Belmont Fractions

[CSC]

Durkin? Sorry if this has already been mentioned but I am just catching up with all the posts today but did anyone catch the comment Jerry Bailey made before the race that had Borel rode MTB in the Preak and not Mike Smith, he would have won. Amazing frankness on Bailey's part citing Smith using the 4 path for much of the race and Borel would have used the rail.

[Riot]

Originally Posted by CSC

Durkin? Sorry if this has already been mentioned but I am just catching up with all the posts today but did anyone catch the comment Jerry Bailey made before the race that had Borel rode MTB in the Preak and not Mike Smith, he would have won. Amazing frankness on Bailey's part.

I thought that a bit silly - drawing a horse in blank places during a previous race and assuming it would have won?

But I was too shocked that ESPN-ABC chose to open the broadcast with a list of horses that never ran again after the Belmont and were retired, because the race is too taxing.

Hey, thanks for feeding right into the animal rights bozo mindset about how destructive racing is to it's stars, ESPN. Nice job. Gag.

[CSC]

Originally Posted by Riot

I thought that a bit silly - drawing a horse in blank places during a previous race and assuming it would have won?

But I was too shocked that ESPN-ABC chose to open the broadcast with a list of horses that never ran again after the Belmont and were retired, because the race is too taxing.

Hey, thanks for feeding right into the animal rights bozo mindset about how destructive racing is to it's stars, ESPN. Nice job. Gag.

I never thought I would say this but I found myself missing Jim Mackay & Charlsie Cantey in the telecasts. On the Bailey comment, I wonder what Smith thought of it, he later tried to make ammends by saying Mike is a great rider, but that was obviously a little PR control. Everyone who knows racing knows Mike is ok but certainly not a great rider.

[philcski]

Maybe he cost himself second losing the photo, but he wasn't running down Summer Bird today. He was much the best. He was checked/steadied 5-6 times down the backstretch, shuffled back to 9th, yet still rerallied to win. Horses rarely win with that kind of trip.

You can say numerically the pace was fast but the fact is the frontrunners never came back (they ran a close 2nd and a close 4th) so he had to make a decision and he went for it when he did. The ride wasn't terrible.

[horseofcourse]

Originally Posted by philcski

Maybe he cost himself second losing the photo, but he wasn't running down Summer Bird today. He was much the best. He was checked/steadied 5-6 times down the backstretch, shuffled back to 9th, yet still rerallied to win. Horses rarely win with that kind of trip.

well, that kind of trip kept him from running a sub 23 second 5th quarter. Which when you're 5 1/2 back at the mile mark run in 1:37.86 mile to leading at 2:01.66 is running a sub 23 second 5th quarter. I'm guessing horses rarely win with that kind of trip either in a 12f race. when you go sub 23 5th quarter...I agree, you ain't running anyone down. There ain't anyone left to run down...only get run over.

[hurricanefrank]

Originally Posted by philcski

Maybe he cost himself second losing the photo, but he wasn't running down Summer Bird today. He was much the best. He was checked/steadied 5-6 times down the backstretch, shuffled back to 9th, yet still rerallied to win. Horses rarely win with that kind of trip.

You can say numerically the pace was fast but the fact is the frontrunners never came back (they ran a close 2nd and a close 4th) so he had to make a decision and he went for it when he did. The ride wasn't terrible.

This is well stated. The best horse today won the Belmont. IMO MTB did precisely what I thought he'd do: run out of gas the final eighth.

[westcoastinvader]

Originally Posted by philcski

Maybe he cost himself second losing the photo, but he wasn't running down Summer Bird today.

I was trying to beat the favorites, but double clutched and backed off on the other son of Grindstone.


I have many thoroughbred racing photos and art portraits in this room.

Summer Bird as best I calculate is a great great grandson of Secretariat, and also a great great grandson of Alydar. He has Northern Dancer on both sides, and of course the immediate connections to Kentucky Derby winners Grindstone and Unbridled.


Going way back, there is also Nashua and Mr. Prospector in the bloodline.

I wish I would have won my wager, but other than the money lost I have no problem with Summer Bird's win.

I'm not also 2nd guessing Borel's ride. He rode it as he saw it.

No tears necessary for the connections of Mine That Bird.

Winning the Kentucky Derby and hitting the board in all the Triple Crown races amounts to bragging rights for life.

[Dunbar]

Originally Posted by philcski

Maybe he cost himself second losing the photo, but he wasn't running down Summer Bird today. He was much the best. He was checked/steadied 5-6 times down the backstretch, shuffled back to 9th, yet still rerallied to win. Horses rarely win with that kind of trip.

You can say numerically the pace was fast but the fact is the frontrunners never came back (they ran a close 2nd and a close 4th) so he had to make a decision and he went for it when he did. The ride wasn't terrible.

Good stuff, phil.

Summer Bird could have finished several lengths better than he did with a less eventful trip.

--Dunbar

[Storm Cadet]

But if Dunkirk runs a 25 and 50 opening split, instead of a 23/47 split, then does he still have enough punch left with the speed of the track carrying him to the win, staying ahead of Summer Bird? Why is nobody questioning the splits run by JV in a mile 1/2 race?

[GPK]

Originally Posted by Storm Cadet

But if Dunkirk runs a 25 and 50 opening split, instead of a 23/47 split, then does he still have enough punch left with the speed of the track carrying him to the win, staying ahead of Summer Bird? Why is nobody questioning the splits run by JV in a mile 1/2 race?

Probably because they are too focused on your avatar

Originally Posted by Storm Cadet

But if Dunkirk runs a 25 and 50 opening split, instead of a 23/47 split, then does he still have enough punch left with the speed of the track carrying him to the win, staying ahead of Summer Bird? Why is nobody questioning the splits run by JV in a mile 1/2 race?

The track was obviously fast
so personally I think those fractions are
a deceiving.
Dunkirk got a very good start
and was out there running very comfortably.

[CSC]

Originally Posted by Storm Cadet

But if Dunkirk runs a 25 and 50 opening split, instead of a 23/47 split, then does he still have enough punch left with the speed of the track carrying him to the win, staying ahead of Summer Bird? Why is nobody questioning the splits run by JV in a mile 1/2 race?

The track was playing for speed all day and he looked comfortable doing it, I don't think it's advantageous to say horses of this caliber will go 25 and 50 and run better, a horse would be fighting a rider for 4 furlongs. In my opinion Summer Bird had the worst trip of the 3 horses yesterday. The results skew the criticisms after the race, majority of the times a horse that takes the lead at the top of the stretch as MTB did wins, if he won there wouldn't be any of this moved too soon debate, on the other hand it is very rare a horse passes 3 horses in the stretch to win the Belmont going away, at one point I thought Kent left him too much to do, but he wins and then all is well.

[horseofcourse]

Originally Posted by Dunbar

Good stuff, phil.

Summer Bird could have finished several lengths better than he did with a less eventful trip.

--Dunbar

Really? I think you could look at it like it actually helped him. You could say the events of the trip, forced Desormeaux to be the most patient as the horse was very keen with the blinkers. The events of the trip kept him in check. This was the only horse running the last quarter. I don't believe that at all...several lengths better with a better trip. That's like saying MTB could have won the Derby by 15 lengths if he wasn't squeezed at the start. That's just as wrong....the start helped him that race.

[Bobby Fischer]

Originally Posted by CSC

Durkin? Sorry if this has already been mentioned but I am just catching up with all the posts today but did anyone catch the comment Jerry Bailey made before the race that had Borel rode MTB in the Preak and not Mike Smith, he would have won. Amazing frankness on Bailey's part citing Smith using the 4 path for much of the race and Borel would have used the rail.

And really a dumb comment from Jerry Bailey too.
Smith saved ground around the first turn in the preakness. There wasn't room inside on the 2nd turn in the Preakness.

[CSC]

Originally Posted by Bobby Fischer

And really a dumb comment from Jerry Bailey too.
Smith saved ground around the first turn in the preakness. There wasn't room inside on the 2nd turn in the Preakness.

My only problem with Mike's ride was he had to check/steady MTB at the top of the stretch causing him to lose abit of MO. Other than that speculating on a rider using the rail and winning is abit of a stretch but I can understand the argument, basically he was saying Borel would have saved ground and the result would have been alot closer, saying he would have won was abit over the top.

[Bobby Fischer]

Originally Posted by CSC

My only problem with Mike's ride was he had to check/steady MTB at the top of the stretch causing him to lose abit of MO. Other than that speculating on a rider using the rail and winning is abit of a stretch but I can understand the argument, basically he was saying Borel would have saved ground and the result would have been alot closer, saying he would have won was abit over the top.

I agree with that.

The problem with putting blame on Mike Smith for getting to the rail was that Flying Private moved with him and took that path. There just wasn't room for 2 on the route that Flying Private took.

[Danzig]

i finally watched the race this evening after getting back from dinner and a movie (land of the lost, don't waste your time and money).
when i saw borel make his move i told my husband it was too soon. jocks ride this track like every other, but belmont is like no other in that you still have a quarter mile to go at that point.
borel rode the best horse in his mind, and i'm sure he thought the horse would duplicate his derby run, and fly by and win easy. so much for that thinking.

i wonder tho if now darley will be trying to buy birdstone.

[CSC]

If I had to rate Borel's rides for this triple crown and give it an overall grade, I would give him an A. Infact I can't think of another rider that rode this triple crown better than him, his ride was still better than Kent D's today and he lost the race.

[docicu3]

Originally Posted by CSC

Durkin? Sorry if this has already been mentioned but I am just catching up with all the posts today but did anyone catch the comment Jerry Bailey made before the race that had Borel rode MTB in the Preak and not Mike Smith, he would have won. Amazing frankness on Bailey's part citing Smith using the 4 path for much of the race and Borel would have used the rail.

If your talking about the computer simulation of the Preakness about 10 minutes before the Belmont on ABC where they broke down each step of the Preakness in 3D. I thought it was more about the path taken as in rail trip (ala Borel) vs the weave Smith used. When you corrected the equation for momentum gained and lost. A rail trip would have beaten Rachel using the race she ran, Of course there is no way to know if Rachael had even a little more juice that would have allowed her to hang on. I just watched again on TiVo in the hotel here and thought this technology made Trakus look like the original electric football board games from the 70's you turned on like a light switch when you were a kid. You have to see it again it was actually pretty cool

[10 pnt move up]

Originally Posted by CSC

Durkin? Sorry if this has already been mentioned but I am just catching up with all the posts today but did anyone catch the comment Jerry Bailey made before the race that had Borel rode MTB in the Preak and not Mike Smith, he would have won. Amazing frankness on Bailey's part citing Smith using the 4 path for much of the race and Borel would have used the rail.

Bailey is a comedian, but hey there is name recognition there.

A better question Bailey should have said after the race was if Smith had stayed on MTB for the Belmont would he have won the race, I know Borel is gods gift to riding and the fact he has been a so so rider in a small bond is just the breaks one gets, but Smith has one a couple races at Belmont, maybe even like 10 and he would not have made that move with a dead one run closer.