What if Invasor and Bernardini split?

[Dunbar]

Originally Posted by SniperSB23

In this era of racing to count on a top horse even making the Classic in early September is 2-1 so you'd have to like Bernardini at 6/5 to consider that bet. You'd be better off throwing your money at him at 6/5 in the JCGC.

You are looking at it the right way, but I don't think it's as drastic as you wrote.

You can get 2.4-1 now. If you thought there was a 50% chance Bernardini would make the BC Classic, then 2.4-1 is the same as 6-5 on race day. So I don't know what you mean by "to count on a top horse even making the Classic in early September is 2-1".

I would personally put the chance of a top horse not making the BC Classic at about 30% at this point. We are less than 8 weeks away. If my 30% estimate is right, then 2.4-1 now is roughly equivalent to 1.70 to 1 on race day. (70% of 2.4 is 1.7).

So, IMO 2.4-1 now is way better than 6-5 on race day.

--Dunbar