5/9 (HOL): Mervyn LeRoy H. (G2)

[King Glorious]

Originally Posted by 10 pnt move up

Hind sight is always 20/20 but I wonder if Valdivia should have used that horses natural speed a little more, those fractions were very soft. I hate when fast horses make the race a sprint to the wire.

He didn't give himself the best chance but I'd bet that if odds could have been taken at the 1/4 pole, Rail Trip would have been 1-50. If he was the kind of horse that he is supposed to be, he wins that anyway. In my opinion, Ellis wasted some races with him. The horse was going well and instead of stepping him up to take on better, he wasted a couple of races at SA. I feel like each work and race is taking something out of a horse and I don't think of them as reserves that can be replinished. I see them each as having a finite number of efforts in them and, especially when you get one that had whatever the issues he had that kept him off the track for so long, when you get them good, take advantage. Don't waste efforts. They found out absolutely nothing in starts four and five that they didn't find out in start three. Then they were talking about running him three times during this meet. That would have given him eight starts from the end of November thru the Gold Cup. I thought they were trying to go from overly conservative to overly ambitious.

[RolloTomasi]

Originally Posted by King Glorious

In my opinion, Ellis wasted some races with him.

I hear you. Running horses in their current conditions is never a good idea.

The horse was going well and instead of stepping him up to take on better, he wasted a couple of races at SA.

Yep, the Big Cap as his 4th career start was a no-brainer. Its not like he would have been stretching him out in distance significantly at the same time.

I feel like each work and race is taking something out of a horse and I don't think of them as reserves that can be replinished. I see them each as having a finite number of efforts in them and, especially when you get one that had whatever the issues he had that kept him off the track for so long, when you get them good, take advantage.

Yeah, cuz when you got an unsound one going good its best to rush them into top company even if it means sacrificing a little foundation and experience. Its not like running in a Grade 1 is any more stressful than a modest allowance race.

Don't waste efforts.

Yes, waste careers instead.

[King Glorious]

It's ok that you are stuck in the old ways and can't adapt to the way the game is played today. Conditions just don't mean as much these days. Was it last year when there were hardly any 2yo allowances run at Belmont or something like that so maiden winners often have to go straight to stakes company? You have eyes. You can see that the differences these days between stakes and allowance races is not like used to be. You saw that field yesterday. Was it really what you'd call a grade two level race? Not to me. Without knowing what the name of the race was, that could have easily passed for a Thursday allowance at Hollywood. It was not more stressful simply because of the title and grade. I just happen to think it's silly to waste two or three races getting this supposed foundation and experience (all the good it did him yesterday) when he's probably not going to have more than 6-7 more career races anyway. This is not the game of the past.

[RolloTomasi]

Originally Posted by King Glorious

It's ok that you are stuck in the old ways and can't adapt to the way the game is played today. Conditions just don't mean as much these days. You can see that the differences these days between stakes and allowance races is not like used to be. You saw that field yesterday. Was it really what you'd call a grade two level race? Not to me. Without knowing what the name of the race was, that could have easily passed for a Thursday allowance at Hollywood. It was not more stressful simply because of the title and grade. I just happen to think it's silly to waste two or three races getting this supposed foundation and experience (all the good it did him yesterday) when he's probably not going to have more than 6-7 more career races anyway. This is not the game of the past.

Well, typically one of the more significant differences between allowance races and stakes races is the pace. Not just in strict terms of the early fractions either. There is something to the notion of "cheap speed" and what I guess you'd call "quality speed". Its much less taxing on horse to set or chase a :48 half when the closest rival is sure to falter then it is to do so versus a classier horse who can respond when things heat up. Basically, Rail Trip (who's route efforts were much less impressive than his sprints) was doing to allowance foes what Ball Four did (and has done in the past in graded stakes) to him. He would have almost certainly run up the track in the Big Cap or something like the San Antonio when having to take it to horses like Well Armed and Motto Mundo, had he been rushed into those spots.

Instead, he has come along steadily and really has lost nothing of importance by finally losing a race (by the way, did you happen to give up on Azeri after she lost the La Canada?) other than technicolor dreamcoat of hype he's worn since the beginning of this year. Now we have a better idea of where he fits and nothing suggests, given the current makeup of the older horse division, that he won't make more noise in stakes routes at least in CA, maybe even win one or two. At the same time, as more learned posters than ourselves suggested, he may prove to be a top quality sprinter.

[10 pnt move up]

Originally Posted by RolloTomasi

Instead, he has come along steadily and really has lost nothing of importance by finally losing a race (by the way, did you happen to give up on Azeri after she lost the La Canada?) other than technicolor dreamcoat of hype he's worn since the beginning of this year. Now we have a better idea of where he fits and nothing suggests, given the current makeup of the older horse division, that he won't make more noise in stakes routes at least in CA, maybe even win one or two. At the same time, as more learned posters than ourselves suggested, he may prove to be a top quality sprinter.

You really are going to compare the loss that Azeri had to Rail Trips? Azeri banged herself out of the gate, got stuck behind a moderate pace, had to deal with traffic, only to just miss against Summer Colony who was a pretty good horse.

Rail Trip lost with a perfect trip yesterday. He is no where near that class of horse.

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by 10 pnt move up

You really are going to compare the loss that Azeri had to Rail Trips? Azeri banged herself out of the gate, got stuck behind a moderate pace, had to deal with traffic, only to just miss against Summer Colony who was a pretty good horse.

Rail Trip lost with a perfect trip yesterday. He is no where near that class of horse.

I guess you have to now add reading comprehension to spelling.

[RolloTomasi]

Originally Posted by 10 pnt move up

Azeri banged herself out of the gate, got stuck behind a moderate pace, had to deal with traffic, only to just miss against Summer Colony who was a pretty good horse.

Sounds like she coulda used a jock switch.

[10 pnt move up]

Originally Posted by RolloTomasi

Sounds like she coulda used a jock switch.

for sure, it happened three years to late, just think how good she could have been.

[asudevil]

Originally Posted by King Glorious

It's ok that you are stuck in the old ways and can't adapt to the way the game is played today. Conditions just don't mean as much these days. Was it last year when there were hardly any 2yo allowances run at Belmont or something like that so maiden winners often have to go straight to stakes company? You have eyes. You can see that the differences these days between stakes and allowance races is not like used to be. You saw that field yesterday. Was it really what you'd call a grade two level race? Not to me. Without knowing what the name of the race was, that could have easily passed for a Thursday allowance at Hollywood. It was not more stressful simply because of the title and grade. I just happen to think it's silly to waste two or three races getting this supposed foundation and experience (all the good it did him yesterday) when he's probably not going to have more than 6-7 more career races anyway. This is not the game of the past.

?? He's a gelding.

[10 pnt move up]

I cant blame Ellis for the horse losing yesterday or taking his time with a nice colt, but it certainly turned him into a paper Tiger. Ellis does frustrate me despite winning at such a high %, he is a bit like Harty IMO.

That race had to have taken nothing out of him, it was a crawl pace. They should wheel him back in two weeks in the Met where he fits much better, but I am sure Ellis has a race in August planned.

[King Glorious]

Originally Posted by 10 pnt move up

I cant blame Ellis for the horse losing yesterday or taking his time with a nice colt, but it certainly turned him into a paper Tiger. Ellis does frustrate me despite winning at such a high %, he is a bit like Harty IMO.

That race had to have taken nothing out of him, it was a crawl pace. They should wheel him back in two weeks in the Met where he fits much better, but I am sure Ellis has a race in August planned.

Probably another condition race at 1 1/16.

[Bobby Fischer]

he doesn't really look like a stakes horse unless the race is a stakes in name only, or void of speed.