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#1
06-10-2009, 12:00 PM
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Smart Enuff is possible however he's shortening up to a sprint and I'm just not sure he's going to have enough pace to run at in this one. I'm not a huge backer of betting on Leo O'Brien trained horses but I like to use an angle on turf courses with cut in it, and Pegasus Tommy D. looks like he might have the advantage here with this angle.
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#2
06-10-2009, 12:07 PM
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Very interesting. I realize most here probably think Fairy Wand (R3) is a plug. I notice that she's cutting back, yet again, today and the very sage Albertrani is removing the blinkers. Now, Ramon has BLOWN 2 races on this filly by not being able to keep her on righty lead, and thus, running straight, in the lane. And, the reason she won't stay righty/straight is because she, apparently, doesn't like the whip. In other words, Ramon should've know from her race on 5/1 that she doesn't like being whipped and not hit her last out. YET, they try to fix the problem by removing the blinkers. I wonder if Ramon sticks her today.
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#3
06-10-2009, 12:39 PM
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Fats.. She's in the 4th. I thought she was OK here. Used her in the early P4 anyway...
__________________
All ambitions are lawful except those which climb upward on the miseries or credulities of mankind. ~ Joseph Conrad A long habit of not thinking a thing wrong, gives it a superficial appearance of being right. ~ Thomas Paine Don't let anyone tell you that your dreams can't come true. They are only afraid that theirs won't and yours will. ~ Robert Evans The Party told you to reject the evidence of your eyes and ears. It was their final, most essential command. ~ George Orwell, 1984.
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#4
06-10-2009, 01:16 PM
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Smart Enuf
I usually agree that when a horse comes back at a shorter distance than he had been running prior to the lay-off that he's almost always a play against as we're supposed to believe that it's merely a prep for longer, but I think it's dangerous to come to that conclusion without considering what the horse's prior performances tell us about his potential abilities at shorter distances. Smart Enuf has shown enough early speed in his races (albeit when the pace has been kind of slow) to lead me to believe that Donk is spotting his horse where he thinks he can win - not merely where he thinks he will get a good workout. Donk's numbers with horses coming off long lay-offs and turning back on turf are a bit perplexing - he's 0-for-5 but has hit the board 4/5 times. I think you can point to that stat both in favor and against Smart Enuf's chances. If he's around 8-1 I think it's +EV to expect SE to be ready to win here.
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#5
06-10-2009, 01:35 PM
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Fairy Wand will probably be tough in the 4th, but I'm willing to give the 3 a second chance at 18-1, basically treating her as a first time starter.
__________________
please use generalizations and non-truths when arguing your side, thank you
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#6
06-10-2009, 01:37 PM
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Quote:
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#7
06-10-2009, 01:39 PM
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Quote:
The 7 has some serious issues as well. She ducked out, ducked in, blew the turn, you name it and she did it.
__________________
please use generalizations and non-truths when arguing your side, thank you
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