well and is certainly a decent horse.

NT

You still trip like a 'pace handicapper', Nick. I'd have thought that playing SA/HOL would've worked some of that out of you.

Look at the charts for the two mentioned races; they're completely different types.

Too bad TWINSPIRES doesn't have CNL.

[NTamm1215]

Originally Posted by the_fat_man

You still trip like a 'pace handicapper', Nick. I'd have thought that playing SA/HOL would've worked some of that out of you.

Look at the charts for the two mentioned races; they're completely different types.

Too bad TWINSPIRES doesn't have CNL.

I suppose the Julia Tuttle combination might not have been the best. I'm still a bit sore from thinking she was home free in mid-stretch. She did, however, have the race basically gift-wrapped for her when the leader went berserk in upper stretch. The race did completely collapse and that's where she fell apart. She's a filly who needs a perfect pace-setting/stalking trip at a mile.

If I've learned to read your charts astutely, then it would have to seem that the race flow didn't work well in Straight Story's favor, especially when you factor in the variable of how wide he raced the entire way. Did you not see the winner's trip being basically ideal?

NT

[the_fat_man]

Actually, without having watched her race, I thought that JT got all the worst of it, making the 1st move in what turned out to be a 3 move race. I've seen enough of these types of charts (they're probably the most prevalent in turf races) to know that when the flow is against it, there's nothing a horse can do.

I have to watch it again but off the chart I don't like SS' race. Not only because of Kent's move but it appears that Take the Points also 'moved' before him at a key point. SS appears to have gotten the best trip of the pace setters in a race that held well.

[Bobby Fischer]

before & after

[Left Bank]

Originally Posted by Bobby Fischer

before & after

I'd still hit it!!!

[Bobby Fischer]

Originally Posted by Left Bank

I'd still hit it!!!

yea but FATJessica is symbolic of knowing race flow generalities.

more cushion for da pushin'

[Bobby Fischer]

seriously race flow is awesome, and I didn't mean to get far off topic.
JESSICA


one of the "Traps" i see with race flow is once in a while mistaking the "bad horses" for being "against the flow". - like if the worst horses happen to be 1-2-3-4 for the race (which isn't that rare in a classy distance turf race)
and all those 4 quit - exactly like they should quit with their lack of talent - then you have to be careful about saying that the race flow was so favorable to those off the pace. It could still be, but what I am saying is that you always look at who is doing the quitting , not just where they happen to be bunched. The same visa-versa idea happens occasionally in dirt sprints where all the good horses happen to be 1-2-3-4 except maybe one good animal with a breathing or pallate problem that always quits.

Another thing to watch out for is giving undue credit to the rank horse or the knucklehead jockey who moves prematurely during the "rest period" before the last move. Yes, that killed his chances, but it is also easy to look great if you move early, and it is easy to blame a jockey and expect that next-out smooth trip. I think Mine That Bird was handled well by FATs and others because they noted the split fractions during the premature move and the raw times agreed with the race flow charts and the visual interpretations.

yet another , tricky situation is a kickback-heavy track such as turfway or woodbine. Anytime kickback is a factor you always have to watch the head on and the pan and try to form an opinion of whether the jockeys are riding wider. This is really less of a (direct) relationship to race flow.

Originally Posted by the_fat_man

Actually, without having watched her race, I thought that JT got all the worst of it, making the 1st move in what turned out to be a 3 move race. I've seen enough of these types of charts (they're probably the most prevalent in turf races) to know that when the flow is against it, there's nothing a horse can do.

I have to watch it again but off the chart I don't like SS' race. Not only because of Kent's move but it appears that Take the Points also 'moved' before him at a key point. SS appears to have gotten the best trip of the pace setters in a race that held well.

[Kasept]

Here are the Beyers previously listed as 'TBD'...

CNL-Colonial Turf Cup (G2): BATTLE OF HASTINGS 92
CNL-All Along (G3): WINTER VIEW 94
HOL-Affirmed (G3): GRAZEN 100
HOL-Cinema (G3): OIL MAN 87
WO-Singspiel (G2): MUSKETEER 97
WO-Queen's Plate (R): EYE OF THE LEOPARD 92